Why does everyone assume Virginia is Obama country?
In the wake of Super Tuesday's split between Hillary Clinton
and Barack Obama, the conventionalwisdom
is that the rest of the February primary calendar favors the senator from Illinois. On balance,
the evidence is pretty strong. Obama does disproportionately well in caucus
states (Washington, Nebraska,
Maine), in states where African Americans make
up more than a quarter of the population (Louisiana,
31.7 percent; Maryland, 29.5 percent),
and in lily-white northern-tier states (Nebraska,
Maine, Wisconsin,
and to a slightly lesser extent Washington).
In fact, somewhat astonishingly, among states in which whites make up 89
percent or more of the population, Obama has won seven of eight contests so
far, losing only narrowly in New
Hampshire. Presumably, Obama will also manage to eke
out victories in Hawaii and the District of Columbia. (Asked
about his candidate's chances in his native
Aloha State, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe commented
dryly, "We hope we have some advantages.")
But there's one February state that doesn't fall neatly into
Obama's corner. That's Virginia,
which tends to get lumped in with Maryland
and D.C. into the "Potomac Primary" on Tuesday. But Virginia's
demographic profile is much less favorable to Obama than its Beltway cousins
and the Deep South states where he's won so
far. It's a border state, and only 19.9 percent
black. Its closest demographic parallels among states that have voted so far
are Tennessee, where Obama lost by 13 points,
and Missouri,
where he won by only ten thousand votes. In 2004, African Americans made
up 33 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in Virginia. If the proportion is the same this
year and Obama wins them 80-20, he'd need about 37 percent of the white vote to
win the state. That's certainly achievable, given his totals elsewhere. But
it's no sure thing. In Tennessee, he won only 26 percent of the white vote;
in Missouri
he won 39 percent. In other
Southern states his totals have ranged from to 25 percent (Alabama)
to 43 percent (Georgia).
Is there reason to believe that Virginia's
white Democratic electorate will be more predisposed to vote for Obama than it
was in Missouri and (especially) Tennessee? Yes, due to
the growing strength of upscale, educated liberals in the Washington suburbs. But while this
difference is real, it isn't overwhelming. Using income as a proxy, in 2004, 18
percent of Democratic primary voters in Virginia
made more than $100,000. This year, in Missouri
and Tennessee,
the comparable figures were 15 percent and 14 percent. That edge goes up
slightly when one includes voters making between $75,000 and $100,000 per year,
but those voters aren't as reliably pro-Obama as their richer counterparts. In short,
one would guess that Obama would do somewhat better among whites in Virginia than he did in Missouri
and Tennessee--but
not dramatically better, all else equal.
Nor do other indicators in Virginia point toward an Obama romp. No
polls have been taken in the state since October, when he trailedClinton 49 percent to 25.
Needless to say, those numbers are no longer accurate, but they do suggest a
strong base of support for Clinton
in the state--especially given that in 2004, 56 percent of Democratic primary
voters were women. And even if Obama wins the statewide vote, the delegate
count might not break his way, since his strongest supporters, African
Americans, are packed heavily into two of the state's eleven congressional
districts. Overall, Obama can expect to have the edge in four districts (the
two heavily black districts and two more in the Washington
suburbs), while Clinton can plan on doing well
in four heavily white districts in exurban and rural Virginia. The remaining three districts remain
up for grabs.
Obama certainly has some
advantages in the Old Dominion. It's an open primary state, so he can take
advantage of his support among independents and Republicans. Flush with cash,
he's advertising on television and Clinton
isn't. He has the backing of popular Governor Tim Kaine, and has six offices
open in the state. Her website, by contrast, doesn't list any, aside from her
national headquarters in Arlington.
But so far in the Democratic campaign, demography has trumped
endorsements, ads, and sometimes even organization. All things considered,
Obama should be regarded as a marginal favorite in Virginia, if that.
So why is Virginia,
a genuine battleground, being lumped in so casually with the other
Obama-friendly states? It could well be attributable to a phenomenon I blogged
about earlier. DC-based pundits say to themselves, "Well, I live in Virginia, and all my
friends are voting for Obama, so he must be the favorite." But that's a
misleading picture--in 2004, only 28 percent of Democratic primary votes in the
state were cast in the inner Washington
suburbs (ArlingtonCounty, Alexandria, Falls Church, Fairfax, and FairfaxCounty). There are still quite a few
beer-track, culturally conservative white Democrats in other parts of the
state. The primary can be seen, in part, as a contest between pundit Tom Schaller's
Virginia (wherein Democrats win by strengthening the Obama coalition of
blacks and upscale whites) and political consultant Dave
"Mudcat" Saunders's Virginia (wherein they win by peeling off
working-class rural whites--and by swearing. A
lot.) Neither one of these camps is clearly stronger than the other,
which is exactly why commentators should expect the Democratic primary to be
close.
The Obama team apparently feels more confident about Virginia than the above
analysis would suggest. They'd better, because they've done nothing so far to
temper the developing narrative that any Obama loss prior to March 4 would be a
big upset. In fact, they've stoked it. A leaked memo indicates
they expect to win, and campaign operatives told
the Washington Post's Anne Kornblut
and Alec MacGillis the same thing. The Clinton campaign, by contrast, seems to be
deliberately nursing that narrative, while making a strong below-the-radar play
for Virginia (Clinton is holding
a rally in Arlington today, and visiting the state Jefferson-Jackson Dinner
in Richmond on Saturday). An unexpected Clinton
win in Virginia--which should not really be
unexpected at all--might be enough to deflate Obama's strong February, and get
her through to March 4, when the contests Texas
and Ohio look
like more favorable terrain.
Josh Patashnik
is a reporter–researcher at The New Republic.