POLITICS JANUARY 23, 2012
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Hispanics, who were responsible for most of U.S. population growth in the last decade, have been a more important part of the electorate each election. Now the largest minority group in the United States, they are poised to play a potentially decisive role in this year’s contest between President Obama and his GOP opponent. This has been cause for concern by some Democrats, who worry that Obama’s record on immigration may depress his turnout and support within the Hispanic community; the data suggest, however, that they are worrying more than they should.
Consider first the national level. The Obama campaign will be relying heavily on the minority vote, which they hope will be larger in 2012 than in 2008. This is a reasonable expectation given historical trends, as the rise in minority vote share has closely tracked with the rise in minority population share. But there is no guarantee this will happen. Hispanics are the chief driver of the increasing minority population, and if their turnout falls off in 2012, the projected increase in the minority vote would likely not appear.
Sustaining high Hispanic turnout is necessary, but it is not sufficient. The Obama campaign also needs strong support from the minorities who do vote. My estimates suggest that Obama needs to get at least 75 percent of the minority vote in 2012 to have a secure basis for re-election, given likely drop-off in his white support. African-Americans are the biggest component of the minority vote and seem likely to give Obama the same overwhelming support they did in 2008.
But Hispanics, the second largest component of the minority vote, could be more problematic for Obama. They lack the special tie to Obama that black voters have and they have historically been more variable in their support for Democratic candidates. Moreover, there is significant discontent about Obama’s failure to deliver on immigration reform and the high level of deportations that have taken place on his watch. Obama’s approval rating among Hispanics has been hovering around 50 percent for a number of months, an unimpressive rating among a group that was supposed to be one of his strengths.
While Hispanics may not be completely delighted with Obama’s performance, though, they find him strongly preferable to his prospective GOP opponents. Recent data suggest that, despite all these factors, Hispanic support for Obama in 2012 may well replicate—or even exceed—the wide margin he received from these voters in 2008 (67-31). In a major survey by the Pew Hispanic Center—the gold standard for polling on Hispanics—Obama defeats Romney by 45 points (68-23), a margin 9 points greater than in 2008 (his margin is a little larger against other Republicans). The survey also finds the Democrats’ party identification advantage among Hispanics at 47 points (67-20), the greatest margin the Pew Hispanic Center has ever measured.
It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the current anti-immigrant tilt of the Republican Party, especially as displayed in the primaries, has decisively turned off Hispanic voters and thrown them into the arms of the Democrats. And the likely nominee, Mitt Romney, who is typically viewed as a moderate compared to the others vying for the GOP nomination, will have difficulty reversing this judgment. On immigration issues, Romney has been aggressively conservative in an effort to outflank his more ideological opponents. He’s promised to veto the DREAM Act if it comes to his desk as president, opposes in-state college tuition for illegal immigrants, and rejects any path to citizenship for the undocumented. More generally, he has consistently sneered at any sign of softness among his primary opponents on these issues, raising the specter of an increasing flood of illegal immigrants coddled by the law and provided with benefits they don’t deserve.
If Hispanic support for the President winds up as strong as it now appears and their turnout holds up—giving Obama at least 75 percent of what should be around 28 percent of the entire vote—the benefits to the Obama campaign would be huge. Crucially, it would give him considerable leeway to lose white support but still win the popular vote. In fact, my estimates indicate that Obama, with this level of minority support, could do just as badly as John Kerry did with the white working class (a 23 point deficit) and white college graduates (an 11 point deficit) and still defeat his opponent. The current level of Hispanic support for the President even suggests that he might come close to matching his 80-percent overall support from minority voters in 2008. If that occurs, he has even more leeway to lose white votes. Amazingly, he could approach the levels at which Congressional Democrats lost these two groups in 2010 (30 points and 19 points, respectively) and still win the popular vote.
Sufficiently strong Hispanic support thus sets Obama up nicely to win the national popular vote (though it does not guarantee it). But as we learned twelve years ago, the winner of the national vote does not always win the election. So, how important are Hispanics to Democrats’ efforts to carry swing states?
There is one area in particular where Obama’s advantage with Hispanics will be especially advantageous: the new swing states of the Southwest—Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. In these three states, Hispanics dominate the minority vote, which averages 36 percent of voters. These three states also happen to be very important to the Obama campaign. If Obama does manage to hold them in addition to the five "easiest" Midwest/Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa), he would likely be only be two electoral votes short of victory, even without Ohio or any of the New South states (Florida, North Carolina, Virginia). Conversely, if the GOP is able to break Obama’s hold on the three Southwestern swing states, the Republican path to victory becomes a lot easier. For example, if the GOP takes all three, plus Ohio (but no other swing state in the Midwest/Rust Belt), they can emerge victorious with just Florida, plus either North Carolina and Virginia from the New South.
But if the data hold up, that shouldn’t come to pass. The prospects simply look too good for Hispanic support for Obama. In that way, it could turn out that Republicans have sacrificed more than they anticipated by ratcheting up the anti-immigrant rhetoric during the primary season; they may have sacrificed the election.
Ruy Teixera is a Senior Fellow in the Center for American Progress Action Fund.
33 comments
Careful, Ruy. "Leeway to lose white support" turns into "Obama campaign dumping white working class" and "Democrats abandon white people" on cable news so quickly.
- chaitless
January 23, 2012 at 12:35am
Maybe Ruy is right. But maybe not. The majority of Americans of Hispanic origin are ideologically closer to the Republicans than to the Democrats. They have a strong work ethic and a love of family and community that give one reason to hope that they will resist the offers of Democratic politicians to provide them with government handouts in exchange for their votes.
- bulbman1066
January 23, 2012 at 4:17am
Bulbman, Go soak your head. The only work ethic the present-day Republican party understands is "you (Mr. or Ms. work-ethic-driven citizen) work for me (or on of my fat cat rich friends), for cheap, for exactly as long as it takes for us to break your union, reduce your salary, end your benefits, and finally send your job overseas." I am a Democrat - once upon a time, reluctantly, because of perennial muddle of a party the Democrats have been since roughly 1980 - but increasingly stridently and proudly so, and my work ethic is just fine, thank you. I have been either gainfully employed working for someone else, or self-employed continuously since my first job out of school. Entire business segments are more productive, and thus more able to afford to hire my fellow citizens rather than outsource their work, because of inventions and engineering on which I've worked. The difference between me and you is that I understand that for that to be true, in addition to my willingness to work (often long hours, and often away from home), I have benefited from enormous social support (education, government R & D spending, workplace regulation, ...) and one hell of a lot of luck. The Hispanic folk I know do indeed have great work ethic. They also want to live in a society that rewards rather than exploits that, and in a society that imagines their children are entitled to a shot at success, rather than continuing marginalization, because of their work ethic. Like I said, "go soak your head." It might bring down the swelling enough that you can open your eyes enough to see beyond the narrow slits of ideological blinders.
- IowaBeauty
January 23, 2012 at 7:38am
I'm nominating IowaBeauty to be Obama's Secretary of Labor during his second administration.
- Tristan
January 23, 2012 at 9:37am
Just noting that the same author wrote an article in December wit the title "Why Obama's Re-election Campaign Will Depend On the Youth Vote." http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/98937/why-obamas-re-election-campaign-will-depend-the-youth-vote The two theories aren't necessarily mutually exclusive, but still....
- dsimon
January 23, 2012 at 9:38am
preach it Iowa. Romney's response will be to trot out some banana Republicans like Jeb Bush (don't you know he married a Mexican, therefore if he speaks Mexicans will swoon) who will cut some Spanish language commercials. It will be excrutiatingly painful to watch.
- blackton
January 23, 2012 at 10:42am
I think Republicans have doomed their party over the long term (if not for this election) by rejecting the minority and youth vote. My question is why in the world the Obama administration has ratcheted up deportations. It seems crazy to me for lots of reasons.
- Erik_S
January 23, 2012 at 1:30pm
I'd second Iowa's statement. It really irritates me to no end when the dimbulbs of the world conflate hard work, love of family, sense of community with being Republican. In this instance they are mutually exclusive of one another. Nor are these personal qualities bestowed only upon card carrying members of the Right. Yet, I know plenty of GOPers that can't resist sucking at the teat of government largesse and getting easy handouts while simultaneously making colorful remarks about illegals 'this' or illegals 'that'.
- singlspeed
January 23, 2012 at 1:40pm
Blackton, Jeb Bush is sitting this one out. He's announced he's endorsing no one. Very interesting, no? My guess is that he doesn't want to endorse Romney on the chance that that "abomination" (as the repugs like to refer to Obama) might win the nomination.
- MOLLYSIMON
January 23, 2012 at 2:04pm
"They have a strong work ethic and a love of family and community that give one reason to hope that they will resist the offers of Democratic politicians to provide them with government handouts in exchange for their votes." So beautiful and poetic, bulbman. And, it goes without saying, those hard-working and family-oriented Hispanics don't mind Republicans who are committed to deporting their relatives who arrived in this country illegally (or, more commonly, overstayed a work or travel visa), who won't countenance giving citizenship to a soldier who wins a Congressional Medal of Honor if his parents brought him here illegally 20 years ago as an infant, who want to deploy the army along the Mexican border and who want to make English the official language so their elderly grandparents will be denied the right to understand materials about their Social Security and Medicare benefits. These Hispanics are so hard-working and intuitively Republican that they understand know that all of this bile is just a lot of big talk to soothe some agitated elderly white people in North Dakota or somewhere like that. Bulbman, let me give you a historical example that you hopefully will understand about Hispanics and their current failure to love Republicans. In the 1930's, American Jews were also overwhelmingly middle-class, hard-working and family oriented and ran lots of small businesses. Some of them were so committed to their small businesses and so opposed to government interference with those businesses that they successfully brought suit against those government programs, like the Schechter Poultry owners who got the Supreme Court to overturn FDR's National Recovery Act in 1936. They should have been natural Republicans, since they shared so many values with the Republican Party of their day. And yet, they kept overwhelmingly voting for Democrats. Did any of it have to do with the fact that the Republican Party in the 1930's was isolationist and mostly concerned with keeping the US out of a European war, and didn't feel the need to raise the mildest criticism of Hitler's Germany? Or that, once the war broke out in 1939, many of the Republican Party's brightest lights and greatest orators continued to push isolationism and intimated that Jews should watch out, lest they get the US involved in another European war? If you can understand why Jews had little love for Republicans in 1940, maybe you can understand why Hispanics have so little love for Republicans today.
- wildboy
January 23, 2012 at 3:17pm
Jews vote democratic because they are for social benefits for the needy. Jews are well organized and pro active. Listen to Ed Koch former mayor of New York City, in spite of the Obama Netanyauh unfriendship he will vote for Obama. To tell you the truth I have been following the mainly Mexican newspapers that are also discussing their own presidential candidates for this year's Mexican elections. Coverage of USA politics has been superficial. On the other hand Hispanics don't seem to be as well organized as they should be. There is irritation about lack of immigration legislation and the like. In a closed election everything goes. Mexicans in Mexico are very upset of the war on drugs carried by Felipe Calderon, and the increased criminality all over the place. Upset with over 50,000 dead. They blame the exorbitant appetite for drugs from Americans and lack of restrain By the USA administration. But Hispanics will go with local needs.
- JAIMECHUCH
January 23, 2012 at 4:05pm
Big question. How much influence exerts the secretary of labor in the Obama regime? And even less since there will be no second Obama administration.
- JAIMECHUCH
January 23, 2012 at 4:10pm
"Jews are well organized and pro active." "in spite of the Obama Netanyauh unfriendship he will vote for Obama." "They blame the exorbitant appetite for drugs from Americans and lack of restrain By the USA administration. But Hispanics will go with local needs." I think Jaime needs a better program to translate Chuch into English.
- wildboy
January 23, 2012 at 4:11pm
And the irony of ironies. The ten million illegals do the low paying jobs. Many of them have been in the USA for years. There are children and grandchildren of illegals. They pay social security and such. Send back to their relatives up to 20-30 billion dollars a year. On the other hand. It is said that the money laundering of drug traffickers saved the eruption of the banking system in the USA. Remember that illegal drugs is close to a trillion dollars business in the USA. Several Mexican drug traffickers make the billionaires list of Forbes every year. This the real world of Hispanics. Recently I went on vacation to north Baltimore. There were more Salvadoran illegals manning all of the low paying jobs that I could count. I guess this is one more lost cause. Hispanics my foot, and right now really hurts. And folks I went to a big shopping center where the eateries were. It looked like a gathering of The United Nations. And I bet you all illegals. Next.......
- JAIMECHUCH
January 23, 2012 at 4:28pm
wildboy. As long as you get the message all is good. Enjoy and go and find your peaceful girl.
- JAIMECHUCH
January 23, 2012 at 4:31pm
wildboy agrees with the republicans that you can not think straight unless it is English. But even in perfect English wildboy is unable to understand. Sorry for the distraction wildie but sometimes you have to help the slow . To paraphrase George Bernard Shaw, we are all Americans separated by a common language. Some are less smart but I will help you wildie don't worry.
- JAIMECHUCH
January 23, 2012 at 4:43pm
Reading this latest stream of consciousness, I can't help but wonder how many of those illicit drugs coming across the border have made their way into JAIMECHUCH's bloodstream.
- IowaBeauty
January 23, 2012 at 4:48pm
LOL, Iowa. On the other hand, Jaime's ode to the Illegals of North Baltimore is one of the best pieces of free verse that I have read in some time.
- wildboy
January 23, 2012 at 4:52pm
IowaBeuaty You are the perfect mate for wildboy. Assuming both of you are heterosexual. And if you are homosexuals we also approve of your union. But there is no excuse for both of you to be not too smart as you really appear to be. These is the way discussions degenerate when ignorants and not too smart resort to individual attacks. But what can you expect with aliases like IowaBeuty and wildboy.
- JAIMECHUCH
January 23, 2012 at 4:59pm
How does the analysis of the Hispanic vote hold up when you separate the Cuban and non-Cuban Hispanic vote?
- sighthnd
January 23, 2012 at 5:06pm
The Cuban is republican all the way. They are well organized, proactive, and have produced several elected officials. The non-Cuban are not as well organized or influential. Both tend to be family oriented and hard workers. are strongly Catholic. You have to separate those of Mexican descent that are larger in numbers. And will be sensitive to how illegals are treated. Since the majority of illegals are Mexican in origin. The non-Cuban are harder to identify.
- JAIMECHUCH
January 23, 2012 at 5:15pm
go crawl back under the rock you came out from under Church. Why do you even pay to read TNR since you are prime Redstate material? and go ahead and whine, but when anyone states that because a place looks diverse (you know, America is mostly immigrants) in race and ethnicity, it is to be expected that the non-whites are illegals. You truly are an asshat of a human being.
- blackton
January 23, 2012 at 5:51pm
Here's something I don't understand: If the Repubs value hard work so highly, why is incomed derived from hard work (i.e., what us regular folks rely on as income) taxed at higher rates than income derived from investments? It's a rhetorical question; I know the purported justification for the different treatment, that it helps boost investment, growth, etc. But even if it were true that the lower rate on investments was beneficial to the economy overall -- a proposition that has been disproven over the last 30 years or so -- it does not make moral sense, if we are supposed to be encouraging the value of hard work. Newt's whole shtick about how blacks should learn the value of working hard, develop a work ethic, etc., is completely undermined by the notion that their work is taxed at a higher rate than that of say....Mitt Romeny.
- shellski
January 23, 2012 at 6:23pm
Whatever the Hispanics will vote against Obama the Jobless President. blackton control yourself otherwise you will go to hell. calming pills will do you a lot of help, although you are a lost cause. Obama the Jobless President and blacktop the asshole . One thing to learn into your small brain if you have any, different opinions are to be respected, whatever your barking brings to your tongue.
- JAIMECHUCH
January 23, 2012 at 6:30pm
We have Now the three stooges IowaBeauty, wildboy still to be domesticated, and furious blackton that does not accept diversity. The three stooges and Obama the Jobless President. Lost causes. Scum.
- JAIMECHUCH
January 23, 2012 at 6:34pm
blackton Do you mean that TNR should discriminate about different opinions? That saying Obama the Jobless President is not the truth? blackton that makes you a bigot and a stupid one also. You are full of camel manure. And why my iPad keeps changing blackton to blacktop? Be rational . Enjoy life. Angry people tend to have more heart attacks. Be happy when you read my facts. Still yet Obama is the Jobless President, and that is a fact. If it hurts you scratch yourself. Three stooges..IowaBeauty (?), wildboy (to be domesticated), blackton (grrr)
- JAIMECHUCH
January 23, 2012 at 6:57pm
blackton no ignorants accepted, Mexicans speak Spanish not Mexican. Why do I waste my time educating ignorants. I can afford to being charitable. blackton always uses the stone crawling remark, plus the asshat wearing remark. It is time you progressed to the next level like ass head . And to make him irritate some more Obama is the Jobless President. Grrrrrrrr.....
- JAIMECHUCH
January 23, 2012 at 7:06pm
There may be some different kinds of discussion at TNR -- and also no uniformity of opinion, as there have been Republicans/conservatives here, butchie b (whose comments I rather miss) and seattleeng to name a couple. There is a difference between those two individuals and the disappeared but unlamented program mr. rationale, for example. The thing is, they are all pretty smart and weren't afraid to engage in arguments that consist of more than the repetition of one phrase.
- ironyroad
January 23, 2012 at 7:24pm
Sigh. One more time: illegal immigration, primarily from Mexico and Central America, has been very damaging to the African-American underclass and to a lesser extent the working poor and unemployed Americans in general. Not just in terms of jobs but in dilluting political power and lowering the quality or availability of social services. And on this issue liberals turn into the tea party. Research? Reasoned argument? Screw that - "we're a nation of immigrants!" "You racist!" "Problem solved - the recession has slowed illegal immigration to a trickle!" When SOuthern states ignore federal laws they don't like they're furious, when cities do the same with immigration laws and regulations it's great. The irony is that if we were talking about Algeria and Yemen rather than Mexico and Guatemala I'd bet TNR would be leading the charge to tighten up E-Verify.
- Lymon1
January 23, 2012 at 7:35pm
Different folks different strokes. My single phrase carries the message. I don't find anything illuminating from your comments. You talk a lot and says little. Of course your excuse is being uninformed. And at the end you become personal and puts down the one you disagree with. So don't be more Catholic than the Pope. Get off your preaching soap box and be real. Otherwise you attract characters like blackston. When I commented of people working at the eateries being people from all over, including Europeans or whites from Bosnia, blackston interpreted that illegals excluded whites. This shows his mental racist mind, not mine.
- JAIMECHUCH
January 23, 2012 at 7:45pm
Molly, I read an analysis that said Jeb Bush was going to endorse Romney but stepped back from that out of concern that Romney first had to show he could help himself. Otherwise, the endorsement coming now from Jeb Bush might smack of the heavy Republican establishment in a panic trying to bail out a hapless candidate who seems to be helplessly drowning.
- basman
January 23, 2012 at 8:33pm
Lemon 1 There are 10 million illegals. Have been some here for years. There are children and grandchildren of illegals. Mostly are Hispanic, Mexican descent. They came and are willing to do the work that USA citizens refused to do. They send money to their relatives in Mexico some 20 or more billion dollars per year. The legal Hispanic population is about 20 million. Hispanics have a strong family nucleus, and strong work ethic. They are Catholic. To blame the Hispanic illegals for the pains of African Americans is a lie. Their problems were here before the illegals. Sadly enough their problems continue and have been aggravated. Unemployment of young Blacks is 40%. crime is out of hand. Drug business is out of hand. Young Blacks keep killing each other. Do you really think that illegal Hispanics is the reason Blacks are in such trouble? Fallacy of another ignorant not too smart TNR blubber.
- JAIMECHUCH
January 24, 2012 at 4:16pm
Jaime: "You talk a lot and says little." You're so not qualified to judge, dude. I notice that you have a lot of posts on this thread and some of them are looooong. This is my second post, three lines. My previous one, six.
- ironyroad
January 24, 2012 at 6:14pm