ELECTIONATE OCTOBER 9, 2012
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Debates don't tend to fundamentally reshape presidential elections, but there's a chance that Romney’s historic performance might prove to be an exception. While it’s still early to judge the exact size and duration of Romney’s bounce, it has already given him his first lead in the national polls. As of last night, every post-debate national poll either shows a tied race or a slight Romney advantage, with Romney averaging a 1.4-point lead among likely voters.
But while there are not yet enough state polls to confidently judge whether Romney’s bounce cascaded across the electoral map, there are signs that Obama has fared slightly better in the battleground states than he has nationally. An equal number of battleground state polls show Obama or Romney ahead, even though Obama starts with more electoral votes and the majority of polls were conducted by firms typically producing Republican-leaning results (WAA, ARG, Rasmussen, and Gravis).
Yesterday's CNN and SurveyUSA polls in Ohio are potentially troubling signs for the Romney campaign. Heading into the debates, Obama led by a larger margin in Ohio than he did nationally, so Romney needed outsized gains in one of Ohio, Wisconsin, or both Nevada and Iowa to break Obama's easiest route to 270. If polls confirm that Obama maintains a slight lead in the key tipping point states, even at the height of Romney's post-debate bounce, it would be an indicator of Obama's resilience in perhaps 2012's most critical state. Certainly, new polls could show Romney holding an edge in Ohio, but so far there is not strong evidence that Romney has taken a lead in the Buckeye State.
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Viewed collectively, the post-debate polls point toward a close race with Romney gaining an average of 3.4 points. Whether that's enough for Romney to take a lead depends in part on whether you thought Obama was up by 3 or 5 points prior to the debate, but it seems fair to assume that the race was roughly tied over the weekend. That assessment represents something of a compromise between split state and national polls, but there are not nearly enough national surveys to confidently argue that there's a big gap between the battlegrounds and the country as a whole.
While it’s clear that Romney made big gains following the debate, it remains to be seen whether Romney’s bounce endures into this week. Almost all of the polls were conducted in the days immediately following the debate, when Romney's bounce might have been at his highest. Very few polls have been conducted exclusively over the last few days, and those that have hint that Romney's bounce might be short-lived.
Yesterday, Gallup reported that their most recent samples show Obama returning to pre-debate levels among registered voters. For that reason, Gallup is arguably the best news that Obama has received since the debate, despite predictably showing Romney gaining about 5 points after transitioning to a likely voter model. Similarly, Rasmussen’s Sunday polls of Colorado and Iowa showed Obama doing better than their pre-DNC counterparts and Rasmussen’s tracker also shows Obama returning to his post-DNC average. PPP tweeted that while Romney fared well on Thursday and Friday in their polls of Wisconsin and Virginia, Obama did much better on Saturday and Sunday. These signs are all consistent with the possibility that Romney's gains have receded, even if they are insufficient to prove that Romney's bounce is over.
The hints of movement back in Obama’s direction may just prove to be static. But those hints are enough to justify waiting a few more days for polls conducted over the weekend before concluding that Romney’s performance resulted in a lasting and fundamental shift in the race. If Romney can hold his post-debate gains, the race would be quite close—as close as any election at this stage—with the exact favorite coming down to whether Romney can take a lead in critical states like Ohio.
11 comments
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- Sophia
October 10, 2012 at 12:25am
"Romney’s historic performance might prove to be an exception." By historically doing what, lying? it wasn't Romney's performance. It was someone else not defending themself and not pointing out what was obvious to everyone watching. Romney's plans to save the economy with tax cuts and less regulation are gone. He has nothing to offer.
- Nusholtz
October 10, 2012 at 8:52am
+1 Nush. The point of debates is to lay out your policies, so the electorate can make a choice. Romney chose to distort and mischaracterize, and in a few cases even claim the opposite of what his policies actually are. Any "popularity" built on that basis is a very shaky and unreliable thing. I agree, mischaracterizing your policies in that way is such a bad choice to make, it's "Historic" in it's idiocy, hypocrisy, and even immorality. There's still a few weeks, and a few debates, remaining for the truth to be defended, and the truth of Romney's policies to be revealed once again.
- AllanL5
October 10, 2012 at 9:21am
Mr. President, in the coming debates, nail Romney's feet to the floor with his own words first. THEN you can bring out independent analysts opinions of how bad the results could be. But use Romney's own words first. "You propose a revenue neutral 20% tax cut! And then say that will reduce our 1.1 trillion dollar deficit! That simply can't work." And here's another useful phrase: "That is simply not true, you are mischaracterizing your own policies".
- AllanL5
October 10, 2012 at 9:26am
And one more: "I suppose tomorrow, your advisors will be walking back THAT claim, just as they walked back your claim on pre-existing conditions."
- AllanL5
October 10, 2012 at 9:27am
Chill, Soph, it's all good. So Obama fucked up the first debate. So what. He and we will survive. Here are some reasons not to panic: 1) Improved economic numbers. These are almost certainly not reflected fully in the national polls cited here. 2) The Veep debate. No way in hell Biden will somnambulate the way Obama did in the 1st round and no way he'll let Ryan's inevitable lies go unanswered. 3) Two more presidential debates. Obama knows he fucked up--the evidence is his post-debate Denver rally. THAT'S the guy you'll see in debates two and three. If anything these polls favoring Romney are a good thing inasmuch as they'll light a fire under Obama's ass. Time and again he's shown us that, at least in the context of an election campaign, he knows how to pull one out. 4) Obama's cash advantage. A likely reason for the differential poll results nationally and in swing states is that the swing states are already getting carpet bombed with Romney-the-lying-flip-flopper tv ads. 5) The fact that the horse-race bias of the press is seriously overselling the advantage to Romney provided by his debate performance.
- AaronW
October 10, 2012 at 10:15am
I sure hope you're right, I shall try to chill; meanwhile Ann Romney says we're akin to children in a sandbox and "poor sports;" I swear, this entitled, snotty female is getting on my very last nerve. As far as carpet bombing maybe there should be more national ads? Maybe it isn't cost effective but still...? Anyway Mr. Clinton and Mrs. Obama are on the stump. Hooray.
- Sophia
October 10, 2012 at 11:09am
OK, here are the latest polls from Gallup: Obama's approval rating remains at 53% (disapproval 42%). Registered voters: Obama leads 50/45 Likely voters: tied 48% each In both polls, Obama is up 1%, Romney down 1% These are 7 day averages, the approval rating is 3 day average. The trend is a bit encouraging. Here's my question for Mr. Cohn: would you please do a piece with some detail about the questioning process by which pollsters sort out likely voters from registered voters who they don't classify as "likely"? What questions do pollsters ask? Are "likely voters" just the ones who say they definitely plan to vote? Are the ones not classified as "likely" considered unlikely to vote, or does that include a range of voters from "no plans to vote" to "I usually vote, just not sure yet"? It seems to me that it matters what questions pollsters ask about voting likelihood, and where they draw the line between those classified as "likely" and the rest.
- bjones
October 10, 2012 at 1:11pm
After the first debate debacle, I think Obama got the message. I heard a report on NPR about how O watched his taped debate performance was flabbergasted at how bad he looked up there. Not just in a road-weary way that Presidents look like, but substantively. I guarantee that O will show up for the remainder of the debates ready to not only be "Presidential" but also to use his position as a way to substantively and passionately make the case for why Romney's policies are wrong for America and why going backwards is not how you move America into the 21st century.
- singlspeed
October 10, 2012 at 2:20pm
Over at Salon, a perceptive comment:
- icarus-r
October 10, 2012 at 3:46pm
The headline is just begging Fate to come in and reverse the two key words in it - "just" and "not".
- austinous
October 10, 2012 at 3:59pm