POLITICS MAY 3, 2011
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On Sunday night, President Obama seized the brass ring that his two immediate predecessors, and dozens of their counterterrorism appointees, had longed for: the chance to appear in front of the nation and announce that Osama bin Laden was dead. Predictably, twelve hours had not gone by before commenters were either insisting that this success could be linked back to actions of President Bush, or debunking that view. It’s worth trying to unpack that argument in a bureaucratic, rather than partisan way. If, however, it takes talent to get lucky, it’s also worth asking what new talents were unleashed in America’s national security bureaucracy with this event, and how. While we wait for the historians’ judgment, here are three first-draft answers: post-9/11 intelligence reforms finally yielded results; better intelligence partnerships emerged from less torture, not more; and, when it was needed, command leadership was effective.
Intel Reform—Better Sharing, Better Use. Steve Coll writes in The New Yorker:
After President Obama took office, he and the new Central Intelligence Agency director, Leon Panetta, reorganized the team of analysts devoted to finding Osama Bin Laden. The team worked out of ground-floor offices at the Langley headquarters. There were at least two-dozen of them. ... The Langley analysts were one headquarters egghead element of the hunt. Similar analytical units at Central Command in Tampa and at the International Security Assistance Force in Kabul sorted battlefield and all-source intelligence, designated subjects for additional collection, and conducted pattern analysis of relationships among terrorists, couriers, and raw data collected in the field. … Overseas, C.I.A. officers from the Directorate of Operations and the Special Activities Division-intelligence officers who ran sources and collected information, as well as armed paramilitaries-carried out the search for informants from bases in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Units from the military’s Joint Special Operations Command, which includes the Navy Seals, Delta, and other specialized groups, joined in.
This may sound obvious and laundry-list-ish, but it seemed beyond imagining in 2002, when the September 11 commission called for “a better balance between security and shared knowledge” and on the president to “lead the government-wide effort to bring the major national security institutions into the information revolution.” To contemplate the CIA, Navy SEALs, and other agencies working together to bring off an operation that was watched on digital camera in real-time from the Situation Room, including the real-time identification of bin Laden’s corpse by analysts in the United States, is to realize that perhaps imperfect but real progress has been made.
Interrogation Reform—A Different Quality of Partnership. We’ve seen some diehard torture supporters arguing that, because some of the first clues to the identity of bin Laden’s courier came from Bush-era Guantánamo detainees, “torture worked.” There are two problems with this assertion. First, the Bush administration claimed to have barred the most objectionable interrogation practices in 2003 and extended Geneva protections to detainees in 2006—but, as Jane Mayer points out in The New Yorker, the real name of the courier apparently wasn’t obtained until four years ago. And on Monday, former Defense Secretary Rumsfeld said, “It is true that some information that came from normal interrogation approaches at Guantánamo did lead to information that was beneficial in this instance. But it was not harsh treatment and it was not waterboarding.” It’s thus hard to say the torture is what led to this weekend’s mission in Abbottabad.
Second, and more important, any tips from Guantánamo had to be supplemented by a flood of on-the-ground work, and presumably more interrogations, and more talk with friendly sources, and more purchased intel—much of which, apparently, came in the last eight months. Not coincidentally, we have seen considerable improvement in cooperation with Pakistani and Western intelligence agencies in the post-Bush years, as confidence in U.S. interrogation practices, and thus in the political safety of admitting cooperation with U.S. intelligence agencies, improved. I’m not arguing that everything is perfect now, just that no one has been sent to Guantánamo lately and global perceptions have improved, the results of which have been increased ability to operate on the ground and receive shared information
Military Command—More Effective Leadership. Navy SEALS and other Special Operations forces train intensively and perform impressively, no matter who is president—and they are trained to get in, kill, and get out. Still, Obama took steps leading up to Sunday’s mission as commander and chief that are important to point out. According to The Washington Post, he “had directed Leon Panetta, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, to make the pursuit of bin Laden the agency’s top mission. And he made the bold decision to try a more daring and more precise raid, limiting civilian casualties and providing better documentary proof than a pile of flattened rubble from a bombing. This bespeaks strategic sense, leadership, and—especially for a Democrat old enough to remember the image of helicopters grounded in the Iranian desert after President Carter’s failed hostage raid—political courage.
Heather Hurlburt is the executive director of the National Security Network.
Articles on the death of Osama bin Laden: Dalton Fury on the near miss at Tora Bora; Lawrence F. Kaplan asks if we'll overestimate the importance of bin Laden's death; James Downie on the legal justifications; Leon Wieseltier on the celebration in Lafayette Park; Jonathan Kay on the emergence of conspiracy theories; Paul Berman on the symbolism of bin Laden's death in the history of American democracy; Sean Wilentz asks if bin Laden's demise will loosen the grip paranoid politics has on America; David Greenberg on the only satisfying resolution possible to the story of 9/11; Louis Klarevas asks if the loss of bin Laden will hasten Al Qaeda's demise; Jonathan Chait on what bin Laden's death means; a photo essay on how America responded to the news of bin Laden's death.
TNR Classics on bin Laden and Al Qaeda: Peter Bergen on the Bush administration's failed attempt to capture bin Laden at Tora Bora, on the troubling merger of the Taliban and Al Qaeda, on Al Qaeda's revolt against bin Laden (co-authored with Paul Cruickshank), how bin Laden beat George W. Bush, and on bin Laden's activities before 9/11; Nicholas Schmidle on what the murder of a bin Laden confidant says about Pakistan; Michael Crowley on Robert Gates; David Cole on Obama's war on terror.
10 comments
A tip of the hat to Rumsfeld for not seizing the opportunity to exculpate the Bushies over torture. That's a real service to the historical record. Also, it's hard to believe that a college professor could re-organize intelligence flows to such good results, where the likes of Cheney failed. (I do believe it, it's just counter-intuitive.) How the heck did that happen?
- floydsm8
May 3, 2011 at 3:31am
Probably, floyd, because "the college professor" had a better sense of how to get and make use of intelligence than the bureaucrat/oil exec.
- Robert Powell
May 3, 2011 at 4:16am
Ultimately, this was a very risky mission that turned out to be successful. What would have been the outcome if Bin Laden had anticipated the very real possibility of a helicopter attack and had had heavily armed guards, with anti-tank type missiles, on the roof, along with heavy protection against entering the villa no matter what happened on the roof? And even if our guys had entered the villa, what would have been the result if the stairs were protected by heavily armed guards, gas, and who knows what else. Simply, Osama was sloppy in his own defense.
- PeteBeck
May 3, 2011 at 9:18am
I think the summary point Hurlburt's article is that the administration, through careful planning, none of what PeterBeck's potentially dangerous scenarios came true. I might have made the comments differently, imagining instead what the administration must have anticipated. After all, this was a success compared to Carter's Iran mission and Somalia. Don't forget the highly visible piracy take-down early in the Obama administration either.
- jet
May 3, 2011 at 10:37am
They observed that compound for a long time and made an appropriate plan. We don't know what additional contingencies they planned for. Bin Laden was not free to arm the place heavily as it had to look innocuous. Panetta was more successful than Cheney because ideologues like Cheney are indifferent to reality. An academic who is trained to seek and weigh evidence is not. The ideologues believe their own bullshit and are not alert to the indicia of success and failure. Nor do they adapt in response to those indicia. Their ideology tells them that if they do A -- something like, kick everyone's butt and talk tough -- then they will get B, the outcome they desire. If it doesn't happen, why, they just do more of the same because the KNOW it MUST work. See, e.g., Iraq war.
- roidubouloi
May 3, 2011 at 10:40am
I'm just glad that the Pakistani police/military did not resond quickly to many loud explosions in a quiet suburb - that would have been quite the scene, having to shoot our way out. Leon Panetta, for the record, is every bit the DC insider bureaucrat that Cheney was. 20 or so years in Congress, and OMB chief, for example, makes one a player, which he was/is. He is not, first and foremost, an academic.
- butchie b
May 3, 2011 at 2:08pm
Yeah, but he's not an ideologically driven wing-nut either.
- roidubouloi
May 3, 2011 at 4:37pm
I read the CIA group to hunt Bin Laden was shuttered by Bush years ago. At Tora Bora, the commitment to get Bin Laden was lacking according to Peter Bergen. Bush said during his presidency that he didn't think about Bin Laden much. Obama, on the other hand, made capturing or killing Bin Laden a priority. Either Obama is a better military leader, or had Bush, who is said to have the same intelligence, made the same comitment as Obama, he too would have succeeded. Why would Bush abandon the hunt for Bin Laden and invade Iraq?
- Nusholtz
May 3, 2011 at 5:21pm
Good points all. I was trying to be clever by comparing Obama to Cheney as perhaps more of a leader on these issues than Bush. But the comparison to Panetta is apt and interesting. Obama manages to let people like Panetta and HRC do their jobs while still clearly being in charge. >Why would Bush abandon the hunt for Bin Laden and invade Iraq? I think what this says is that Bush prioritized retribution for Saddam's threat to his father over retribution for a successful attack on the people of the United States, on American soil. I also think that the failed OBL pursuit and the Katrina screw-ups are similar; a failure to find, fix, and finish for two very different problems. Perhaps having things too easy one's whole life leads one to expect success without grim, dogged, determined effort.
- floydsm8
May 3, 2011 at 6:35pm
if the argument is made that Obama acted on intelligence that in fact Bush had acquired, that says it all.
- Nusholtz
May 3, 2011 at 8:54pm