ELECTIONATE AUGUST 3, 2012
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With Obama standing in the upper-forties and leading by a few points, Romney’s chances hinge on the verdict of undecided voters. If they break his way, Romney could catch up to Obama in the polls—and there’s a reasonable line of thought contending that’s what we should expect. After all, Obama’s approval rating is beneath 50 percent, so most of these voters harbor misgivings about the president’s performance. And every Republican remembers the lesson of 1980, when undecided voters flocked to Reagan over the final few days, turning a dead-heat into a decisive 489 electoral-vote landslide.
But recent polling from Pew Research and NBC/WSJ suggests that Romney has a real problem with the undecided voters he’s counting on to put him over the top. Approximately half of undecided voters have an unfavorable impression of Romney, while his favorability ratings are mired in the teens. That’s an average net-favorable rating of -33, which is all the more remarkable considering that about one-third of voters didn’t offer an opinion of Romney at all. Put differently, Romney is disliked by an astonishing 75 percent of undecided voters who have formulated an opinion of the Republican nominee.
Obama’s numbers aren’t much better at a net-negative 15, but they are better, with slightly less than one-third of undecided voters holding a positive opinion. And far more importantly, Obama leads among voters who have already decided, so his burden among undecided voters is considerably less than Romney's. Take today’s RCP average: Obama’s up by 2.7 points, 47.3 to 44.6. Assuming that one percent of voters ultimately select third party candidates, Romney would need to win 69 percent of undecided voters to produce a tied popular vote, while Obama would need just 31 percent.
And while the 1980 scenario can't be discounted, it's also not a scenario that anyone should count on. Things aren't going well right now, but today's economic and geopolitical climate isn't nearly as bad as 1980, as this Nate Silver piece helpfully demonstrates. Today's political and economic climate is more reminiscent of 1992 or 2004—elections where undecided voters did not overwhelmingly break toward either side. Between some portion of undecided voters staying home, an inevitable subset voting for Obama, and Romney’s high unfavorable ratings, a flood of undecided voters flocking to Romney seems unlikely—at least if the election were held today.
8 comments
"Romney is disliked by an astonishing 75 percent of undecided voters who have formulated an opinion of the Republican nominee." Gee, I wonder where they got the idea that he isn't likeable? Couldn't be the Bain Capital ads or the tax returns flap, could it?
- wildboy
August 3, 2012 at 2:02pm
Actually, wildboy, I think Romney's likeability problems mostly spring not from substantive issues like Bain, tax returns, etc., but rather from the way he simply comes across to people. The perception is that he's effete, elitist, Richie Rich. And he twists himself in knots, risks putting his foot in his mouth, every time he tries to dispel it. Obama's adds capitalizing on the substantive issues may have taken a toll. But Romney himself has provided fertile ground for such issues to dovetail with his persona.
- Thunderroad
August 3, 2012 at 2:39pm
I voted for Reagan because I liked him and thought Carter was weak because of the hostage crisis. I voted for him again in 84 because I thought Mondale was a liberal dinosaur and because I still liked Reagan. I was also ambivalent in 2000 because I thought Gore was a bore but really preferred McCain (year 2000 version). And I still liked McCain in 2008 though I greatly preferred Obama. Romney though is a sociopath. He is the most unctuous, entitled ahole to ever run for President. Considering how inept his campaign has been so far I wonder did Romney hire Mark Penn to be his secret campaign adviser?
- blackton
August 3, 2012 at 3:36pm
I agree, Thunderroad. Romney's weaselly personality is the major reason for his low favorability ratings. In fact, many Republican voters will be holding their noses when they vote for him. Weasels don't smell that good. Question: why are "undecided" voters who have an unfavorable view of one of the two candidates still undecided? Obama has positive favorability ratings. And his likability ratings are off the charts. Even Cantor and Boehner say they like him!
- magboy47.
August 3, 2012 at 8:52pm
I don't know what made Romney successful in business, although I sense he was in a particular line of work where short term profits could be had without long term ramificationsm, i.e. where the victims of his harmful conduct were not in a position to return the favor. I read where Romney tried to convince an employee to abscond with a competitors secrets by pretending to be a student doing a study (thievery) and I note Romney's willingness to distort facts to gain a political advantage (lying). Those are both short term benefits with possible long term damage if discovered.
- Nusholtz
August 3, 2012 at 10:22pm
We (humans) are in the early stages of developing AI and androids. The early models (both Obama and Romney) are crude and clumsy. Barak lacks safe passion, or maybe is too safe, and isn't quite multi-racial enough; Romney doesn't even come close to passing as human.
- skahn
August 3, 2012 at 11:25pm
Romney may be an ahole, but he is definitely not a haole. Let's be clear about that.
- Haole45
August 5, 2012 at 1:16am
It seems to me that his only chance is voter suppression, esp., in FL and PA.
- dstatton
August 5, 2012 at 1:04pm