ELECTIONATE OCTOBER 23, 2012
-
Read Later
READ LATERAvailable only to subscribers. SUBSCRIBE TODAY
-
Listen
ARTICLE AUDIO
- Font Size
After the final presidential debate in Boca Raton, the two campaigns head into the final stretch of what could be one of the closest presidential elections in American history. The instapolls and pundits appear to have resolved that the president was a modest victor in last night's debate on foreign policy, a peripheral issue in a campaign dominated by domestic affairs. But although there’s still plenty of reason to be skeptical that the polls will lurch decidedly toward either candidate, any movement would be significant in such a close race. In the 13 national polls released yesterday, Obama led by a miniscule 47.38 to 47.31 margin—it’s hard to imagine the national polls have ever been tighter with two weeks to go.
The state polls, however, suggest that Obama retains a modest lead in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada—three states sufficient to provide Obama with a second term. Yesterday’s polls hinted at the possibility that Ohio was closer than prior polls had suggested, with Suffolk showing a tied race, POS showing Romney ahead by one point, and CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac showing Obama up by 5 points, down from an unsustainable 11 point lead in September. Nonetheless, the balance of evidence continues to show Obama with a discernible edge in the Buckeye State, and Obama will remain a slight favorite to win the election so long as that remains, at least if the election were held today.
If the polls are right and Obama holds the advantage in the critical battleground states into the final stretch, then a modest victory for the president was helpful to his chances, even if it doesn’t move the polls in his direction. Romney only has two weeks left to move the needle two points in Ohio, Nevada and Iowa, or Wisconsin and any other tilt-Obama state, and relitigating the facts and memes from last night’s debate are assured to take up at least a couple of critical days. If Romney's deficit in Ohio is larger than one or two points, then that's a real lost opportunity. Of course, if the Romney campaign believes they have already brought the race back to a dead-heat in Ohio, losing three days worth of lost comeback isn’t terrible—so long as the president doesn’t outright make gains as a result of the debate.
Support thought-provoking, quality journalism. Join The New Republic for $3.99/month.
4 comments
The bar for Mitt Romney must be really low for last night's debate to be deemed only a slight win for the President. Romney thinks Iran needs Syria to provide a link to the sea. He thinks the International Criminal Court can indict someone for words rather than deeds. These are major deficits in his knowledge base. He obviously does not know what he's doing when it come to foreign affairs. The media should be doing a better job of covering substance - maybe voters would not be so influenced by superficialities (e.g. "Romney looks presidential" whatever that means!)
- nancyellen
October 23, 2012 at 10:30am
I suspect that we've seen the high water mark from Romney, for three reasons. First, the effects of the last two debates will take a good week to play out. Those were clearly favorable to Obama and both yielded moments that could be replayed regularly throughout the remainder of the campaign--in contrast to the fading memory of the earlier debate, which favored Romney with no replayable edge. Second, I suspect that Romney or his camp will slip-up at some point. Romney has a rich history of fumbling advantages. And Obama has a thorough history of being steady-as-she goes, excepting the first debate this year. Third, I think the number the Obama campaign did on Romney's character this summer will pay dividends now, by limiting Romney's upside. In contrast, the pre-debate polls clearly showed Obama has a higher ceiling than where he's polling now. Of course, the major concern is that Obama, even in some of the polls in which he's currently leading, does not regularly reach even 48 percent. That suggests a key sliver of the population has decided against him. I don't think that low level will hold, but it's a major danger sign for Obama. That and the final set of economic numbers before the election are what I'm looking for to determine the outcome.
- polcereal
October 23, 2012 at 10:46am
Romney got creamed. The end. The press is just flat out nuts. Where have you guys been. Oh wait. Documenting the breathtaking comeback of Mitt, Prince of the Pale.
- Sophia
October 23, 2012 at 2:31pm
I don't mean Pale as in settlement, where the Jews lived.
- Sophia
October 23, 2012 at 2:32pm