Jonathan Cohn
Senior Editor

Romney Goes Negative ... But On Whom?
January 04, 2008

Just in from the Mitt Romney campaign, here's the transcript of a new radio ad they are airing in New Hampshire: ANNOUNCER:  "Remember?  Last time John McCain attacked President Bush's integrity." JOHN MCCAIN:  "His ad twists the truth like Clinton.  We're all pretty tired of that." ANNOUNCER:  "Comparing Bush to Clinton?  He was wrong then, and he’s wrong about Mitt Romney now. "The truth?  'McCain is not as conservative as Romney.' "'He voted against the Bush tax cuts.' "On immigration, McCain supported this year's amnesty bill. "Higher taxes, amnesty for illegals. "That's straight talk for

Why This Is No Ordinary Win
January 04, 2008

I'll leave the strategic implications of tonight's outcome to the professional speculators on television. But, as a supporter of progressive causes, I'm struck by how different this feels from the 2004 Iowa race -- when the late implosion of the front-runner (Howard Dean) handed the contest to a candidate (John Kerry) whom almost everybody understood to be a severely limited politician and about whom almost nobody was actually enthusiastic. You can't say that about what just transpired.

I Think They Call This Feeling "clinton Fatigue"
January 03, 2008

Random note: After Clinton finished her concession speech and the crowd behind her began to scatter, I noticed Terry McAuliffe, the former DNC chairman famous for his fundraising capers, walking across the stage.

Nbc Calls It For Obama
January 03, 2008

 MSNBC just called the Dem race for Obama.  Chris Matthews is ebullient, calls it a "projectile victory" (for which Olbermann gives him the business).    --Jonathan Cohn

Nbc Calls Gop Race For Huckabee, Too
January 03, 2008

Olbermann announced it on MSNBC, right at the top of the hour.  I assume other networks will follow shortly, if they haven't already.  --Jonathan Cohn

Clinton V. Obama On Swing Voters, Epilogue
January 03, 2008

OK, this is my last word on the great swing voter debate, which I inadvertently started yesterday.  Actually, it's not so much my word as John Judis' word, as published in the online pages of the Guardian.  In a new article, he and frequent collaborator Ruy Teixeira break down the independent vote. It's worth reading in full, but this paragraph--about the preferences of independent voters in New Hampshire -- really caught my attention: Even when Hillary Clinton was well ahead in the polls, these voters preferred Barack Obama.

Closing Messages--and Closing Doubts
January 03, 2008

Overnight all three of the leading Democratic presidential contenders began airing “closing messages” to the caucus-goers of Iowa. All three spots are quite good--a reminder, I think, of just how strong this field of candidates is. But I was struck by how perfectly the advertisements captured the essence of each campaign, warts and all. . Start with Clinton's spot. It's the least lyrical of the three. You'll hear no memorable phrases, detect no compelling narrative.

Why Hillary Could Win Swing Voters
January 02, 2008

My colleague Jonathan Chait suggests, gently, that I am off my rocker for even suggesting that Hillary Clinton might have more appeal to swing voters than Barack Obama.  While I’m hesitant to engage Jon over this – my primary purpose in writing that item was to show why Obama’s support among independents was impressive, regardless of what actually happens on caucus night – I just can’t resist the opportunity to rekindle our little quadrennial tradition.  (Loyal readers may remember that Jon and I, who agree on virtually everything in politics, went a few rounds over Howard Dean in 2004.)   

What That Register Poll Really Says (or Doesn't Say)
January 02, 2008

For those who spent the past 36 hours celebrating (and recovering) rather than obsessing over presidential politics, the big news over New Year's was the final Des Moines Register poll.  Released just hours before the end of 2007, it showed Barack Obama increasing his lead in Iowa over fellow Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. But even before theRegister's morning edition began hitting doorsteps, both the Clinton and Edwards campaigns had put out their counter-spin.

Good Mitt, Bad Mitt
December 27, 2007

Manchester, New Hampshire--The early conventional wisdom is that Thursday’s tragedy in Pakistan will help the Republican candidate with the most foreign policy experience (John McCain) and the one most associated with 9/11 (Rudy Giuliani). For all I know about the dynamics of Republican primary politics, that’s correct.