POLITICS JULY 24, 2008
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WASHINGTON -- The conventional wisdom on certain subjects is so deeply rooted that no amount of evidence disturbs its hold. That's how it is with those dreary predictions that young Americans just won't vote.
Since the late 1960s, the same chorus has been heard from election to election: The young don't care. They're disengaged. They're too wrapped up in their music, their favorite sports and their parties to care about politics. Predicting that the young will vote in large numbers is like saying the Cubs will finally win the World Series.
As it happens, the Cubs are doing well this season, and the evidence is overwhelming that this year, the young really will vote in large numbers--and they just might tip the election.
The trend started four years ago. According to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, or CIRCLE, electoral participation among 18- to 24-year-olds rose from 36 percent in 2000 to 47 percent in 2004. For the larger 18 to 29 group, participation rose from 40 percent to 49 percent.
The 2006 midterm election saw a larger increase in off-year voting among the under-30s than any other age group.
Then came this year's primaries: According to CIRCLE, the turnout rate for the under-30s nearly doubled between 2000 and 2008, from 9 percent to 17 percent.
None of this means that young people will vote at the same rate as middle-aged people or senior citizens. The young move around more, and voter registration laws in most states make it harder for the footloose to exercise their rights. And it's long been the case that citizens become more involved in politics when they settle down and develop stronger community ties.
Nonetheless, on present trends, it's a near certainty that young people's overall share of the electorate will rise substantially this year.
Defying stereotypes, the young are more engaged in this campaign than are their elders. A Pew Research Center study released earlier this month asked voters whether they considered this year's campaign "interesting" or "dull." Among those 18 to 29, 67 percent called the campaign interesting, as did 66 percent of those 30 to 49. By contrast, 58 percent of those 50 to 64 and 52 percent of those over 65 saw the campaign as interesting.
The increase in political interest among the young is staggering. Between 2000 and this year, the percentage of those under 30 describing the campaign as interesting was up 36 points; the increase among those over 65 was a more modest 18 points.
Could the young make a difference in Barack Obama's favor? Again, the answer is clearly yes. Age is one of the most powerful lines of division in this election. In Pew's survey, the under-30s gave Obama his largest lead, 56 percent to 36 percent. He also led among voters aged 30 to 49, but ran behind among voters 65 and over.
This is not a one-time trend. The under-30s were by far John Kerry's best age group in 2004 -- he carried them over George Bush 54 percent to 45 percent--and they voted better than 3-2 for Democratic House candidates in 2006.
A study released last week by the Rockefeller Foundation and Time magazine helps explain why the under-30s are so engaged, and why their political views have more in common with those of the New Deal generation than of the Reagan generation.
According to the survey, nearly half of the under-30s said that America was a better place to live in the 1990s, and they think the country will continue to decline. This is a more pessimistic view than that of the older generational groups. They are also the generation most worried about their own or their family's economic security, and half of them went without health insurance at some point in the last year, more than double the percentage of any other group.
In light of this, it's not surprising that the Rockefeller report found that 86 percent of the under-30s--significantly more than any other generational group--said that "more government programs should help those struggling under current economic conditions."
Young Americans show all signs of being interested enough and upset enough to flock to the polls this year. If they do, they could be the most politically consequential generation since the cohort of the Great Depression and World War II. Think of these newcomers as the Engaged Generation.
E.J. Dionne, Jr. is the author of the recently published Souled Out: Reclaiming Faith and Politics After the Religious Right. He is a Washington Post columnist, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a professor at Georgetown University.
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By E.J. Dionne, Jr.
14 comments
I don't think the young people are looking for MORE government control to get us into better economic standing but more of the thought about LESS war which is one thing Barrack has promoted. Young people aren't looking at the major candidate either. Most look at the independents for better guidance. Ron Paul has been the one to open the eyes of the young people and to look at government in a new light.
- Chris
July 24, 2008 at 1:13pm
No, we can't put the question to rest yet, nor even after this election. Maybe participation rates skyrocket this cycle. What about the next? Give me a trend that lasts over several cycles and I'll start to consider it.
- reb
July 25, 2008 at 1:23am
Here we go with the disgruntled Ron Paul revolution people. Any young person that has to deal with the rising costs of college these days would more than welcome government involvement in aiding those trying to get a higher education, helping with loans and grants etc.
- Victor
July 25, 2008 at 4:22am
Not surprisingly, it seems that "young people" will be engaged enough to vote so long as there are enough lollipops and unicorns involved. So we can thank Obama for that.
- Selish70
July 25, 2008 at 7:59am
Chris, it just isn't true that "Most [young'uns] look at the independents for better guidance." Many young people back Ron Paul, but the majority didn't.
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July 25, 2008 at 9:06am
The republican party has made politics for the young relevant again by nearly destroying America with the bad ideas and nihilistic approach to government. It's that simple.
- Northern Observer
July 25, 2008 at 11:27am
I think it is worthwhile to look at myobama to see how young people are participating in the political process. The discussions there are more about how to look cool like obama's. You see there a discussion about the brand og obamas clothes, goggles. If rock star adoration is same as participation in politics; please; give me a break.
- sri
July 25, 2008 at 12:30pm
Sri, if you want to see serious and smart young people, I just found votegopher.com. It's by Harvard students apparently, and provides very easy-to-understand summaries of all the issues. A little cutesy, but I guess the lollipop/unicorn-lovers need cute graphics to sweeten up the bitter medicine of actual information. Anyway, check it out.
- Sam
July 25, 2008 at 12:48pm
As a member of the demographic under discussion, I feel compelled to weigh in. Of course, I can't speak for any "young'uns" other than myself (and maybe my friends), but I thought I'd better stand up and state clearly that lollipops, unicorns, and rock star adoration have nothing to do with my enthusiasm for politics this time around. And neither does Ron Paul...as far as I can tell the only good thing he ever did was to embarrass the GOP by pretending to be a Republican. Back in 2000, I really thought that it wouldn't matter which party controlled Washington, but 8 years of disaster have disabused me of that notion. Starting in 2004, I've been paying more attention, educating myself, and refusing to let cynicism get the better of me. Certainly, Obama's eloquence doesn't hurt my enthusiasm, but whatever happens to him, my one vote and I are in the process to stay.
- Mike
July 25, 2008 at 1:59pm
Damn, nearly destroyed, eh NO? What does complete destruction look like, 6% unemployment? Median family income at 38K instead of 42K? Maybe our basletball loses in Beijing? Yes, no doubt we are near total collapse and annihilation. Northern, old boy, NOTHING is that simple.
- butchie b
July 25, 2008 at 3:42pm
Among my young friends of all class, social and political stripes, those who are not giving some thought to politics are looked down upon.
- Mizzou
July 25, 2008 at 8:00pm
MORE government programs!? MORE government involvement? Hell, I would give my right arm for LESS involvement. Sure the economy is bad and congress (yes, the democratically controlled one ... they are as much responsible as the president, president before him and) has managed to make things worse, but more programs to help us out?! I don't understand the blind sense of entitlement all of these spoiled young kids have. Sure, I have a pile of student loans and a subpar income to make my post college life difficult but it sure isn't the government's job to pad my home if I can't do it myself. Spoiled brats. Learn to work for a living. We still have it better than so many other people. Yes, it can get better and it should, but it's as up to us as it is the people on Capitol Hill. I'm so sick of hearing my friends at the bar complain and blame everything on circumstances they believe out of their control. If people want change they need to start with themselves. That includes not being brainwashed by the Obama campaign because he puts out good rhetoric with no real point. I'm not excited about either candidate but the first step the young people need to take is to get real with Obama and look at him the through the magnifying glass that most other politicians are observed through, and realize he's no angel either. Not even close. If this country goes to hell it's because my (the young generation) is too lazy to actually educate themselves and they think a blind vote at the ballot is being responsible. It's the infringement of our rights that is destroying us ... the infringement that has gained momentum under the current administration and, by the way Obama acts (not speaks) will continue under his administration.
- Peter
July 26, 2008 at 12:12pm
The right to vote should be withheld from stupid college-aged punk kids who still live with their parents and never held down a job or paid taxes once in their life. It's pretty freaking easy to scream that we need more funds in welfare, health care, etc. without realizing that every dollar of that comes from someone else's pocket. But of course that's the whole idea of the Democratic party. "Let someone else pay for it. "
- jwl2672
July 31, 2008 at 3:36pm
THE MAJORITY COULD NEVER SEE RON PAUL UNDER THE JEWISH NEW YORK MEDIA CLOAK. HOW CAN THEY UNDERSTAND AND "BACK" A CANDIDATE THAT CAN'T GET IN THE JEWISH MEDIA. BLAME THE RUTHLESS BIASED MEDIA (TV, RADIO, ENTERTAINMENT, MAGS, PAPERS). I WILL BE "WRITING-IN" PRESIDENT RON PAUL IN NOVEMBER. THE OTHERS ARE TOTAL PUPPET CRAP.
- ART
September 12, 2008 at 1:18am