ELECTIONATE JULY 27, 2012
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If you live inside the Beltway, you probably think that Romney had a terrible month. Since Obama cornered him on the DREAM Act, Romney has been hit on outsourcing, his time at Bain Capital, and his tax returns. But here we are a month later, and Romney’s still standing roughly where he was before. That has some Obama-fans worried about Romney’s resilience and the effectiveness of Obama’s strategy: Obama must really be in trouble, the argument goes, if Romney didn’t lose any support after a terrible month. But while that instinct is understandable, Romney’s resilience isn’t a sign of any great strength—it just demonstrates that he has a relatively high floor.
If Romney was above 50 percent and withstood a month of bad press, that would be a real sign of resilience. But Romney’s not at 50 percent; he’s at 45 percent. And that essentially means that Romney holds the reliably Republican vote, and not very much more. The polls tell us that nearly all of these voters disapprove of Obama’s performance and that most are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. History suggests that they have voted for Republicans in recent elections—for instance, in 2008, McCain won 45.9 percent of the vote in a hostile political climate. So 45 percent is a logical floor for Romney, given the intensity of Republican opposition to Obama. For that same reason, analysts shouldn’t be too impressed with Romney’s gains until he consistently scores above 45 or 46 percent, which would be a sign of persuading undecided voters rather than consolidating natural supporters.
Should Obama supporters be concerned that Romney’s horse-race numbers aren’t diving? Probably not. With a unified GOP-base committed to replacing President Obama, it will take something pretty extraordinary to get Romney’s numbers to fall beneath 45 percent. But the factors allowing Romney to hold firm at 45 do not necessarily ensure an easy route to 50. After all, despite low approval ratings and tepid economic growth, Romney hasn’t made very much progress toward winning over the undecided swing voters harboring concerns about Obama’s performance.
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7 comments
This post sounds right and makes sense. I'll wait for the debate.
- Nusholtz
July 27, 2012 at 3:36pm
Thanks. The hysteria about the narrowing of the spread between Obama and Romney in polling data is more worrying than the polling data itself. In particular is the concern expressed by many that Obama's gaffe could be fatal because it reminds voters that Obama is an alien. Do Romney supporters need to be reminded? The tick tock of presidential campaigns reminds me of OCD parents raising a child, where every success and failing of the little brat is considered life altering. Yesterday, AS, who has been a consistent and enthusiastic supporter of Obama, wrote that Obama is a "dumb ass" for his gaffe, and concluded that the election is most likely lost as a result. Here's the really odd thing about today's presidential politics: the candidate who is receiving the most media attention drops in the polls. Hence, the strategy of each campaign is to keep the media's attention on the other candidate. That says something unflattering about either the public or the media, or both.
- rayward
July 28, 2012 at 8:15am
I'm sure Galston blames the Bain ads for Romney's high floor.
- misterpibb
July 28, 2012 at 11:14am
Repetition, I admit. Being POTUS is a really tough job. My memory goes back to Truman. I have not liked any of our Presidents, but I give each and every one a good grade on the basis of no nuclear war, no 2nd Great Depression (though I am giving them the benefit of the doubt that we are not in it right now), nor no other equivalent disaster. Who was it said that democracy is a terrible system of government, except in comparison to all the others? Hey, not only that, the slaves are free, the aborigines were not totally wiped out, and we are not saluting Hitler or Stalin, and an asteroid missed earth yesterday. We might even survive BO round 2 or MR the Mormon mocking bird Round 1, though if he is elected I expect him to tithe 95% of his wealth to lowering the National Debt. God has enough gelt -- after all he probably remembers where he buried it all after he created it.
- skahn
July 29, 2012 at 12:47am
rayward- What gaffe are you talking about? Dhurtado
- NR143296
July 29, 2012 at 10:29am
The gaffe where he really said "You didn't build that", instead of saying, as he should have, and as the rest of the speech indicates he meant -- "You didn't build that by yourself".
- AllanL5
July 30, 2012 at 10:29am
Another way to interpret these numbers is to say that Romney has solidified the GOP base and is now poised to contest Obama for the votes of independents and dissaffected Democrats. If Romney is polling at 45%, Obama is only polling at 46% or 47%, which is much less than the 53% he got in 2008. For all of his attacks on Romney and Bain, Obama seems stuck 6-7% below where he was four years ago. Despite Obama's multi-million dollar propaganda campaign, the undecided voters remain undecided. The biggest problem with Romney's campaign, so far, seems to be that Romney has given people reasons not to vote for Obama, but he hasn't yet given them reasons to vote for him.
- Spengler47
July 30, 2012 at 11:14am