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POLITICS JULY 11, 2011

An Admirable Move From the Country’s Biggest Teachers' Union (Yes, You Read That Correctly)

Last week, seven thousand delegates traveled to Chicago for the annual convention of the National Education Association, the nation’s largest teachers' union. Most of the meeting was in keeping with the NEA’s reputation for dogmatic opposition to education reform. New Business Item #93 slammed Teach For America, which recruits graduates of top colleges to teach in high-poverty schools. Another resolution described 13 things the NEA hates about U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan. One delegate running for a seat on the NEA executive committee gave a speech comparing anti-union politicians to Hitler. He was elected, defeating an incumbent, soon thereafter. 

But the most consequential vote of the convention was also the biggest departure from the union’s usual hard-line stance. After months of internal negotiations, the NEA endorsed the use of student standardized test scores, along with other measures, to evaluate individual teachers. Delegates who oppose standardized testing on general principle cried “sellout,” and worse. But by then it was too late. The last major interest group opposing rational teacher evaluation had bowed to the inevitable. In doing so, it gave a boost to President Obama’s domestic agenda, clarified the future course of public education, and offered a hopeful lesson for those who believe that facts and logic can bend the arc of public policy toward the greater good. 

 

SINCE THE RAPID unionization of the profession in the 1960s, teaching has consisted of highly-skilled, well-educated professionals stuck in locally-controlled civil service regimes, which were grafted, in turn, onto industrial unionism. The inherent contradictions of this peculiar combination ultimately led to the historic NEA vote in Chicago.

Union-dominated civil service meant that, from the outside, all teachers looked the same. Everyone had to get a bachelor’s degree, usually from a state university, and obtain a standard state teaching license before entering the classroom. Once they entered the system, everyone was paid according to the same union salary schedule, which doled out raises based on years of experience and credentials such as master’s degrees. There were few differences in rank or status, meaningful performance evaluations were non-existent, and it was nearly impossible to be fired for cause.

On the inside, however, teachers looked very different. Until the 1990s, standards and curricula were largely left in the hands of local districts and schools. Principals, in turn, gave individual teachers broad discretion over what happened every morning after students settled into their desks and the classroom door closed behind them. That meant huge variance in what students were taught, even among students with different teachers in the same school and grade.

It also meant huge variance in how well students were taught. Teaching is extremely complicated and difficult to master, particularly in America’s unusually open and pluralistic public education system. As with all high-skill professions, some people are much better at it than others. State licensing regimes didn’t change that, just as some lawyers pass the bar exam and argue in front of the Supreme Court while others take out advertisements on the back of bus stop benches.

But those differences were obscured by the seeming uniformity created by civil service and union rules. That fit with the values and ambitions of teachers' unions, which saw unity, and thus power, in sameness. United they stood, soon becoming one of the most influential forces in American politics. Local, state and federal lawmakers took their money and votes and kept the uniform system going in exchange.

Then, in the late 1980s, the educational standards-and-accountability movement took root. Spurred by fears of genius children being produced en masse by foreign competitors (Soviet and Japanese children occupied the roles now being played by the Indians and Chinese), state governments established academic standards for all children and began administering annual standardized tests to see if those goals were being met.

At the time, nobody seriously proposed using the tests to evaluate individual teachers—the unions made sure of that. But, largely for administrative convenience, some states began storing student test scores in large electronic databases. Meanwhile, Moore’s law was putting inexpensive computing power in the hands of economists with an interest in education. They analyzed hundreds of thousands of test scores, calculating how much students in a given classroom improved on standardized tests over the course of a year. The results proved what everyone intuitively already knew: Some teachers were much better than others who in all other respects looked the same.

These changes set in motion a rhetorical battle that lasted for the better part of two decades before culminating last week. Teachers' unions were caught in a contradiction. They needed to make a strong general case for the importance of teachers—otherwise, why hire more of them to reduce class sizes? Why increase their pay? At the same time, they needed to deny the variable importance of individual teachers—otherwise, why shouldn’t the best get paid more money? Why should the worst be allowed to teach at all? Once those doors opened, the whole system of unity through uniformity would be at risk.

Raw political power worked for a while. When the Bloomberg administration proposed using test scores to decide whether New York City teachers should get lifetime job security, the union ran to the state legislature and made the plan illegal. When California Democrat George Miller—as stalwart a defender of organized labor as one can find in the United States Congress—proposed new federal policies aimed at tying teacher pay to performance, he was chastised in a public hearing by Reg Weaver, then the president of the NEA.

But in the long run, the NEA couldn’t keep fighting on every front. Journalist Steven Brill published a long, influential New Yorker article about the New York City teachers' union’s role in keeping alcoholics, incompetents, and malcontents on the public payroll (as did NPR and The New Republic’s Seyward Darby, among others). In Los Angeles, the local union opposed an ACLU lawsuit aimed at ending the school district’s practice of laying off teachers based on seniority instead of performance. When an ostensibly liberal group finds itself alienating NPR listeners, New Yorker readers, and ACLU donors, it is in a lonely place indeed.

Meanwhile, other teacher organizations had ideas of their own. The smaller but highly influential American Federation of Teachers began taking steps to find common ground with education reformers. The Denver teachers' union forged an innovative agreement with management that used test scores, along with other factors, to set teacher pay. Just weeks before the Chicago NEA convention, Illinois Governor Pat Quinn, a Democrat, signed a sweeping, union-endorsed education reform bill that will tie teacher pay and job security to student performance. Other states and cities are moving in the same direction. The NEA could see where the crowd was going and decided that it needed to follow so it could lead.

 

THE VOTE WAS a boost for the Obama administration, which has made teacher quality a major part of its education agenda. More broadly, it’s a triumph of empiricism and common sense. Academic studies really can, at times, make a difference in the public debate, and even entrenched interest groups can’t defend the indefensible forever. In these times especially, this is welcome news.

This doesn’t mean, of course, that classroom teachers will soon be hired and fired solely based on how their students perform on standardized tests. Even the most aggressive reformers are only proposing that 50 percent of an individual teacher’s evaluation be based on tests; in most cases it will be substantially less. Many teachers, moreover, don’t teach in grades or subjects where standardized tests apply. The dominant method of teacher evaluation will likely be test scores combined with some form of structured classroom observation by outside experts.

Which is as it should be. Tests don’t measure the totality of student learning, and some standardized tests are cheap and poorly designed. The Obama administration has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into building better tests, but they’re still a work in progress. Nor do tests show how teachers support other teachers or help students develop things like leadership and character. That’s why the best teacher evaluation systems combine information from multiple sources including tests, observations, and peer review. Deciding how to properly weigh and analyze these variables will be no easy task. The coming years will also require difficult decisions about how to interpret this new information when deciding who gets to be a public school teacher, how they are trained, what kinds of responsibilities they are given, and how much they should be paid.

What they won’t involve is much more principled debate about whether using test scores and other methods to evaluate teachers is a good idea in the first place. The remaining holdouts will eventually give in. And that means that future NEA conventions should probably spend less time debating the health risks of soy-based products (New Business Item #9) and more time conceiving of what a union of non-uniform education professionals ought to look like. Teachers can still speak with a collective voice while acknowledging that some are stronger than others. Indeed, sophisticated new teacher evaluation systems will provide strong evidence that some teachers are, as unions have long insisted, drastically under-appreciated and underpaid. But only some of them. The era of unity through uniformity is drawing to a close.

Kevin Carey is the policy director of Education Sector, a think tank in Washington, D.C.

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24 comments

The best thing that could happen to education in this country would be for the federal government to butt out. Let the states follow their own path. If liberal states want their schools to be dominated by the teachers' unions, whose implicit motto is laziness, greed, stupidity and incompetence, then let them. If states want a meritocratic system, where capable teachers and educators are given preference over union sponsored idiots, then that is their right. People will settle the debate with their feet. Competition is the root of all excellence. Let's apply the principles of anti-trust to education.

- bulbman1066

July 11, 2011 at 2:25am

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What Kevin Carey reports is good news indeed. The teachers' unions are at long last up against the wall. It's time for American parents to move in for the kill and drive a wooden stake through the heart of the beast. Viva vouchers. The bottom line: studies have shown that teacher IQ is a much more important variable in determining school quality than is class size. We need to make teaching a profession like law or medicine, not a low grade industrial job the way it is at present. Fewer, better teachers are a starting point for improving American education.

- bulbman1066

July 11, 2011 at 3:05am

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Bulbman, The United States has historically had more state and local control of education than almost any other nation. The Federal government has never dictated credentials or curricula, and certainly not before the NCLB act. Furthermore the states that today want to de-unionize their teachers (Wisconsin, if you need a poster child) don't want to do so to create a more meritocratic, professionalized teacher corps, they want to do it to 1) bust the political influence of the unions, and 2) save money. Teachers union need reforms, but if you want to professionalize - a la medicine or law - any occupation, you by construction accept that professionalization has positive effects, but does not weed out poor performers in and of itself. Doctors cover for other doctors all the time. State licensing boards for physicians and nurses are controlled by (don't hold your breath), physicians and nurses. Medical mistakes or oversights kill thousands in this country each year. And the notion that the bar has somehow given us a uniformly competent, uniformly ethical, altruistic, legal profession - well, I've got a cracked rib right now, so it hurts when I laugh out loud, so please don't make me guffaw.

- IowaBeauty

July 11, 2011 at 9:37am

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I'm not a teacher. There's not enough money in the world to put up with what teachers in public schools go through these days. But I do worry that Carey places too much emphasis on test scores. Note that it's halfway through page two before it even gets a mention that they should only be 50 percent of a teacher's evaluation. The problem is that individual standardized testing was never *intended* to measure a teacher's progress. I don't argue--and I know no one who argues--that teachers should not be evaluated. The more methods, the better. But each method has its downside, so no single method should be dominant. Even observation by an outside party is tricky; a single bad day can tank a teacher's pay and reputation. Further, much is going on beneath the surface of both the best teacher's class and the worst teacher's class. All of this is just another reason that I would never, ever be a teacher--subject to the capricious whims of a fickle populace and judged by folks who haven't set foot in a classroom since they were on the other side of the desk. It's ridiculous. Further comment @Bulbman: Why don't you have a look at the data comparing "blue state" test scores with "red state" test scores? Both of them are "hampered" by unions right now, so they should be similar, right? They are not. As a Democrat living in a red state, trust me... If I had kids, I'd move ASAP.

- Wyntre

July 11, 2011 at 10:26am

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Maybe I've been lucky, and maybe this is just anecdotal data, but all my K-12 teachers, except one substitute who argued with me one time, were outstanding. They were kind, generous, personally involved in my well-being at just the right amount, and smart. I even starred in a Gifted Learners In Depth Enrichment (GLIDE) program in elementary school (where I learned Latin, advanced science & robotics, logic, how to produce a radio broadcast, and Greek mythology) and a decent G/T & AP curriculum in high school. And our sports teams were darn good, too. And this was all in South Carolina!

- Konstantin

July 11, 2011 at 11:17am

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Wyntre writes: "Further comment @Bulbman: Why don't you have a look at the data comparing "blue state" test scores with "red state" test scores? Both of them are "hampered" by unions right now, so they should be similar, right? They are not." I'd note that Texas has 3 of the top 10 high schools in the nation according to newsweek and the washington post in separate rankings. And Florida adds two more. Thus, half of the nation's top high schools are in backwater, no-state-tax states that generally frown on unions. Who else is in the top 10? Arizona, Kentucky, Alabama. And one is California. In the comfy suburb of Irvine. Thus, 9 of the 10 top high schools are in states that most here would consider racist hillbilly states teaming with toothless idiots.

- seattleeng

July 11, 2011 at 11:18am

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Dimbulb- Which studies? Were they performed by the Journal of Anecdotal Citations in Keeping with gOp's Foolish Filosophy? Your claim is simply not supported (see below for sources, as in, actual studies). Competition is the root of all excellence? What does competition have to do with teachers or schools? Or are you proposing treating teachers as the producers of students as commodities to be valued for their future economic output? Possibly you are suggesting that employers should be taxed for every year that they employ a worker that received a great education? That is a great idea, a nice and fat bonus paid annually to good teachers for producing top rate employees all paid for by corporations and small business owners. It would provide proper incentive to great teachers to stay in the field, as they would begin reaping huge benefits for every productive member of society that they had educated. If a good agent or headhunter gets to claim 20% of a client's pay then you can just imagine how quickly America's top CEOs would jump ship to become teachers; the money would just be too good to pass up. After only 20 years a great teacher could retire and live on the economic dividends paid for the objects of production that they have sent out into the workforce. Or maybe by competition you mean making it impossible for experienced and effective teachers to stay in the classroom because the lack of union representation will make them easily replaceable by recent graduates that work for less money. Your plan is brilliant-let states that wipe out teacher's unions have to pay a lot more for teachers that are willing to work with no job security and that can be fired (every time that the GOP drives the economy off of a cliff, or every time the wealthy need a tax cut) to hire an inexperienced graduate that will work for a lower salary. They will either be paying much more for teachers or they can prepare their kids for careers as manual labor technicians. Until you can figure out how the Invisible Hand teaches students, please shelve your competition nonsense. Sources: Schalock, D. (1979). Research on teacher selection. In D. C. Berliner (Ed.), Review of research in education (Vol. 7). Washington, DC: American Educational Research Association; Soar, R. S., Medley, D. M., & Coker, H. (1983). Teacher evaluation: A critique of currently used methods. Phi Delta Kappan, 65 (4), 239-246, Darling-Hammond, L. (1999). Teacher quality and student achievement: A review of state policy evidence. Center for the Study of Teaching and Policy: University of Washington).

- hepneck

July 11, 2011 at 11:18am

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Seattle- Of course, Florida, California, and Texas have some of the largest state populations. By your logic, should they not have more of the great high schools? Thank G*d that Newsweek or the Post know what makes a great high school. You should also check out the new Woody Allen movie, they both loved it! And they can tell you who Jennifer Anniston is dating who her newest BFF is!

- hepneck

July 11, 2011 at 11:30am

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It amazes me how many seemingly intelligent people buy the crazy notion that eliminating one of the only redeeming features of a career in teaching (job security) will improve our teachers. Making a profession that is already quite unattractive to the best and the brightest even more unattractive is completely wrongheaded. It is completely implausible that a bureaucracy can "measure" teacher quality, even if we could agree on what that means, without so many systematic errors and confounding factors as to make the result essentially meaningless. Perhaps a social scientist in a careful individual study can largely control for outside factors, but no creation of the political process can do so. Just look at our more successful competitors in Europe and Asia--they have high-prestige teachers with high job security, and they attract smart, motivated people. Whatever consensus Mr. Carey claims for it, reliance on testing is a cheap fix that won't fix anything.

- jhigbie

July 11, 2011 at 11:35am

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seattle, funny how you reference schools that are in places like liberal Austin. And basing it on a few select schools in wealthy school districts that can be self selecting (like Magnet schools) is ridiculous. Might as well say since all the Ivy league schools are in the Northeast people in the Northeast are inherently much smarter. Articles like this is why I would never want to teach at an elementary or high school in the states. My last semester I failed nearly half of my students in my advanced classes. Because I have tenure there will be no repercussions, the students failed because they deserved to fail. Semester to semster and year to year I teach the same basic material the same way (I tweak the presentation as best I can) but every semester the students and the classroom dynamics are different. I also taught for 7 years at the top rated school district in the world, in Shanghai, at key schools which are the top of the top. Many of my former students went onto Ivy league universities. I have seen the benefits and downsides of that kind of education (very intensive), the only thing I do know is that Americans, generally, do not subject their children to that kind of rigor. And I am not talking about that Tiger mom nonsense, (ie helicopter parenting) the woman is not even from China, but from Malaysia of chinese descent. I am also not advocating that amount of intensity either as Chinese students have the creativity beaten the hell out of them. However, some of these methods should be incorporated into inner city schools. All of the onus in China is on the student, the student is expected to excel. Chinese teachers have far less training and resources as an American. They also have far, far less shit to deal with. oh and hepneck, this is the problem with these people who think because they went to school that they can easily teach. They talk out of their asses. Of course China and Japan have national standards, it is not even a question not to have them. It is like Dimbulb doesn't realize people move, that if one child had one curriculum in one school and goes to another with a radically different structure he might either repeat what he has already learned while missing on elements that was already taught. I simply can't grasp the muddleheadedness of these people.

- blackton

July 11, 2011 at 11:53am

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oh, and this is for our resident trogs. This is from the Cato institute: Top U.S. School Districts Mediocre on World Stage Posted by Andrew J. Coulson A new study by the American Institutes for research compares the performance of 11 large U.S. districts to that of countries participating in the international mathematics test known as ”TIMSS 2003.” As with earlier international comparisons, American kids do better the less time they have spent in school. At the 4th grade, the earliest one tested, three of the 11 U.S. districts (Charlotte, Austin, and San Diego) score above the average of OECD countries participating in the test. (The OECD is a group of 30 or so nations, most of which are wealthy and industrialized, but a few of which are less wealthy transitional economies). By the 8th grade, the top two large U.S. districts (Charlotte and Austin) included in the report scored at the overall average of the participating OECD countries. But the above results overstate the U.S. districts’ achievement. That’s because many industrialized countries that typically outscore us (France, Germany, Canada, Ireland, Finland, Switzerland, Iceland and Poland) did not participate in the TIMSS 2003 test. When the U.S. is compared specifically to other wealthy nations, it peforms worse than the AIR report will lead readers to believe. Finally, U.S. performance continues to deteriorate as students progress through high school, and so the absence of high-school test results also gives an inflated impression of relative U.S. performance. In a nutshell, even two of the top large school districts in America can barely tread water internationally, when compared to students in other industrialized nations. So all of these countries that do have national standards are wrong to do so because they all do better than the United States....or something.

- blackton

July 11, 2011 at 11:57am

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seattleeng once argued about the tax code by citing as evidence the individual returns of a few American presidents. Her method of argument is bizarrely synecdochical.

- Konstantin

July 11, 2011 at 12:03pm

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And here is something that should shut up seattle and blubby: Shanghai trounced the OECD average: in reading, it got a 556, versus a 493 OECD average; in science, the score was 575 versus 501; and in math, there was a difference of more than 100 points – a 600 in Shanghai versus a 496 average. For a country that emerged only 30-plus years ago from the Cultural Revolution – when education was saturated with politics and many children lost years of schooling – the results left many observers with one question: How did they do it? Experts ascribe Shanghai’s success to China's assessment that academic achievement is foremost the result of hard work rather than a good teacher or innate talent. “Students not only work harder, but they attribute their academic success to their own work,” says James Stigler, a professor of psychology at UCLA who has conducted research on the Chinese educational system. “Chinese students say the most important factor is studying hard. They really believe that’s the root of success in learning.” That emphasis on hard work is complemented by several other key practices: active engagement by parents, early efforts to build up attention spans, and families' emphasis on spending long hours in school and on homework while doing little else. Parents and students alike believe that buying in has a payoff – future success. But in America: Blame the teacher. It is always the teachers fault.

- blackton

July 11, 2011 at 12:08pm

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I lived in Austin, Texas and school funding there is all over the map. In Austin the per student spending varied by a 4:1 ratio and was based on the independent school district (Austin had 5, yes 5 different ISDs in city limits). And wouldn't you know it, the Eanes school district, which had the highest per student spending (and property taxes rates along with the ritziest homes in town) in the area also had the highest student test scores and overall academic achievement in Austin, again by a long shot. How shocking. Not. Apparently money matters only in defense spending to the conservative brain, irregardless of reality.

- tmmats

July 11, 2011 at 12:44pm

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Thank you Blackton. Teachers argue that the problem they see here is a cultural context that either encourages or discourages educational achievement. Why do Asian (and to some extent Jewish) kids excel in school? Because they have better teachers? I doubt it. Because of genetics? I really doubt it. I think it likely that for them, education is a higher stakes game. Parents demand excellence from their children. How could we could we create an environment that demands excellence from our students? Because of our cultural differences from the Chinese, schools would have to take the place of parents. I think we would have to do several things: grade students more harshly and on a curve (expecting, in fact demanding, that a certain percentage fail), restore discipline in the classroom, and insulate teachers from parents (so that teachers could do what is necessary). Of course, this won't happen. The morons who constitute local school boards either demand that students be treated like the students in Lake Wobegon or that they be taught some kind of religious or new age dogma. I think local control is vastly overrated. The countries that are cleaning our clock basically don't allow local control.

- poldpf

July 11, 2011 at 12:58pm

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"I think it likely that for them, education is a higher stakes game. Parents demand excellence from their children. " Absolutely, but not just for the parents - it's for the entire community, including the schools. People respond to expectations and opportunities. Engaged parents set expectations; good schools both provide opportunities and set expectations. All of which, BTW, costs money. I also think we are kidding ourselves if we think that the "community" in which this conversation plays out is anything less than national. China is in the midst of the same great transformation that this nation went through in the last century - with large populations moving from an essentially agrarian life to opportunities in cities related to technological transformation. If you're Chinese and have a shot at a great school in Shanghai, the future surely appears hopeful and filled with opportunity, which hard work and brains can capture. Our culture increasingly does not believe that is the case - and for good reason - we "permit" less social mobility than almost any other educated society. I came from a dirt poor farm out on the prairie, but I had dedicated teachers, and a government that was investing in the future every where I looked (through the NIH, the space program, the clean air act, ...), including paying for much of my higher education. Any clod kicker kid who had smarts and a work ethic could rise through that system from a family whose parents had 8th grade educations, to a professional degree and a job with IBM or Merck or teaching at a University. Outside the children of middle class professionals, and even increasingly rarely there, it's hard to find 14 year olds with those kind of ambitions. Amongst the working poor, outright anti-intellectualism is the norm any more. This country is walking away from it's own future. No surprise it will belong to someone else.

- IowaBeauty

July 11, 2011 at 3:43pm

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Gentlemen, excellent posts here. Blackie good to see you again and your Mulitcultural Experiences. TNMats, poldpf, IowaBeauty - Good Points all. My two cents worth here: My 11th grade daughter is attending one of the best Public High Schools in the country. It is an International Baccuaralate (sp??) program with an international curriculm. Their core belief is not that the teachers teach, but that the teachers help the students learn. The responsibility is on the student to speak up when they are not learning. They have a pretty hard curiculem (sp??) and work the students hard. My Daughter does about 4 hours of homework a day, about 6 days a week. In addition the teachers are evaluated. 4-6 times a years the students papers are graded by teachers from other schools to cross check the grading policies of the teachers and to help build a consensus on the lesson plan, and materials. They require outside experiences and volunteer activities. And they have no sports. Sports are available from their home school district high school. And by the way, this school is running at average funding, in a small, old abandoned building. It did not take more money, smaller classes or technology. I think part of the sucess is the younger energetic teachers who are not in their home school districts, and free from the politics and seniority of their larger school counterparts. My daughter has been learning well from some of the younger female teachers, and just returned from a European trip with her Language Teacher. My daugher came home one day last year and told me about her Substitute Teacher who didn't know what to do. She had never been in a classroom in 10 years where every student did their homework and was prepared to discuss it. But let's be a little bit honest about this type of performance here, and in China. These students worked hard to get lucky and get in this school, similar to the Chinese Students that Blackie has taught. The less fortunate end up in the mainstream schools, and do not get the exceptional experience. America does educate all, and honestly reports the achievement of all for better or worse. Some of these other countries don't report the drop-outs or less successful. I do hope we can get the better Teachers. And better students do help make better teachers. It does make a difference.

- CRS9TNR

July 11, 2011 at 10:22pm

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seattleeng: "I'd note that Texas has 3 of the top 10 high schools in the nation according to newsweek and the washington post in separate rankings. And Florida adds two more. Thus, half of the nation's top high schools are in backwater, no-state-tax states that generally frown on unions." That's like saying that everyone in a bar becomes a millionaire when Warren Buffet walks in. It's obvious you can't judge a system by a few examples which may or may not be outliers. If you're going to use statistics, please try to use them responsibly. On the facts, there are many, many school systems that do much better than ours that have a high degree of government control and have strong unions--Finland is one example. And I think you'll find that many low-tax, low-union states fare poorly on national education measures. (You can find 8th grade NAEP math and reading scores at http://nationsreportcard.gov/math_2009/gr8_state.asp and http://nationsreportcard.gov/math_2009/gr8_state.asp.) Now, maybe maybe low-tax union-hostile policies have no effect on education. Correlation is not cause. Maybe the wealth of the local community far outweighs other factors which may have some marginal effects. But just saying "hey, that's a good school over there!" certainly doesn't prove much of anything.

- dsimon

July 12, 2011 at 11:45am

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Konstantin writes: "seattleeng once argued about the tax code by citing as evidence the individual returns of a few American presidents. Her method of argument is bizarrely synecdochical." The purpose of that was to show that, throughout time, millionaires have never paid big taxes. Ever. If FDR and Nixon were paying just 12 and 15% of their income in taxes, and they were under a magnifying glass, what makes you think someone operating in darkness would be paying more? The notion that wealthy people used to pay a lot in taxes is a myth. Yes, tax rates were sky high. But there were many, many more loopholes back in the day. Barack Obama's 25% effective tax rates is the highest any president has paid that I can find, save for Reagan. And whether or not folks like the school rankings, why is it our best schools are NOT coming from places with the strongest unions? In fact, the best schools are overwhelmingly coming from states with very weak unions AND most of the schools are private and thus probably don't have union teachers at all.

- seattleeng

July 12, 2011 at 11:51am

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seattleeng: "In fact, the best schools are overwhelmingly coming from states with very weak unions AND most of the schools are private and thus probably don't have union teachers at all." Scarsdale, NY has one of the best schools in the country, public or private. It's a high-tax state. It has (I believe) a strong union. It also happens to be extremely wealthy. You could say the same thing about Gunn High School and Palo Alto High in CA. I'd be pretty confident guessing that the best private schools also are made up of students from extremely, or at least relatively, very wealthy families. And how many schools fall into "the best" category? What do you mean by "overwhelmingly"? Surely the top 10 or 20 are not representative of a system. Every state is going to have a several wealthy communities that have highly motivated and high-achieving students with parents who can afford higher local taxes to pay for quality teachers. But if the quality of the statewide system is the issue, why not look at all of the schools--taking socio-eonomic factors into account--instead of what may be outliers? "The purpose of that was to show that, throughout time, millionaires have never paid big taxes." But again, a few examples doesn't make the point. It shows only that those few examples didn't pay big taxes. If you want to look at the data, why not look at the data instead of anecdotes? The use of a few examples to reach a preordained conclusion demonstrates a severe selection bias. I'm more than willing to look at real numbers, but presidents' tax returns can hardly be deemed representative--especially when there must be other, better numbers out there. But I fear that real numbers won't change what appear to be some people's immutable ideological beliefs anyway.

- dsimon

July 12, 2011 at 12:40pm

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Dsimon writes: "But again, a few examples doesn't make the point. It shows only that those few examples didn't pay big taxes. If you want to look at the data, why not look at the data instead of anecdotes?" Because the data hasn't been published prior to 1979, that's why. So, absent that data, why not look at presidential tax returns, adjust their salaries to modern numbers, and arrive at an effective rate for these folks? Are you surprised that Nixon et al paid so little? Don't you think if other millionaires were paying 30, 40 and even 50% in 1970 they'd be screaming bloody murder than the president was only paying 15%? Of course they would. Alas, we can conclude that for a millionaire in the late 60's, paying 15% of your income in taxes was about par for the course. And thus, Obama's paying 25% of his income in taxes means that among presidents at least, tax rates on millionaires are at a historic high. PS. If you know of a source of old tax returns, I'd happily go through them.

- seattleeng

July 12, 2011 at 5:01pm

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seattleeng: "Because the data hasn't been published prior to 1979, that's why. So, absent that data, why not look at presidential tax returns, adjust their salaries to modern numbers, and arrive at an effective rate for these folks?" Because there's no inherent reason to believe that presidential tax rates are representative of wealthy people generally, especially of very, very wealthy people. It's a completely unwarranted assumption. "And thus, Obama's paying 25% of his income in taxes means that among presidents at least, tax rates on millionaires are at a historic high." Well, that claim is demonstrably false regarding tax rates on the very wealthy. And I think you know it, since I'm pretty sure that we've been through this before. The effective tax rate on the top 1% earners has dropped substantially and consistently from 1995 (36%) until at least through 2006 (about 31%), so they're definitely not "at a historic high" regarding available data. http://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2009/07/yet-more-bad-arguments-against-taxes/198731/ But as I've noted before, real data doesn't seem to matter to some people. "PS. If you know of a source of old tax returns, I'd happily go through them." That's not the point. The idea is to use good data, not six or seven highly selective instances and use them as likely very flawed proxies. And, no response regarding the education "data," which was the real object of criticism. But I'm not surprised at this point.

- dsimon

July 13, 2011 at 1:13am

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There was nothing controversial about your statement re:schools. You cited a few hand-picked examples of good public schools. I never said they didn't exist. I went to good public schools myself. Rather, I noted that the top schools were overwhelmingly in red states and non-union. There's not much to debate there. You didn't refute my assertion, I'm not attempting to refute yours. They are different assertions. Re: tax code. The effective tax rates since 1979 isn't at issue here. There is tons of data there. What about effective tax rates from the 60's? Do you have that? If not, then let's not assert that back in the day people were paying a lot more than Obama. They were not. However, I can assert that Obama is paying more than most every other president in the last 100 years, except for Reagan.

- seattleeng

July 13, 2011 at 11:15am

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seattleeng: "You cited a few hand-picked examples of good public schools. I never said they didn't exist. I went to good public schools myself. Rather, I noted that the top schools were overwhelmingly in red states and non-union. "There's not much to debate there. You didn't refute my assertion, I'm not attempting to refute yours. They are different assertions." You misunderstand my assertion. My assertion is that your few hand-picked examples show little to nothing regarding comparing the efficacy of school systems in high-tax, union-friendly states versus low-tax, union-hostile states. If that's not what your examples set out to prove, then why even bother bringing them up? You can find good schools and bad schools everywhere, but that wouldn't demonstrate much if anything about the systems as a whole. "I can assert that Obama is paying more than most every other president in the last 100 years, except for Reagan." Again, that says little to nothing about rates on top incomes. It's simply wrong to assume that "president" = "top earners" without more data. Presidential salaries are hardly astronomical. Some may have a lot of outside income, some very little. Some may give away a lot to charity, some not. Some may have a lot of other deductions, some not. Carter's adjusted gross income was $189,000 back in 1977, despite a $250,000 salary. http://www.taxhistory.org/thp/presreturns.nsf/Returns/6D027F9A7188435985256E4300783D02/$file/J_Carter_1977.pdf So yes, it's ridiculous to use presidential returns as proxies for the very wealthy. You need to provide more data than "well, this person was president." And even rates among the very wealthy can vary widely depending on the sources of income. Why did Obama pay more more? He had some hugely well-selling books, so he made a lot more. No mystery there. You seem to imply that bad data is better than no data. That's simply not the case. Rather than drawing false inferences from what is likely unrepresentative data, we may be better off saying "we just don't know."

- dsimon

July 13, 2011 at 1:41pm

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