ELECTIONATE NOVEMBER 6, 2012
If you were hoping for state by state predictions, tough luck.
Since I mainly trust the polls, my "predictions" aren't really mine (they're the polls) and they don't really add much value unless I'm dissenting. And if you’ve been following this blog and the polls, you can probably guess the basic outline of what I think will happen on Tuesday night.
So here are 27 random predictions that might be more thought provoking than repeating some variant of the current polls. When it was close or defensible, I tried to go with a somewhat interesting answer...
1. Obama’s Best State: Hawaii
2. Romney’s Best State: Utah
3. Obama’s Best County: DC (if it counts) or Prince Georges, MD
4. Romney’s Best County: Rich County, UT
5. State That Moves Most Toward Romney: Utah
6. State That Moves Most Toward Obama: Arizona
7. County That Moves Most Toward Romney: Dubois County, IN
8. County That Moves Most Toward Obama: Maricopa County, AZ
9. Closest State: Florida
10. Romney's Best Battleground: North Carolina
11. Obama's Best Battleground: Nevada
12. State That Provides #270: Nevada
13. State Closest To National Average: Ohio; runner up, Iowa
14. Colorado or Virginia: Romney does better in Colorado than Virginia.
15. Minnesota or Pennsylvania: Romney does better in Pennsylvania
16. Iowa or New Hampshire: Romney does better in New Hampshire
17. Arizona or Georgia: Obama does best in Arizona.
18. Indiana or Missouri: Romney does best in Indiana.
19. Breakout Pollster: YouGov
20. Pollster With Most At Stake: Gallup
21. Obama Outperforms The Polls In: Arizona
22. Romney Outperforms The Polls In: Wisconsin
23. Obama Takes Popular Vote Lead At: 3:17AM
24. States That Cause Election Night Freakouts: North Carolina (for GOP), Virginia (for Dems).
25. State That Surprises: North Carolina stays too close to call for a long, long time. And it could even vote for Obama.
26. Gary Johnson’s Best State: Montana, New Mexico
You won't be surprised to learn that I didn't spend especially long on each of these questions, so feel free to add more questions or offer better answers and it might get updated as the day goes on...