The New Republic

It seemed like a match made in neocon heaven. Less than one week
after the United States accused Syria of allowing terrorists to
enter Iraq and Saddam Hussein's henchmen to leave it, Farid Ghadry
informally unveiled his Reform Party of Syria. He used the occasion
of the American Enterprise Institute's second to last weekly
briefing on Iraqa series the institute organized to coincide with
the warto go public with his opposition efforts. Ghadrywho plans to
announce a Syrian government in exile in the coming monthsasked the
panel of Washington hawks, from the audience, the question on
everyone's mind: "What about regime change for Syria?"Ghadry's timing was good. The week before, Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld had sent the White House a "Road Map for Syria"over
a dozen largely punitive policy options spurred by the Pentagon's
assessment that American soldiers were endangered by Syria's
open-border policy during the war. The memo's proposals, The New
Republic has learned, include docking an aircraft carrier within
Syrian territorial waters, using proxies to undermine Syrian
intelligence agents inside Lebanon, interdicting Iranian flights to
Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, and sending American forces over
the Syrian border in "hot pursuit" of senior Iraqi officials.
Meanwhile, Congress was developing a set of new sanctions against
Damascus that were tougher than the limited bans on weapons and
other items the United States has already passed. Could there be a
better moment for the Syrian Ahmed Chalabi to emerge?

Unfortunately, finding liberal dissidents with a base of support in
Syria makes finding liberal dissidents with a base of support in
Iraq look easy. The Syrian opposition is overwhelmingly populated
by fundamentalists. And Syrian liberals have virtually no public
profile outside of Washington.

The similarities between Ghadry and Chalabi, co-founder of the Iraqi
National Congress, seem striking. Ghadry, like Chalabi, has had his
share of bad days in business. While Chalabi fled Jordan in 1989
after Petra Bank, which he set up, collapsed amidst allegations of
financial fraud, Ghadry owned Hannibal's Coffee Co., a chain of
American coffee shops that went bankrupt in 1996. Like Chalabi,
Ghadry walks and talks the language of liberal democracy. His
party's website boasts papers on reforming Syria's omnipresent
security services, which are similar in some respects to Iraq's
former Baath Party apparatus, and on establishing representative
government. The Reform Party of Syria has even drafted a model
constitution that would enshrine not only basic rights of speech,
assembly, life, and property but also more idealistic goals, such
as a pollution-free environment, fair labor practices, and access
to health care. Ghadry also supports peace with Israel. "Why do we
have to be enemies with our neighbor?" he asks, admitting that he
has been impressed by Israel's democracy and vibrant civil society
on business visits to the country. Ghadry, astonishingly enough, is
even a member of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

Other anti-government exiles have started to emerge as well. On
April 24, 120 Syrian exiles of all ideological stripes, ranging
from communists to Alawite businessmen, signed an open letter in
Al-Hayat, a leading Arab newspaper published in London, to Bashar
Assad, calling on him to allow exiled dissidents to return to the
country, to abolish military-type courts, and to dismantle part of
the state's security services. "The Iraqi war proved the security
services cannot defend the independence, sovereignty, and dignity
of Syria," the letter said.

There are limited signs that reformers may be growing bolder within
Syria as well. Prior to a crackdown in mid-2001 against civil
society organizations, Syrians had been forming small groups that
openly discussed politics, previously a rare occurrence. Some of
that ferment remains. In a rare interview last month with Syrian
reformers in Damascus, National Public Radio's Kate Seelye found
several people willing to publicly speak out against the political
repression pervading the country.

But, despite this minor thaw, American officials are deeply
pessimistic that Syria contains the type of leader the United
States is looking for. "We have done nothing to cultivate or
encourage ... opposition [to Syria's regime] either abroad or in
the country," says one Pentagon official. According to Frank
Anderson, the CIA's former Near East Division chief, the United
States "thought about changing governments in Iran, Iraq, and
Libya, but in Syria we decided that none of the options were more
attractive than the incumbents." In fact, several American
officials knowledgeable about Syria say that Assad's most liberal
opponents have no real political backing. For Syrian liberals to
create "any meaningful political opposition is ridiculous," says a
former American ambassador to Syria. After decades of being closely
linked to Lebanon, say American officials, many Syrians have come
to associate pro-Western liberals with Lebanese Christians, who
many Syrians blame for oppressing Muslims in Lebanon and for being
supported by Israel. Recognizing the Syrian liberals' lack of a
power base, Rumsfeld's policy memo did not advocate seeking out
Syrian exiles and dissidents for an opposition movement, as the
Pentagon did in the West Bank and Gaza after the president's speech
last June calling for a new Palestinian leadership. Nor did
Rumsfeld's plan set aside funding for dissidents inside Syria, as
Pentagon civilians advocate for the internal opponents of Iran's
ruling mullahs.

Ghadry illustrates the point. His organization is only now getting
off the ground. And a Syrian who belongs to one of Israel's main
lobbying groups is not exactly a strong political candidate in a
country that remains one of the most rabidly anti-Israel in the
region. As Ghadry himself admits, "The Syrians are not ready for
someone who wants to make peace with Israel."

Assad's most powerful opponent, admits one CIA consultant with
extensive knowledge of Syria, is the theocratic Muslim Brotherhood.
"The only opposition I know of in Syria is the Muslim Brotherhood,"
agrees former Assistant Secretary of Near Eastern Affairs Edward
Walker. Indeed, according to Youssef M. Ibrahim, a former Middle
East specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, Assad has
grown so fearful of the Brotherhood's ability to spread radical
Islam that he has begun making speeches denigrating religious
extremism and chastising Islamist-influenced medical schools for
mixing science and Islam.

The Brotherhoodwhich Assad's father, Hafez, banned are tough
characters. In 1982, their Syrian branch launched a bloody intifada
against the regime that included randomly assassinating members of
the ruling elite. What's more, they churn out a steady stream of
anti-Israel and anti-U.S. rhetoric. Even worse, Newsweek has
reported that American and German investigators believe that
members of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood played critical roles in
supporting and recruiting the Hamburg-based leaders of the Al Qaeda
cells that carried out the September 11 attacks.

For the time being, Bush administration hawks want to further
isolate Assad and thus pressure him to change. They believe this
pressure will lead more Syrian dissidents to come out of the
woodwork. Secretary of State Colin Powell's recent visit to
Damascus may underscore this strategy: By informing him that the
United States could turn the screws on Syria, Powell offered Assad,
like Yasir Arafat before last June's speech, a final opportunity to
change. Unfortunately, if Assad does not come around, Washington
may discover it cannot find anyone it likes to replace him.

By Eli J. Lake

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