The New Republic

Compared to some of the large Obama leads from the past week, yesterday’s polls weren’t terrible for Romney These polls are still consistent with a clear Obama lead, but here’s a way to look at it: how many of these polls are better for Obama than the average poll over the last week? Even the PPP/NRDC polls were only in-line with the average, with the possible exception of Virginia.  READ MORE >>

Without CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, today was all but assured to be a better polling day for Romney. That said, the polls still suggest that Obama leads nationally, as well as in states worth 348 electoral votes. READ MORE >>

Three NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac polls grabbed the headlines by showing Obama with double-digit leads in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Importantly, Obama hit 53 percent in all three states, giving him more than enough of the vote to withstand substantial losses among undecided voters. READ MORE >>

Some allege that the polls oversample Democrats, since they show Democrats outnumbering Republicans by the same margin that they did in 2008, or even more. It does seem hard to imagine that Democrats are regenerating the same support that they received in the midst of a perfect storm, but a closer look reveals that the polls don't show as many Democrats as 2008.  READ MORE >>

Campaign 2012 has reached the stage where partisans have moved from attacking their opponents to attacking the polls. And while there's been criticism from all sides, the current state of the polls explains why the most vociferous denunciations are coming from the right. One dismayed conservative has even set up a website, unskewedpolls.com, where poll results are re-calibrated in ways that supposedly strips them of their bias. READ MORE >>

Over the summer, polls showed Obama with a broad but narrow lead across the battleground states, roughly commensurate with his advantage nationally. Romney looked slightly weak in Ohio, but he only trailed by two or three points in public surveys—hardly an insurmountable margin. And Romney’s Ohio problem was somewhat mitigated by the selection of Paul Ryan, which appeared to vault Wisconsin into the toss-up column and create a somewhat credible path to victory without the Buckeye State. READ MORE >>

With Romney trailing by a clear margin, a frontal assault on the accuracy of polling has begun. Some of the skepticism is understandable, but other elements are brazenly self-serving. I'll be assessing the critiques of the polls over the next few days, but any debate about the accuracy of the polls must start by remembering a central point: The polls are usually pretty good. READ MORE >>

Every day that goes by without a shift in Romney's direction or an event that could plausibly induce such a shift is a lost day for the Romney campaign. This isn’t about who wins the news cycle; whether Obama refers to Middle Eastern violence as a bump in the road doesn’t matter. It’s about events that could reshape one of the most stable races in modern electoral history. READ MORE >>

It's been apparent for a couple of months now that Mitt Romney has a real problem in Ohio, which is great news for Democrats—Mitt can't realistically afford a loss in the Buckeye State. But if you’ve been looking at the post-DNC polls in Ohio, you might think that Romney’s Ohio problem is a little overstated. Yes, he’s losing by about four points in the state, but he’s also losing by four points nationally. READ MORE >>

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