Aaron L. Friedberg

The best way to understand North Korea is to think of it not as a traditional nation-state, but as a nuclear-armed organized crime family, albeit one that will soon find itself in need of a new boss. Like any successful gang, the Kim Jong-Il crew is involved in several different lines of business: READ MORE >>

Anyone who doubts the role of “Black Swans” in shaping the course of human events should pause to reflect on the decade just past. 9/11 and the recent global financial meltdown are precisely the sorts of big, disruptive developments that occasionally send history careening onto unforeseen paths, leaving the reputations of prognosticators and the best-laid plans of policymakers in their wake. READ MORE >>

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