Don’t Trust That Poll! Obama is Doing Fine in New Mexico
This afternoon, PPP released a New Mexico survey with surprising results, showing Obama’s lead in the state collapsing, as the president fell from a 14 point advantage to just a 5 point edge. So is this a sign that New Mexico is returning to its competitive roots? If I were Romney, I wouldn't get too excited yet. A closer look at the numbers reveals that Obama is probably still holding up well in the Land of Enchantment. READ MORE >>
With Obama struggling among independent voters and Democrats likely to constitute a slightly larger share of the electorate than Republicans, Romney will probably carry independents in a close national election. That doesn't mean the effects will be the same across the electoral map, though: Since independents aren't distributed evenly across the country, Obama's dependence on independent voters varies considerably by state. READ MORE >>
In the wake of last week’s ABC News/Washington Post poll, ABC News reported that Obama has a problem with independent voters. On the one hand, this isn’t surprising. Obama has consolidated the Democratic vote, and yet he remains beneath 50 percent among registered voters; obviously independents aren’t swooning to support the President’s reelection. But does that mean Obama has a problem among independents? READ MORE >>
Obama Is Well Positioned In Virginia
As I explained in this week's issue of the print magazine, the resilience of Obama's "new coalition" of upscale whites and minorities has allowed Obama to remain competitive in North Carolina, a state that voted for him by just 14,000 votes in 2008. It also augurs poorly for Romney in Virginia, an extremely similar state where the same forces keeping North Carolina close might just keep Virginia in the Democratic column. READ MORE >>
Will Voter ID Laws Cost Obama Reelection?
The possibility that new voter-ID laws could disenfranchise thousands of Democratic- voters in pivotal swing states has received considerable attention recently. After all, 9.2 percent of registered voters in Pennsylvania lack photo identification, including 18 percent of registered voters in heavily Democratic Philadelphia. But these flashy numbers might be misleading. If voter-ID laws have consequences for voter turnout, they’re difficult to detect. READ MORE >>
Achilles Tar Heel
The One Scenario Where Condi Would Make Sense for Veep
Last night, the Drudge Report tried to distract us from Bain with the hot new rumor that former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice might be at the top of Romney’s list of possible veep candidates. While the rumor is intriguing, it’s almost assuredly false. Rice has never run for public office and has described herself as “pro-choice,” which is essentially disqualifying; after all, social conservatives are already justifiably skeptical of Romney's commitment to their causes. READ MORE >>
Bain Attacks Might Work, Even If It Can't Be Proven
After writing that there's not much evidence that the Bain ads are reshaping the race, some were keen to remind me of the NBC/WSJ poll, which set the Bain narrative by releasing a battleground subsample showing Obama with a larger advantage in the battlegrounds than the rest of the country. READ MORE >>
Super PAC Expands Midwestern Playing Field
If there’s anywhere the GOP’s fundraising advantage could pay dividends, it’s in the demographically vulnerable and undefended flank of Obama’s path to 270: the Upper Midwest. The Obama campaign isn’t airing ads in many traditionally competitive but Democratic-tilting states, like Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan, but the Romney campaign and their allies are getting more adventurous, and now appear poised to air advertisements in all three states. READ MORE >>
