New Data on Obama's Massive Demographic Advantage
It’s widely acknowledged by political observers that the country’s demographic change in the last four years—particularly the increase in minority voters and decline of white non-college voters—favors President Obama’s re-election bid. What’s less obvious is exactly how much these changes favor Obama—especially in the swing states that loom so large in this coming election. READ MORE >>
Biology for Liberals
Yes, Obama Can Win Arizona This Year
Many commentators responded with incredulity when the Obama campaign announced its intention to win Arizona this year, and with good reason. After all, this was a state that Obama lost by 8.5 points in 2008. In an election projected to be as close as this year’s, it seems highly unlikely that Obama can flip a solid loss into a victory. Indeed, you’d be forgiven for assuming that the most likely outcome would be the President losing by an even greater margin. READ MORE >>
Will Obama’s Wednesday embrace of same-sex marriage equality hurt him in November? The short answer is: possible, but not likely. READ MORE >>
Why There Are Many More Swing Voters Than You Think
With the GOP primary now all but officially over—congratulations, Mr. Romney—we can safely declare it swing voter season. As the general election campaign heats up, ever more attention is going to shift to that special class of voters who we presume will be responsible for picking our next President. But there’s good reason to believe that the vast majority of Americans, including professional journalists and campaign operatives, wouldn’t recognize a typical swing voter if they met one. READ MORE >>
The Great Illusion
I SUPPOSE WE should be grateful to Linda Killian. Her new book collects in one place every clichéd and suspect empirical generalization about political independents. So in that sense—and only in that sense—it is a useful volume. READ MORE >>
Why Obama’s Re-Election is Going to Look a Lot Like 2008
Judging from recent headlines, things are looking up for President Obama. The Republican presidential nominees have been serially embarrassing themselves; the White House communications department has successfully focused its messaging on jobs and economic fairness; and consumers are feeling ever more confident about the economy. READ MORE >>
