Noam writes: For what it's worth, Mike and I ran into a Clinton insider last night who offered an additional twist on this argument: Not only does Clinton do better among registered Democrats than she does among independents and Republicans. But he thought registered Democrats would be especially inclined to give her a second look after Iowa and New Hampshire because they'd resent having their nominee chosen by a bunch of interlopers.
Reason's Kerry Howley had an op-ed in the Times yesterday which seemed pretty unconvincing. Here's Howley: If you’ve ever wondered why India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan and the Philippines seem readier to elect women than does the United States, here’s your answer: Societies that value a candidate’s family affiliation, and therefore have a history of nepotistic succession, are often open to female leadership so long as it bears the right brand. Benazir Bhutto, Indira Gandhi and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, among many others, slashed through gender barriers on the strength of their family names.
Obama looks and sounds the best he has since the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner. The crowd has him pumped up and he sounds extremely passionate. Update: TNR friend Charles Barkley writes to say that Obama winning Iowa is a "great start" and he hopes it leads to Obama "winning it all." And who wants to argue with Sir Charles? --Isaac Chotiner
For those who worried that Mitt Romney was out of bad sports metaphors, have no fear: "Just because you won the Silver medal in one event doesn't mean you can't come back and win the gold." Oh, right--he saved the Olympics! --Isaac Chotiner
Sounding as if he works for both Barack Obama and John Edwards, Edwards aide Joe Trippi just spun the results as a big win for change and a big win for those people who aren't named Clinton! No mention of the actual numbers, of course, but Trippi's message was simply that as long as Hillary isn't ahead, it's a win for Edwards. --Isaac Chotiner
Chris Matthews just called Iowa for Barack Obama. --Isaac Chotiner
Mitt Romney just gave a painful interview to Chris Wallace on Fox News, where he was grilled on his disappointing (and apparently distant) second place finish. He tried to muster enthusiasm about the future ("this is just the first inning of a fifty inning game), but he looked tired and down. As for the gang at Fox, they seem surprisingly upbeat considering Huck is most certainly not their man. --Isaac Chotiner
With slightly more than 50% reporting, Obama leads Clinton and Edwards by about 2.5%. My super-secret source says Obama's big precincts have not reported yet. --Isaac Chotiner
...according to Fox News. --Isaac Chotiner
Final Fox entrance poll: 34-27-21----Obama-Clinton-Edwards. --Isaac Chotiner