ELECTIONATE AUGUST 10, 2012
Since Republicans tend to do better among likely voters than registered voters, many have speculated about whether Obama will still hold a lead once the polls start applying likely voter screens after the conventions. But while people are debating whether Romney will gain x or y percent, there's already a growing body of likely voter surveys which have been conducted at both the state and national level. And though Obama's advantage among likely voters is narrower than his larger edge among registered voters, there's not much question that Obama still leads. Obama leads in an overwhelming majority of likely voter surveys conducted in the battlegrounds, and he also appears to have an edge in the national popular vote.
*Romney now leads by 4 in Rasmussen's tracking poll.
We'll see what Obama's exact lead among likely voters is in September, when most polling firms start applying likely voter screens. In the meantime, Obama's lead in these polls makes it pretty clear that he has an edge among likely voters, at least right now.