But Cuba
has also grown increasingly close with China,
which has upped its aid to Havana
and has hosted Raul Castro numerous times. Witnessing China’s staggering growth, Raul, though clearly
no democrat, allegedly has expressed a desire to promote some Chinese-style
economic reforms in Cuba.
If the U.S. refuses any relations
with Cuba under a Raul
leadership, Beijing will only tighten its links
to the island and will probably tap the oil fields off Cuba’s
coast--potentially fertile ground for American energy firms.
Continuing the isolation of Cuba
doesn’t even make political sense in America. With new generations of
Cuban-Americans growing up removed from the battles of the late 1950s and early
1960s, the Miami community, once thought of as a
monolithic bloc, has become more open to the idea of reconciliation with Cuba. As revealed
by one poll by the William C. Velazquez Institute, a Latino polling group, most
Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County think the residents of Cuba “should decide when and how the political
system in Cuba
should be changed.” Many Cuban-Americans simply aren’t as interested in Cuba as they used to be; the poll found that a
majority of Cuban-Americans think “improving the quality of life in South Florida is more important than waiting to change the
Cuban government.” Another study, by the polling firm Bendixen and Associates, showed
that over 70 percent of Cuban-Americans want Washington
to negotiate with the post-Fidel government in Cuba if it is willing to cooperate.
Sensing this opinion shift, many prominent Cuban-Americans
have been calling for “conditional engagement” with the island that would
include more direct American travel to Cuba, and more American investment--all
on the condition that the Cuban government increase its respect for workers’
rights, creates an independent judiciary, and allows its people greater freedom
to start businesses. Even some Republican congresspeople, once loath to contemplate rapprochement with Cuba, have changed their tune: At a recent
Senate Finance Committee hearing, Senator Chuck Grassley suggested
the U.S.
reconsider its bilateral relations with the island.