SUBSCRIBE NOW WELCOME BACK. Do you want to continue reading where you left off? New Republic subscribers can pick up where they left off no matter which device they were previously using. SUBSCRIBE NOW

Go Home 26 Election Day Predictions

ELECTIONATE NOVEMBER 6, 2012

26 Election Day Predictions

BY NATE COHN

If you were hoping for state by state predictions, tough luck. 

Since I mainly trust the polls, my "predictions" aren't really mine (they're the polls) and they don't really add much value unless I'm dissenting. And if you’ve been following this blog and the polls, you can probably guess the basic outline of what I think will happen on Tuesday night. 

So here are 27 random predictions that might be more thought provoking than repeating some variant of the current polls. When it was close or defensible, I tried to go with a somewhat interesting answer...

Random Predictions

1. Obama’s Best State: Hawaii

2. Romney’s Best State: Utah

3. Obama’s Best County: DC (if it counts) or Prince Georges, MD

4. Romney’s Best County: Rich County, UT

5. State That Moves Most Toward Romney: Utah

6. State That Moves Most Toward Obama: Arizona 

7. County That Moves Most Toward Romney: Dubois County, IN

8. County That Moves Most Toward Obama: Maricopa County, AZ

9. Closest State: Florida

10. Romney's Best Battleground: North Carolina

11. Obama's Best Battleground: Nevada

12. State That Provides #270: Nevada

13. State Closest To National Average: Ohio; runner up, Iowa

14. Colorado or Virginia: Romney does better in Colorado than Virginia.

15. Minnesota or Pennsylvania: Romney does better in Pennsylvania

16. Iowa or New Hampshire: Romney does better in New Hampshire

17. Arizona or Georgia: Obama does best in Arizona.

18. Indiana or Missouri: Romney does best in Indiana.

19. Breakout Pollster: YouGov

20. Pollster With Most At Stake: Gallup

21. Obama Outperforms The Polls In: Arizona

22. Romney Outperforms The Polls In: Wisconsin

23. Obama Takes Popular Vote Lead At: 3:17AM

24. States That Cause Election Night Freakouts: North Carolina (for GOP), Virginia (for Dems).

25. State That Surprises: North Carolina stays too close to call for a long, long time. And it could even vote for Obama.

26. Gary Johnson’s Best State: Montana, New Mexico

 

You won't be surprised to learn that I didn't spend especially long on each of these questions, so feel free to add more questions or offer better answers and it might get updated as the day goes on...

Support thought-provoking, quality journalism. Join The New Republic for $3.99/month.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

Show all 17 comments

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

17 comments

Gay Johnson? You can't prove that! Obama walks away with 303 or 332 electoral college votes, depending on Florida.

- DC Spence

November 6, 2012 at 9:14am

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Obama out-performs the last national polls. Pollster with its reputation about to be shredded: Rasmussen Republican voter suppression succeeds in making it closer than it should be.

- roidubouloi

November 6, 2012 at 9:21am

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Gay Johnson's best state should be wherever Gay Marriage is legal.

- wildboy

November 6, 2012 at 10:32am

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

For no good reason, Gay Johnson reminds me of Zane Starkewolf, one of the best-named Republican congressional candidates I've ever heard of. I believe someone on here said that with a name like that, he must be a part-time Congressional candidate, part-time gay porn star, full-time vampire hunter. Others seem to be welcoming the end of excessive campaign advertising. Me, I'm hoping we can get the election done with so that fantasies of the secret lives of politicians based on their wacky names are less bizarre than the fantasies that further and further batshit crazy Republicans want to actually inflict on the rest of us.

- janus

November 6, 2012 at 10:55am

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Obama loses the entire south, including Florida, NC, and Virginia. He loses by 3 or more points in each state. Obama sweeps Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. He wins by 3 or more points in each of these. A narrow 290-248 Electoral College victory.

- polcereal

November 6, 2012 at 10:58am

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

"Obama Takes Popular Vote Lead At: 3:17AM" 4 hours and ten nine minutes to go!

- Nusholtz

November 6, 2012 at 11:08am

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

These are pretty good guesses, but my information tells me that Obama will take the popular vote lead at 3:14 AM, not 3:17 AM. Honestly, learn how to read a poll, will ya?

- JakeH

November 6, 2012 at 11:23am

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

If my polling place here in the Raleigh area is any indication, the election here may already be have been decided by early voting in North Carolina. My polling place had more poll workers/observers than voters when I got there at 10:30am. Same when I left (actually fewer voters). My wife ran into the same thing at 9am this morning.

- tmmats

November 6, 2012 at 11:49am

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

States with most reduced percentage of eligible voters voting as compared to 2008: New York and New Jersey.

- wnalpert

November 6, 2012 at 12:13pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Around 8 p.m. Eastern, Romney will hold an impromptu news conference to change his positions based entirely on exit polling so far. Similar news conferences at 9 p.m. and 10 p.m.

- InsigniaCT

November 6, 2012 at 12:23pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Why on earth do you think Romney will outperform in Wisconsin? Yes, the Republicans are well organized, but so is OFA (and, to a much lesser extent, the Wis Democratic Party). Paul Ryan is not popular in much of the state (contrary to national pundit wisdom). Scott Walker did win because of huge amounts of money but also because Recall Movement was dumb enough to schedule a June election (!!!) which probably spotted Walker five points. This is a presidential year.

- lfriedla

November 6, 2012 at 12:33pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

roid, Rasmussen doesn't have much reputation left to shred. Leave that to Gallup, who yesterday predicted that Romney would win the popular vote while giving Obama a 52 - 45 approval - disapproval rating. Gallup is toast. Our main worry today should not be Romney winning the popular vote while Obama wins the electoral college. It should be (the very slight chance of) Obama winning the popular vote while losing the electoral college due to voter suppression in places like Ohio and Florida. God save the republic then.

- timteeter

November 6, 2012 at 12:54pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Talking about OH and FL, I just heard from a friend who lives in Poughkeepsie NY that her name was tagged "inactive" on the register by the GOP-dominated Board of Elections despite the fact that she voted there in the last two federal elections. Somehow I don't think we're going to get clean election procedures until the Swedes or someone get the job of running registration and polling.

- ironyroad

November 6, 2012 at 1:04pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

State most likely to leave a liberal scratching his head in wonder: Minnesota, which may go for Obama and Klobuchar, yet amend its constitution to ban gay marriage.

- Fishpeddler

November 6, 2012 at 2:30pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Well, what about the 3:17 prediction? Did it happen?

- Nusholtz

November 6, 2012 at 3:39pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Wrong on biggest GOPelection night freak out, that one will be Florida. The Romney camp will be counting on FL to give them a sliver of hope early in the night before the Midwestern & Mountain West polls close, but the FL race will remain too close to call until the wee hours, sparking much wailing and gnashing of teeth in Boston, and then in the end the Subshine State will go blue, driving a stake through the heart of Romney/Ryan.

- AaronW

November 6, 2012 at 5:00pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Next agenda item for GOP voter suppression: Early Voting. Nationwide, this will prove highly effective at getting people who work brutal, unchangeable schedules to vote. These people are disproportionately Democrats. Thus, a cry for a return to "traditional voting" in which the polls are open during bankers' hours on Tuesday only.

- gwcross

November 6, 2012 at 5:02pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

SHARE HIGHLIGHT

0 CHARACTERS SELECTED

TWEET THIS

POST TO TUMBLR

SHARE ON FACEBOOK

Close