But there is also an element of romantic fantasy in the
belief that large numbers of Guantanamo
detainees are there by mistake. For the past six months, I have been studying
declassified materials from Defense Department reviews of Guantanamo cases: transcripts and records of
the much derided panels known as the Combatant Status Review Tribunals (CSRT)
and Administrative Review Boards (ARB). While my data are not yet fully
complete, the general picture of the people who went through these reviews, many
of whom have been released, is clear: About a third of detainees admit facts
that offer significant--though not always adequate--support to the government’s
contention that they are “enemy combatants.” About a third deny everything. And
about a third make no statements at all. (While some military interrogations
have been coercive and the CIA has probably crossed over into outright torture,
nobody has alleged that these particular statements, which took place in
hearings before panels of officers, were involuntary.) This approximate ratio
has remained relatively consistent even as the population at Guantanamo has shrunk.
The admissions vary a great deal. Some detainees proudly
declare their Al Qaeda membership and terrorist activity. Many more admit
fighting for the Taliban. Some Afghans claim plausibly to have been forced into
Taliban service. And a fairly large group denies membership or belligerence but
admits to some lesser degree of affiliation--staying in Taliban or Al Qaeda
housing or taking training, for example--that is at least suggestive.
The denials vary a great deal as well. In some cases, they
have the ring of truth. In other cases, they are so patently absurd as to warrant
quick dismissal; in one case, a detainee claimed to have been buying rare
collectibles—mummies, to be precise. In the vast majority of cases, they are
not easily assessed one way or another in the declassified material. A great
many detainees tell more or less the same small number of stories: That they
came to Afghanistan
to do relief or charity work, to study, to look for jobs, or to check out the
supposedly “pure” Islamic Taliban regime. My guess is that the overwhelming
majority of these detainees are lying--for the simple reason that it beggars
belief that the roundup of foreigners in Afghanistan
and Pakistan
could have nailed such a concentration of relief workers and students. But the
stories are probably true in a percentage of cases, and the government’s
evidence of their falsehood may in quite a few instances be weak--particularly
if one considers only the evidence that would be admissible in court.