ELECTION DAY NOVEMBER 5, 2013
The polls are still open in Virginia, but early voting turnout data suggests that Terry McAuliffe is doing substantially better than the Democratic ticket four years ago.
The number of early votes in counties that voted for President Obama increased by 48 percent, while early voting has increased by just 22 percent in Romney counties, as Michael McDonald documented for the Huffington Post.
The McAuliffe campaign goes further. According to the campaign, their models estimate that McAuliffe leads by 8,900 votes, or 7.7 points, among the 116,000 early votes counted through this morning. The campaign notes that their margin has widened further since yesterday.
Altogether, the early voting data is highly consistent with the public polling, which shows McAuliffe ahead by about 7.2 percentage points.