John B. Judis
What We Can Learn From The Democratic Exit Polls
January 08, 2008
I've looked at the current Democratic exit polls, which, incidentally, are adjusted later to fit the final results, so what I have to say here must taken as subject to revision.
The Swing Appeal Of Obama And Hillary, Continued
January 02, 2008
My friend Jon Cohn has asked me to respond to his posting about the Des Moines Register poll, and I will try to oblige. What Jon discovers in Clinton and Obama's totals have shown up in other polls as well: Obama does well among independents and less well among voters without a college degree; Clinton does poorly among independents, but better among voters without a college degree. What this shows is that both candidates have glaring weaknesses that an effective Republican campaign could exploit in the fall. Obama is going to have a lot of trouble with the white working class.
Hillary Clinton's Firewall
December 18, 2007
Hillary Clinton was once thought to have had the Democratic nomination sewn up, but if current polls are any indication, she could conceivably lose not only the Iowa caucus, but also the primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Since these states became the major test of presidential aspirations, no Democrat or Republican has ever gotten the nomination after losing all three. But even if she fails to win any of those three critical early states, Hillary Clinton still has a chance. That’s because of her strength among Hispanic voters.
December 05, 2007
INDEPENDENCE, MISSOURI “As much as we would all like to believe the General Assembly is a ‘Mr. Smith’ kind of entity, the reality is that these institutions are far more like a tug of war,” says State Senator Chris Koster, as we sit over coffee at the Courtyard Exchange. “If you are going to go down there, you have to get on one side of the rope or the other, and I realized I was on the wrong side of the rope.” Koster was elected a state senator in 2004 as part of a swing to the Republican Party in Missouri.
November 27, 2007
Kentucky swings the other way.
November 15, 2007
After the first Democratic debate, at the end of April, when Hillary Clinton made her main rivals seems small and insignificant, I expected that Barack Obama would fade from contention even before the Iowa Caucus. And in the months that followed, Obama seemed to be doing just that. But <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 />Clinton’s recent missteps, amplified by John Edwards’ strident attacks upon her, provided Obama with an opening--and in a stirring speech before the Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Des Moines November 10, Obama took it.
November 12, 2007
Lexington, Kentucky Kentucky, Fred Barnes declared on Fox News in November 2003, "is a realignment state." He and other jubilant Republicans certainly had reason to think so. What had once been a Democratic stronghold--Bill Clinton carried the state in 1992 and 1996, and Democrats controlled the governor's mansion for more than a generation--seemed to be slipping into Republican hands. Both of Kentucky's senators were Republicans, as were five of its six House members. George W. Bush had won the state by a solid margin in 2000.
November 05, 2007
At a town hall meeting in Exeter, New Hampshire, last month, local resident Bob Roughsedge introduced Rudy Giuliani as "the next mayor of the United States." No one tittered or spoke up. Afterward, Roughsedge wasn't even aware of the slip, and Giuliani, who is usually quick to correct, did not seem aware of it either. Maybe that's because Giuliani is actually running to be mayor of the United States.Giuliani is selling himself to voters on the basis of his service as New York's mayor.
November 05, 2007
At a town hall meeting in Exeter, New Hampshire, last month, local resident Bob Roughsedge introduced Rudy Giuliani as "the next mayor of the United States." No one tittered or spoke up. Afterward, Roughsedge wasn't even aware of the slip, and Giuliani, who is usually quick to correct, did not seem aware of it either. Maybe that's because Giuliani is actually running to be mayor of the United States.Giuliani is selling himself to voters on the basis of his service as New York's mayor. He is arguing that he has the kind of administrative experience that would prepare him to be president.
Doing the Math
October 31, 2007
Polls can mislead, but at the risk of making a fool of myself, I will try to draw some conclusions from the current ones: Hillary Clinton is going to get the Democratic nomination unless she makes some very big mistakes between now and the first caucuses and primaries; and the Republican race looks increasingly like a two-man contest between Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, with Fred Thompson and John McCain as also-runs and Mike Huckabee as a spoiler.