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Go Home Is Barack A Typical Pol?

POLITICS JULY 2, 2008

Is Barack A Typical Pol?

BY NOAM SCHEIBER

Two weeks ago, Obama was “Obambi”--a guy so innocent he’d struggle to cross a major intersection, much less survive a match-up against the GOP. Then Obambi opted out of the public financing system and stiff-armed McCain on some town-hall meetings, and all of a sudden he was Lee Atwater. The Washington Post’s David Broder wondered whether Obama’s “motives will be accepted by the voters who are only now starting to figure out what makes him tick.” Within a week, Time’s Mark Halperin--whose CW-setting powers rival Broder’s in his prime--observed that Obama was looking “more like an ordinary politician than an inspiring leader,” thanks in part to his campaign-finance decision and some rightward shading on policy. Perhaps more tellingly, McCain abruptly made the contrast between his honor and Obama’s cynicism the central theme of his campaign. “For John McCain, country first is how he has lived his life,” read a “memo” released by strategist Steve Schmidt last Thursday. “We have seen Barack Obama forced to choose between principle and the interests of himself and his party. He has always chosen the latter.”

So, there it is: What “serial exaggerator” was to Al Gore, and “wind-surfing flip-flopper” was to John Kerry, so will “shameless opportunist” be to Barack Obama. To highlight the point for the non-discriminating and the mentally obtuse, the GOP even hauled out its chief meme-smith, Karl Rove, to pronounce it thus. To which the proper response for an Obama supporter should be: Right on! John McCain may win the contest over “who is willing to put principle above personal ambition and self-interest,” as Rove wrote in last Thursday’s Wall Street Journal. But that contest will have very little to do with who wins this fall’s election.

 

The easiest way to see this is to consider one of the most persistent poll results of the campaign so far: The percentage of voters who identify themselves as Democrats is eight to 15 points higher than the percentage who identify as Republicans. Even if the GOP were to somehow convince Americans that Obama was typical, they would have to paint McCain as phenomenally atypical to overcome this disadvantage. (An eight-to-15 point deficit in party ID means you have to clean up among independents.)

The current polling dynamic already reflects this challenge. McCain has spent the last week and a half highlighting Obama’s profound typicalness. During the same time, Obama has maintained or built on his five-plus point lead in national polls and gained ground in several key states. What we’re seeing, I suspect, is that the effect of Obama consolidating Democrats completely swamps McCain’s assault on his character.

But, of course, it’s highly unlikely that McCain will succeed at making Obama look typical or himself especially atypical. For one thing, Obama is young and black and exceptionally thoughtful and eloquent. He could spend every day between now and the election executing plays from the “typical pol” playbook (not a very interesting read, I assure you) and still look far from typical on November 4.

Likewise, it’s going to be exceedingly difficult for McCain to fend off the taint of typicalness himself. Obama will in all likelihood spend ungodly sums of money to soak him in it. And, to this point, McCain has made the job remarkably easy. McCain has spent much of the last few months moving rightward on issues like tax cuts, immigration, and energy, which is a double-whammy of typicality. First, it moves McCain closer to the party’s ideological mainstream. Second, it requires a decent-amount of flip-flopping--a chronic typical-pol maneuver.

To believe McCain can nonetheless get away with labeling his opponent a typical pol without having the charge boomerang on him reflects a gross misunderstanding of campaign journalism. The political press corps will gladly recite McCain’s typical-pol indictment of Obama. But, each time they do, they’ll feel obliged to catalogue McCain’s own offenses in this regard. In fact, this is already happening. An AP analysis condemning Obama’s public financing opt-out devoted almost as much time bemoaning McCain’s breaks with principle as Obama’s. This Monday, The Washington Post ran an article headlined “GOP Sharpens Attacks on Obama: Allies of McCain Casting Democratic Candidate as Unprincipled, Opportunistic.” The piece laid out the contours of McCain’s typical-pol strategy, then concluded: “Targeting a politician's character flaws is a time-tested strategy, but it is a complicated argument for McCain, who has also shifted his positions in the course of the campaign.”

This journalistic norm will ensure that, by Election Day, McCain will have ginned up at least as many stories highlighting his own expedient maneuvering as Obama’s. Which will be an absolute disaster for him. A “typical Democrat” probably beats even a maverick Republican in a year when Democrats enjoy an eight-to-15 point ID advantage. But a typical Democrat clearly beats a typical Republican. That’s basically the definition of a generic party advantage.

 

I suspect one reason pundits and the McCain campaign see so much promise in the typical-pol strategy is that they’re confusing the risks to Obama during the primaries with the risks confronting him in the general. There’s no question that getting stuck with the typical-pol label would have been deadly six months ago. Many primary voters believed Hillary Clinton had more experience, that she was more prepared to be president, that she would do a better job protecting the country. Obama’s greatest asset was the credibility of his change message. Had Hillary somehow managed to convince voters he was no different than any other calculating, self-serving politician--her likely motive in muddying the waters on Iraq and in goading him into various mudslinging exercises--there would have been little reason to favor him.

But the challenge is no longer to become the Democrats’ preferred change candidate; Obama is now the change candidate by virtue of being the Democrat. The challenges he now faces are: (1) Passing the “one of us” test--whether the concern is that he’s a Sharpton-esque race-man, or a Muslim plant, or an anti-American radical, or whatever. (2) Proving he’ll keep the country safe. McCain has to prevent Obama from clearing a minimal threshold; otherwise Obama wins. 

Against this backdrop, the typical-pol charge isn’t just ineffective; it’s counter-productive. Recall what McCain is alleging--that Obama will shift any position or abandon any principle if there’s an advantage to be gained from it. Well, if someone is prepared to take any position to succeed politically, then he’s probably not going to pursue some crazy out-of-the-mainstream policy, even if it’s one he privately supports. He’ll do what politicians always do, which is consult polls and follow public opinion. If Obama’s biggest problem is that he’s not typical enough, then the McCain campaign is helping him solve it.

Consider this passage from another recent Washington Post piece, this one about the skepticism Obama inspires among working class whites in the town of Findlay, Ohio. These are people who want the troops to come home from Iraq and who take a dim view of the Bush economic record. And yet they can’t get over rumors that Obama is “a possibly gay Muslim racist who refuses to recite the Pledge of Allegiance.” "People in Findlay are kind of funny about change," the town’s mayor told the paper. "They always want things the way they were, and any kind of development is always viewed as making things worse, a bad thing." Obama probably won’t win a majority of downscale whites--certainly not the ones who take these rumors seriously. But either way, McCain’s new line of attack can only help him. What’s McCain doing if not reassuring the people of Findlay that Obama won’t actually bring much change?

You almost feel sorry for the GOP at times like this (or you would if not for the last eight years): The Democratic nominee presents them with a frame that’s both more obvious and more devastating than anything they’ve imposed on an opponent in 20 years. (Barack Obama: Muslim. Black. Traitorous. Possibly Gay. Vote John McCain!) But it’s a frame that the conventions of good taste make difficult to invoke. So, what do they do instead? They bet the house on the one campaign narrative that blunts every piece of innuendo that’s capable of destroying him. Brilliant. Did I mention how few people still call themselves Republicans?

Click here
to see a heated response to this article by TNR senior editor Jonathan
Chait.

Noam Scheiber is a senior editor of The New Republic.

 

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

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55 comments

It is really rather amazing how a journalist can make a case for his own candidate on the grounds that he IS a typical pol when the candidate himslef is leading his campaign by presenting himself as being a change candidate. And then present it as a positively as this: - " Well, if someone is prepared to take any position to succeed politically, then he's probably not going to pursue some crazy out-of-the-mainstream policy, even if it's one he privately supports. He'll do what politicians always do, which is consult polls and follow public opinion. " You deserve to be Head Master of a school for contortionists.

- Ian Campbell

July 2, 2008 at 9:53am

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I think it says something about John McCain that this is the Republican attack line. He doesn't see Obama as a gay cryptoMuslim traitor, and he isn't willing to make such innuendos the basis for his campaign. Rather than mocking the GOP, one might laud their candidate for his sucess in improving the party's tone. He does think that Obama is just another politician, albeit an eloquent one with an interesting (compelling) personal story and historically groundbreaking candidacy. Many other people I talk to from Illinois, mostly Democrats who voted for Obama twice in 2004 (primary and general elections, not following Chicago election protocols by voting early and often), feel the same way.

- Zak

July 2, 2008 at 12:17pm

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"...yet they can't get over rumors that Obama is 'a possibly gay Muslim racist who refuses to recite the Pledge of Allegiance.'" hmmm...sounds hot! Anybody got his cell phone number? Only recently, in another thread, I predicted that, sooner or later, "possibly gay" would take its place in line of ridiculous rumors about Obama. Why? Well, isn't it obvious? Obama is strikingly handsome in an "exotic" (read, 'black') way. Gays must be falling over themselves. Actually, we aren't. Rove himself looks far more possibly gay (i.e. closeted) than Obama ever could, even if Barack dressed up in drag for "one of those notorious D.C. after-hours parties" and invited the press. It's far from the more outrageous appeals to prejudice, but if the Obama camp wants to squelch this one I suggest sending teams of gay men - truth squads, if you will - into the field in areas where people like the store-owner live and teach them about the difference between being gay and 'possibly gay.' Heck send along with some bona-fide possible gays for visual, aural, olfactory, etc. for comparison. Send Obama, send Michele, send Barney Frank, Hillary and, well, you name your own...

- tomeg

July 2, 2008 at 12:19pm

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I cannot accept the conclusion that Obama is a say-anything opportunist; he has repeatedly stood infront of large groups of powerful people (The Big Three, Jewish-Americans, Community Leaders, etc) and told them things to their face that they did not want to hear, truths which they decry. Like it or not, the simple truth is that Obama is a leader who is willing to stand up and argue for that which he believes to be the best position on an issue, and yet is willing to allow his opponents to make their case, give their arguments due consideration, and even allow himself to change his position if he feels he is in the wrong. I will admit, there is a very thin line between being open-minded and being a flip-flopping opportunist. But there *is* a line, and I think journalists, as overseers of the public and scrutinizers of the facts, need to pay this line its proper respect.

- GSpinks

July 2, 2008 at 12:37pm

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The author's intention appears to be deluding himself that Obama is not heading for a landslide loss.

- ron

July 2, 2008 at 3:09pm

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lets make it simple McCain = what can i do for my country

obama = what can my country do for me

the choice is clear -- McCain 08

- americafirst

July 2, 2008 at 3:37pm

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Clinton-Fallon 2008 -- Obama has become TOO "typical" TOO fast to be a "typical pol," in this sense, that essayists and commentators throughout the mass-communications media are not speaking of him as (Maybe the military clique governing this country should dub this phase of the "electoral process" as "Operation Bubble Burst?" --of Obama AND McCain). -- I continue to stand with my 3 June prediction that Obama will not be the Democratic Party presidential nominee. Best bet, it will be Hillary Clinton and a retired general or flag officer, with a genuinely distinguished military service record (in the manner of Fallon, if it isn't Fallon himself), will be nominated as the Democratic Party Vice presidential candidate. Further, this will be the winning pair in November 2008.

- p.

July 2, 2008 at 3:38pm

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You mentioned Obama 5 points lead. Well if all your arguments hold, this lead by all accounst should really be much larger. The fact that Obama was in a tied according to Gallup for three days and today is less than 5 points ahead should really be worrisome for the Dems. In a year when the White House should be a cake for the Dems, this polling this early do not support any of your arguments.

- sara

July 2, 2008 at 3:43pm

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"Ian Campbell" You should read the article more carefully. The author is not saying that Obama is a typical "pol". He's saying that the McCain camp is trying to label him as such, which if they want to win, is the OPPOSITE of what they should be doing. In the text you copied, he wasn't defining Obama; he was providing examples of what he would do IF he were a typical pol. Seriously, if you can't be bothered to read the article thoughtfully, I don't see how you can be bothered to write a comment about it.

- RobSoLF

July 2, 2008 at 3:53pm

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Tomeg... I also heard he's a hispanic illegal alien who sold his soul to Satan... ...all while still being a Muslim, mind you.

- RobSoLF

July 2, 2008 at 3:58pm

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Dude, I think it you who is deluded. McCain needed to have a lead heading into the emergence of the Democratic nominee, to have any chance. He ran against no one for four months and basically is running on the idea that he's a straight talker (evidence to the contrary emerging every hour on the hour) who can lead the military based on having been tortured and learning none of the lessons learned by most POW's, namely that if one is to be captured or tortured, it better be in the name of something bigger than a wild hare up the butt of the worst president in U.S. History. Barack Obama will win and win big for two reasons that are important in any leader, no matter how much Frau Clinton derided them. 1) He is very smart. 2) He is a compelling and charismatic leader. And, while he makes compromises (and would painted as a fringe character if he didn't), he has principles (as does McCain, but he is too busy proving to the far right that he believes everything Bush does is brilliant - thus killing his own case with independents that he is a "maverick") and he has the mind to deal with a complex world. McCain is getting blown out of the water. It will only get worse when he names someone like Mitt Romney VP, eliciting a massive yawn from a nation waiting for him to do something to remind us why he is even running in the first place.

- Der Bingle

July 2, 2008 at 4:18pm

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My criticism of Obama is based mainly on his dodging of the 2nd amendment issue. I will tolerate or even understand slips and slides on other issues, but not that one.

- redmanrt

July 2, 2008 at 4:18pm

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I love how in the last few days TNR has had nothing but stories about how everything is good for Obama.

- HellifIknow

July 2, 2008 at 4:19pm

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So, McCain should do what then? The whole point of this is to paint Obama as somebody far out of the mainstream, not that he is typical, and even that will get independents and moderate Dems to McCain. I admit it is a long shot, and that the McCain campaign is not looking good right now, but it is the best they have to go with until the debates later this Fall.

- Gabe

July 2, 2008 at 4:23pm

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Sara, you must be asleep at the wheel! Who cares what the spread is now...it only counts in November. If a week's a long time in politics, what's four months.

- Snerdgrasse

July 2, 2008 at 4:28pm

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BHO is a typical pandering political hack. McCain does not have to "paint" him as such, he is doing it himself. He should be 20 points ahead this year, but is in a statistical dead heat. He will lose like McGovern. He will never be elected to a national post, never. If there is this much "smoke" around him, imagine how big the "fire" is....Wright, Ayers, Dohrn, Rezko, Daley, Michelle, abortion, partial birth abortion, infantcide, for NAFTA, or is is against NAFTA, for Israel or is that against Israel, for the 2nd or against it, FISA....etc et al. Never going to happen, never.

- John

July 2, 2008 at 4:40pm

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Are you kidding me? McCain is the one heading for a landslide loss, and I've been predicting that about any GOP candidate for years for the 2008 campaign. In fact, if the Republican party even survives the damage that Neo Conservatives have done to this country, they will always be at a disadvantage at least for the next thirty.

- Alexander ML Jones

July 2, 2008 at 4:54pm

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Please, sir, if you're going to quote JFK, at LEAST quote him correctly. who'd ever guess a republican would use a Democrat's quote to attack another Democrat commonly compared to that very Democrat you're quoting? Oh wait.

- Alexander ML Jones

July 2, 2008 at 4:56pm

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So, how does it feel to be wrong?

- Alexander ML Jones

July 2, 2008 at 4:57pm

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-laugh-

- Alexander ML Jones

July 2, 2008 at 4:59pm

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The republican party has become a morally and intellectually bankrupt relic of our divisive past. They are so morally bankrupt that they shamelessly try to smear this man for not sticking with public financing all the while conveniently failing to take control of their 527 lunies and e-mail trolls. They would love to have their cake and eat it too...let Obama stay with public financing while McCain apologize for the 527's who he can't-and doesn't want to--control anyway. In other words they want another Kerry '04' type defeat. McCain nor his cronies cannot win on any of the issues, so the party that redefined Macavellian with their smear and scare politics now play their self rigtheous/bigot card...Obama can't be trusted to put America First. When last have the Republicans put America first...the've put Haliburton and the Elites first, they've put China and India first, they've put their reckless vision for a mideast utopia first. Let us shock and awe them this time into putting Obama in office.

- Small Town Dan

July 2, 2008 at 5:04pm

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The point the author misses is that Obama claims to be different. McCain claims the same thing, but he is not basing his entire campaign on it. If you base your campaign on being new and different, you have to have something to back it up. Obama has never made an effort to work with Republicans or even vote for a compromise. If he really was all about bridging the gap, don't you think he would have at least tried? All McCain has to say is- "I was there when there were tough compromises being made- where were you? Many politicians are not what they claim to be, but Obama is the polar opposite.

- ryano

July 2, 2008 at 5:23pm

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its quite obvious that this will just lay the ground for the attacks to come - the GOP aimes at demystifying him as a change-candidate, from the "right guy at the right time"-story, that makes obama invincible. meanwhile they are just betting on a national security issue (that doesnt mean an attack, there are a lot of scenarios), so that leadership and experience come into play. then they can play it down to the hamas-candidate-muslim innuendo. take a look at 2004: john kerry, french? why should the GOP change their game - thats all they got right now, a plan is not in sight.

- cd_ryan

July 2, 2008 at 6:10pm

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Repubs are not just going to portray Obama as a typical pol, they will portray him as a typical LIBERAL pol who is trying to sell himself as a moderate. And as for your poll showing him gaining ground, RCP poll of polls show Obama steadily sliding down this week from nearly 8 pt lead to less than six. Why? My guess is because of the Obama entourage bashing McCain's military service, which is typical LIBERAL behavior. And did you notice the 6 percent Nadar is getting? Obama's lurch toward center is irritating his ultra liberal supporters who thought they had a lock on this candidate. I agree. The Obama bubble is about to burst and then we'll have a real election as opposed to a "Star Search" contest.

- Dr. Vicki

July 2, 2008 at 6:24pm

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Yet despite all the reasons the author cited as to why Obama should be just running away with the race (as of 7/2/08), he's...not. Since the start of the year, the news has been All Obama, All the time. Did you see Obama's breakfast? What's on Obama's iPod? And so forth. Yet the polling consistently holds him at a 4-6% lead, statistically a tie. With all the blatant love he's received from the MSM, he should be destroying McCain. At the end of the day, Obama will show himself to be a left wing pol running against a center-right pol. Overall, America is more center-right, and should be over this Pokemon-like fascination with Obama come November.

- Martin Dekom

July 2, 2008 at 6:36pm

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A 5 point lead for an black presidential candidate IS a landslide at this stage in the race. No one should kid themselves, this is an uphill battle for Obama, even with conditions this good for Democrats. The Country is still divided and the race will be exceptionally close. Anyone counting on a landslide, for either cadidate, is just wrong.

- Prescient Being

July 2, 2008 at 6:38pm

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well for what it's worth, here's my two cents worth. Obama is a corrupt Chicago politician. He is very good at getting people organized and feeling good about themselves and he's good at making promises that people don't really want to examine (because then they'd have to examine why his sphiel makes them feel empowered). He's good at providing money making opportunities for his doners on the taxpayer's dime. He's not a happy guy, he's driven toward some messianic... thing... and he has an interesting history of lying about his family members in order to use them for some sort of symbolic purpose. His parents DIDN'T meet at Selma, his grandfather DIDN'T enlist on the day the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, his uncle DIDN'T help liberate the prisoners at Auschwitz. We also have a fair amount of Black Liberation theology to be considered (this may or may not be a sort of promised land but African-Americans are African-Americans, not Jews, and we don't live in an Old Testament theocracy ANYWAY!!!). His grand plans for Chicago failed in a big way (there's a Boston Globe article about the housing mess and ensuing criminal prosecutions for various developers) and unfortunently his plans keep getting bigger and his promises, wilder, and more detached from fiscal reality. We're in trouble here, especially with the weakening of our constitutional rights post 911. You have only to look at a politician named Heinrich Brüning to see where I'm going with this.

- Vicki

July 2, 2008 at 6:56pm

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"We have seen Barack Obama forced to choose between principle and the interests of himself and his party. He has always chosen the latter." This is demonstrably false. It was false when, after graduating from Harvard Law School, he returned to Chicago to work as a community organizer, passing up the big bucks on Wall Street or in DC. It was also false in 2002, when Obama (about to run for the Senate) took a strong stand against the war despite President Bush's high approval ratings and the fact that war opponents were routinely branded as traitors. There are undoubtedly other examples. I just wish that, instead of trying to show how clever how they are by writing these "strategy" pieces, our "journalists" would spend some time thinking and learning the facts, and then shining some truth on these ridiculous Republican talking points.

- Adam

July 2, 2008 at 7:04pm

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I hate it when a TNR article gets cross-linked at Real Clear Politics. That's when the idiots show up.

- Naomi

July 2, 2008 at 7:23pm

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Obama is a typical pol in many ways. But he also differs from most pols, especially the ones with experience, qualifications and accomplishments to run on.

- Real American

July 2, 2008 at 7:37pm

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Well, I don't believe that the Convention will change the nominee from Barack to Hillary. It's too late for that. Too bad it's too late. Hillary would have won. Barack will bury our chances in the presidential sweepstakes for yet another four years (let's hope not for eight). Obama's lead, in the serious polls, is awfully thin. Check the history... November-losing Democratic candidates often had bigger leads at this summer stage. Given Barack's dubious connections and personal history, add to that situation the inevitable "last minute" mind-changing which one can expect even from some Democratic voters and... what gives? Not good news.

- Skeptical

July 2, 2008 at 7:40pm

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We stupid voters understand that typical democrat pols will say anything to get elected and do whatever they want if they get in. As a polital pundit looking to justify your candidate, you probably intentionally overlooked that, right?

- bondf

July 2, 2008 at 7:43pm

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Oh yes....McCain has lived his life with honor and dignity and criticizes Obama for being a "regular pol!!!" Give me a break! McCain hasn't exactly lived an exemplery life. This has nothing to do with his military experiences, though he seems to get very upset if he feels that someone has questioned anything about it. It is simply that he lives in a glass house and should be careful of what/who he criticizes. Obama is a human being...a very bright one...displays dignity, ambition, integrity...but not perfection. I would not vote for someone who professes the latter attribute.

- comickey

July 2, 2008 at 7:47pm

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I would position Obama as "big city guy" out of touch with suburban auto drivers who are being crushed by $4+ gasoline. He'd be happy if they had to ride a bus.

- jack d

July 2, 2008 at 8:18pm

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Obama is not enough for America. Not enough experience, not enough accomplishments, not enough understanding of most Americans. He is less than a typical pol, because until this election, he has hardly done anything at all. Americans want more. Obama is less.

- Carolyn

July 2, 2008 at 8:59pm

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The Junior Senator from Chicago (and now self proclaimed Messiah) takes the cake for Flip Flops on everything under the sun. Depending on the day, he is the Conservative of Conservatives and the Next Day he is speaking in front of Planned Parenthood about his support for late term (partial birth) abortion.

- Randy

July 2, 2008 at 9:34pm

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Ian misses the point of the article. The argument isn't that Obama is a typical pol, but rather that McCain, by portraying him this way, has chosen an ineffective line of attack. I find this compelling, and it's just one of the reasons McCain was wise to overhaul his campaign staff today. The question becomes: is there any argument that McCain can make against Obama, who is proving to be even more effective in the general campaign than in the primaries. Here's a clue: if McCain picks a "ground-breaking" veep--a democrat, a woman, or a minority--it's a sign that he knows he's in trouble. If he picks Romney, it just shows he knows he needs money.

- Robert

July 2, 2008 at 9:57pm

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The message that Obama has campaigned on, is Change. But it seems that everyone loses sight of the change Obama is talking about. He wants to change the way Washington works. Specifically, he wants to change the hyper partisans nature of Washington. He's willing to work with republicans to get things done. He's pragmatic. This so called pivot to the center, is exactly the change that Obama wants to bring -- that its not about democrats or republicans scoring political victories against one another, it's about getting things done for the American people.

- Matt

July 2, 2008 at 10:10pm

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To respond to sara -- Actaully mcCain should be leading Obama in national polls AND in states like Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Virginia, etc. McCain had a three month head start at the general election. The fact that Obama is leading or tied with McCain is a bad sign for the republicans. It's a huge missed opportunity for McCain to preemtively define Obama while Obama was still campaigning against Hillary. Look at the battle ground states -- Missouri, North carolina, Indiana, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida, Nevada, Alaska, Michigan, New Hampshire. Only one of them is a "blue" state, the rest are red. THAT should scare the republicans.

- Matt

July 2, 2008 at 10:17pm

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..Hi There "P".. Yr Prediction "that Obama will not be the Democratic Party presidential nominee. Best bet, it will be Hillary Clinton and a retired general or flag officer,.... will be the winning pair in November 2008." ..Just wondering how u were able to see the future ? Take me along in yr time machine!

- Nara

July 2, 2008 at 10:56pm

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Polls are the alchemy of the 21st century - a pseudo-science that occasionally leads to interesting discoveries but cannot be relied on in any meaningful way. That said, if I were a professional political writer trying to make a point that suggests that McCain's tactics are not working against Obama, I would not link to a website that demonstrates that Obama's lead in the polls has shrunk from a supposed 12-15 points 2-3 weeks ago to an alleged 5 in the last few polls. If I were running McCain's campaign, I would not be anxious to change my strategy too quickly. At this rate, McCain would be on track to get about 115% of the vote in November.

- RRD

July 2, 2008 at 11:25pm

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Have any of the republicans ever thought that they just have a really bad candidate? He makes Bob Dole look like Ronald Reagon.

- Scott

July 3, 2008 at 1:01am

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The contest between obama and mccain (sorry neither warrants capitalization) is like the movie dumb n dumber. Dumb: mccain is almost arrogant in his demonstrated ignorance of almost all matters economic. He followed that with his widely reported complaints that economists didn't predict the housing slump, the gas cost or the national economic slowdown. One wonders why the senator also didn't predict them. He demonstrated poor judgement by co-authoring campaign finance reform, he tried to give us comprehensive citizenship for all illegals and lately he proposed a $300 million prize for a new car battery. News flash senator, batteries store energy they don't create it. Dumber: the continual chorus of "change" brayed by both obama and his patriotism-challenged apologists is an attempt to paper over obama's absolute and total lack of any experience related to executive branch empolyment. His only experience is that of a "Chicago activist" while his number of promises broken increases seemingly weekly. And just this week, it was reported that the senator received a special rate mortgage loan. Except for law school, obama has never been rigorously tested either mentally or physically. At least mccain can say he spent 5 years doing something which would make 4 years of presidential-level stress seem a relief. TS

- tim stevens

July 3, 2008 at 2:09am

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The typical pol thing only works if you are not running against a Senator who has been in Washington for over 20 years. The tracking polls don't mean squat even people at Gallup will tell you that. In every meaningful poll Obama is ahead. The last thing Obama will ever look like is a typical politician to the American people. He has a message and vision that is different than any we have seen in recent political history. Most people could care less where people get their money. People did not care when Kerry had a month longer to drag out his public financing than Bush when Bush was spending millions on attack ads.

- KQuark

July 3, 2008 at 2:42am

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You know Scheiber, the problem with your article is that it contains no virtue, o substance... and you think that's ok. I remember very clearly how you championed Obama in the primaries, claiming him as the great hope for progressive change, ideals, and standards.. someone who was mired in substance while Clinton in politics. Now, you've jumped ship and offer this shallow poltical diatribe about who Obama is now and a new proclamation of what matters most: that he WINS. Your column reveals what I've lamented about Obama all along: that his social movement rhetoric (and there was no action) was a simple political ploy that fooled Democrats and the media. This is ok to Obama, it is to you and your ilk. It is not, however, to me and likley many others. Be careful accruing such confidence from polls in July. And remember that it is the ideals and policies of Democrats-- true Democrats (not lame-ass centrists)-- this country needs, not simply an eloquent Democrat in the White House (my God the bar is so low after Bush). The Obama people voted for in the primaries is gone. He's lost his authenticity. Is this the candidate you want to win? I kinda feel betrayed. If progressivism and liberalism is gonna make a comeback, the time is now. Conditions are perfect. Obama could retain his movement momentum and primary authenticity, fight for what he campaigned about, but he's sold it out already.... and its only early July.

- Tammy

July 3, 2008 at 7:30am

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I see Ralph Nader as "the enemy of the good in pursuit of the perfect." Obama, having been in the Senate and a law school professor who's now running for President, doesn't have the luxury of pure idealism being the source of all his decisions. He can't please his entire constituency all of the time... and be President. He knows that. I know that. You should know that. Who's an atypical pol? Dennis Kucinich?

- JustinM

July 3, 2008 at 7:51am

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u forgot that nearly 30% of voters ID themselves as independents. and u also forgot that it goes by electoral votes not popular vote. so the heavy dem states like cal and ny will obviously go to the dems. but those 2 states represent a very large percentage of dem voters. so after those 2 states, the percentages will be much closer between party affiliation. this article is pure propaganda to try to discourage people from voting for mccain. so while u blast the gop for attacking obama (which really isn't an attack it is a contrast), u yourself are manipulating voters by lying and twisting facts. who is the real demon here mr. scheiber?

- dan

July 3, 2008 at 9:44am

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I think the flip-flop attack is a superb strategy that meshes beautifully with keeping Obama from crossing the minimal qualifications threshold. Chait frames the task as defining Obama as an "other." That's far too sinister. McCain doesn't need to go that route. He only needs to establish that Obama is too far from the mainstream with his proposals for massive tax increases and huge new domestic programs. Where a candidate is still mysterious, i.e. no one knows what his essential political goals and priorities are or where he will draw the line and fight rather than compromise, the flip-flop strategy is brilliant because it reinforces what an unknown quantity the candidate is, and keeps the candidate from establishing a core identity. The attack is particularly good, where, as here, Obama's only consistent narrative has been that he is an agent of change. The more Obama behaves as an ordinary pol, the more he undercuts the only core identity he has forged to date.

- Chad3337

July 3, 2008 at 10:57am

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The photo that accompanied this post was a literal flip-flop -- Obama is reversed, the flag pin on the wrong lapel and his wedding ring missing from the pointing hand. Was this some sort of test? Do I win a prize?

- cforeman

July 3, 2008 at 12:27pm

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"Many primary voters believed Hillary Clinton had more experience, that she was more prepared to be president, that she would do a better job protecting the country. Obama's greatest asset was the credibility of his change message. Had Hillary somehow managed to convince voters he was no different than any other calculating, self-serving politician--her likely motive in muddying the waters on Iraq and in goading him into various mudslinging exercises--there would have been little reason to favor him." This is precisely what I was telling people before Obama was decidedly the Democratic candidate! We need somebody who at least knows something about government beaurocracy (and how slowly it gets things done) and that means "someone with experience" though not necessarily "typical." Now Obama's changing his tune on how fast he'll bring our troops home, where Hillary was cautious from the start about promising something she couldn't deliver. Obama has ALWAYS known that there's no way he can pull the troops out in 6 months but the demographic that he attracts obviously doesn't care if he flip-flops as long as black man is elected. So NOW we're really in a pickle because people are going to throw their hands up in resignation and probably not vote at all...or maybe they'll vote for Nader who will be the spoiler again...and maybe Nader will win! This is what Ann Coulter probably meant when she wrote "If Democrats Knew What They Were Doing, They'd be Republicans."

- Margo

July 3, 2008 at 4:43pm

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Republicans are delusional creeps, based on the replies on this thread. I mean, there's no reason, there's no FREAKING reason to engage in any meaningful dialogue with these people, ever. John McCain? Are you serious? The ran the country for 6 years, and they failed miserably. End of fricking story. All the personality games, all the trite political games we play in the election season can't obscure the fact that right wing ideology is destructive as a governing philosophy. Right wingers: I despise you, deeply and profoundly. Stop ruining our country.

- Dave Blum

July 4, 2008 at 9:43am

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Chait states that BO is accused of being this or that and yet, when confronted with the honest truth about this candidate, the media fails to investigate, question, and report their findings. They want BO to win, but it's for the wrong reasons. Notice I said media not journalists. We don't have any of these anymore--just talking, writing heads in it for their won agenda. Remember the 57 states BO visited. Maybe he needs to mispell potato or potatoes. Who is this guy BO, really? The media questions McCain's birth yet here we have a guy with a real African father with G-d knows how many wifes!

- Mmarquez

July 4, 2008 at 10:15am

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Prescient Being is right! Obama is the underdog! Were he named Anyoldwhiteman-bama he'd be cleaning McCain's clock right now, with the race to tighten as we got near the finish. Obama has the opposite problem -- making enough general election voters comfortable with him so as to widen and solidify a slim lead.

- cforeman

July 4, 2008 at 3:55pm

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"In fact, this is already happening. An AP analysis condemning Obama's public financing opt-out devoted almost as much time bemoaning McCain's breaks with principle as Obama's."... I haven't seen this balance in the cable news programs I listen to during the day. There's much more focus on Obamas turn the the right then McCain's turn to the hard right...I suspect because the news bobble-heads see Barack's pandering as worse because of the populist halo he was wearing during the primaries...C

-

July 5, 2008 at 11:18am

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The disparagement of Obama as a typical politician was first made by Rev. Wright. As for the polls, I've distrusted them ever since they claimed Carter and Reagan were running neck and neck right up to the day of Reagan's landslide.

- nbarry

July 5, 2008 at 5:40pm

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