The Obama Coalition is Still Alive—But For How Long?
October 15, 2012
Only one thing can keep Obama's coalition together long-term: economic growth.
Eyes on the Prize
August 29, 2012
Sean Trende, a senior elections analyst, believes that the very notion of long-lasting political realignments is a myth.
Obama’s White Working Class Problem, and Ours
August 21, 2012
Obama is weaker among the white working class today than he was back in 2008. But why isn't he succumbing to his clear Achilles’ heel?
Why Obama Shouldn't Be Taking the Black Vote for Granted
July 12, 2012
There’s no question that Hispanics are among the most coveted voting blocs for November’s election. Numerically, they’re the fastest growing minority group in the U.S. population. Major media regularly monitor their presidential preferences.
New Data on Obama's Massive Demographic Advantage
July 09, 2012
It’s widely acknowledged by political observers that the country’s demographic change in the last four years—particularly the increase in minority voters and decline of white non-college voters—favors President Obama’s re-election bid. What’s less obvious is exactly how much these changes favor Obama—especially in the swing states that loom so large in this coming election. These data can be hard to come by.
Biology for Liberals
June 19, 2012
Samuel Bowles and Herbert Gintis's A Cooperative Species is an excellent primer on how biologists have sought to explain seemingly altruistic behavior
Yes, Obama Can Win Arizona This Year
May 15, 2012
Many commentators responded with incredulity when the Obama campaign announced its intention to win Arizona this year, and with good reason. After all, this was a state that Obama lost by 8.5 points in 2008. In an election projected to be as close as this year’s, it seems highly unlikely that Obama can flip a solid loss into a victory. Indeed, you’d be forgiven for assuming that the most likely outcome would be the President losing by an even greater margin. But Obama campaign’s commitment to Arizona is more than a bluff.
Will Obama’s Wednesday embrace of same-sex marriage equality hurt him in November? The short answer is: possible, but not likely. First, as a general proposition, it seems unlikely that there are large numbers of socially conservative voters who lean Obama today but will be transformed into opponents simply by his declared support for marriage equality. Obama’s backing for equality for gays has, after all, been apparent throughout his administration, most famously in ending the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy in the military.
Why There Are Many More Swing Voters Than You Think
April 12, 2012
With the GOP primary now all but officially over—congratulations, Mr. Romney—we can safely declare it swing voter season. As the general election campaign heats up, ever more attention is going to shift to that special class of voters who we presume will be responsible for picking our next President. But there’s good reason to believe that the vast majority of Americans, including professional journalists and campaign operatives, wouldn’t recognize a typical swing voter if they met one. Indeed, the application of the term “swing voter” deserves a lot more scrutiny than it generally earns.