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Go Home Civilian Control? Surely, You Jest.

FOREIGN POLICY AUGUST 18, 2010

Civilian Control? Surely, You Jest.

The principle of civilian control forms the foundation of the American system of civil-military relations, offering assurance that the nation’s very powerful armed forces and its very influential officer corps pose no danger to our democracy. That’s the theory at least, the one that gets printed in civics books and peddled to the plain folk out in Peoria.    

Reality turns out to be considerably more complicated. In practice, civilian control—expectations that the brass, having rendered advice, will then loyally execute whatever decision the commander-in-chief makes—is at best a useful fiction.

In front of the curtain, the generals and admirals defer; behind the curtain, on all but the smallest of issues, the military’s collective leadership pursue their own agenda informed by their own convictions of what is good for the country and, by extension, for the institutions over which they preside. In this regard, the Pentagon’s behavior does not differ from that of automakers, labor unions, the movie business, environmental groups, the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, the Israel lobby, or the NAACP.

In Washington, only one decision is considered really final—and that’s the one that goes your way. Senior military officers understand these rules and play by them. When the president or secretary of defense acts in ways not to their liking—killing some sought-after weapons program, for example—they treat that decision as subject to review and revision.

To overturn or modify a policy they judge objectionable, military leaders forge alliances with like-minded members of Congress, for whom the national interest tends to coincide with whatever benefits their constituents. Senior officers also make their case by working the press, not infrequently by leaking material that will embarrass or handcuff their nominal superiors.

Sometimes, the military strikes preemptively, attempting to influence decisions not yet made. A classic example occurred in 1993: Led by General Colin Powell, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the senior uniformed leadership mounted a fierce and very effective campaign to prevent President Bill Clinton from acting on his announced intention to allow gays to serve openly in the military. Powell and his confreres prevailed. A humiliated Clinton beat a hasty retreat and, thereafter, took care not to court trouble with an officer corps that made little effort to conceal its lack of fondness for him.

A more recent example occurred just a year ago. With President Obama agonizing over what to do about Afghanistan, The Washington Post offered for general consumption the military’s preferred approach, the so-called McChrystal Plan. Devised by General Stanley McChrystal, who had been appointed by Obama to command allied forces in Afghanistan, the plan called for a surge of U.S. troops and the full-fledged application of counterinsurgency doctrine—an approach that necessarily implied a much longer and more costly war.

The effect of this leak, almost surely engineered by some still unidentified military officer, was to hijack the entire policy review process, circumscribing the choices available to the commander-in-chief. Rushing to the nearest available microphone, members of Congress (mostly Republicans) announced that it was Obama’s duty to give the field commander whatever he wanted. McChrystal himself made the point explicitly. During a speech in London, he categorically rejected the notion that any alternative to his strategy even existed: It was do it his way or lose the war. The role left to the president was not to decide, but simply to affirm.

The leaking of the McChrystal Plan constituted a direct assault on civilian control. At the time, however, that fact passed all but unnoticed. Few of those today raising a hue-and-cry about PFC Bradley Manning, the accused WikiLeak-er, bothered to protest. The documents that Manning allegedly made public are said to endanger the lives of American troops and their Afghan comrades. Yet, a year ago, no one complained about the McChrystal leaker providing Osama bin Laden and the Taliban leadership with a detailed blueprint of exactly how the United States and its allies were going to prosecute their war.

The absence of any serious complaint reflected the fact that, in Washington—especially in the press corps—military leaks aimed at subverting or circumscribing civilian authority are accepted as standard fare. It’s part of the way Washington works.

Which brings us to the present and to what is stacking up to be an episode likely to reveal a great deal about how much or how little actual civilian control currently exists. In adopting the McChrystal Plan, Obama added this caveat: U. S. troops will begin withdrawing from Afghanistan by July 2011. Before the president or anyone in his administration had explained exactly what that July 2011 deadline signifies, General McChrystal departed the scene, having violated the dictum that calls on senior officers to sustain, in public at least, the pretense of respecting civilians.

To replace McChrystal—and to forestall the growing impression that things in Afghanistan are falling apart—Obama appointed General David Petraeus, an officer possessing in abundance the finesse and political savvy that McChrystal lacks. Having now sacked two successive commanders in Afghanistan, Obama can hardly afford to fire a third, least of all someone of Petraeus’s exalted stature. It would be akin to benching Tom Brady or trading Derek Jeter. You might be able to pull it off, but not without paying a very severe price. You might even find yourself out of a job.

Within the past week, complaints dribbling out of Petraeus’s headquarters in Kabul—duly reported by an accommodating press—indicate growing military unhappiness with the July 2011 pullout date. Now, Petraeus himself has begun to weigh in directly. This past weekend, he launched his own media campaign, offering his “narrative” of ongoing events. Unlike the ham-handed McChrystal, who chose a foreign capital as his soapbox, Petraeus sat for a carefully orchestrated series of interviews with The New York Times, The Washington Post, and NBC’s “Meet the Press,” each of which gratefully passed along the general’s view of things.

In the course of sitting for these interviews, Petraeus placed down a marker, one best captured by the headline in the Times dispatch: “Petraeus Opposes a Rapid Pullout in Afghanistan.” Or, as The Daily Beast put it, adding a twist of hyperbole, Petraeus told “David Gregory that he has the right to delay Obama's 2011 pull-out target for troops in Afghanistan." A bit over the top, but you get the drift.

Dexter Filkins of the Times interpreted Petraeus’s comments as “a preview of what promise[s] to be an intense political battle over the future of the American-led war in Afghanistan.” The operative word in that statement is “political,” with the stakes potentially including not only the ongoing war, but an upcoming presidential election.

At the center of that battle will be a very political general, skilled at using the press and with friends aplenty on Capitol Hill, especially among Republicans. To have a chance of winning reelection in 2012, Obama needs to demonstrate progress in shutting down the war. Yet it is now becoming increasingly apparent the general Obama has placed in charge of that war entertains a different view.

One, but not both, will have his way. Between now and July 2011, when it comes to civilian control, even the folks in Peoria will have a chance to learn what the civics books leave out.

Andrew J. Bacevich is a professor of international relations at Boston University and author of Washington Rules: America's Path to Permanent War.

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"In adopting the McChrystal Plan, Obama added this caveat: U. S. troops will begin withdrawing from Afghanistan by July 2011." The caveat itself has its own caveat. It makes the withdrawal dependent on "conditions on the ground", which gives room to both sides -- the White House and the generals. Besides, wasn't the July 2011 deadline just a date to begin an assessment of the progress we've made or not made? That is, those advocates of the McChrystal plan have the burden to prove the viability of their plan. They must show with good evidence that progress is being made and would be made continuously, or else the draw down begins. And the only debate would then be the pace of withdrawal. No?

- scrubby

August 18, 2010 at 8:02am

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Andrew's article doesn't really deal with the July 2011 goal on substantive grounds, so he needn't address the issue, but most other coverage of the July 2011 withdrawal date ignores the critical question of overall American troop capacity. In other words, given current standards for troop rotation, deployment and retraining periods, how many troops can we maintain in Afghanistan up to and beyond the July 2011 date? If I'm reading Pentagon reports correctly, we have a total of about 13,000 fighting troops who could be deployed to Afghanistan (or anywhere else) right now. That's a very thin margin. Do we even have sufficient numbers of troops scheduled to be ready for deployment to replace those who must leave Afghanistan in 2011, and have we any capacity to increase overall troop levels in Afghanistan next year, or is a slow decrease in the American deployment an inevitable result of the personnel math? These are basic questions that one does not see even raised in most coverage of the issue. As I said, I don't blame Andrew for not raising the issue here, since it's at best tangential to his point, but it does have some bearing: If the infantry cupboard is as bare in July 2011 as it was in July 2010, then it won't matter what Petraeus or any general wants.

- rhubarbs

August 18, 2010 at 8:52am

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Obama's view is that the military will either have shown by July 2011 that there is no point to continuing the war (ie, that their strategy is not working) or will have achieved enough by that strategy that fewer troops will be needed beyond that point. That is what Gates, Mullen and Petraeus have assured the President -- that July 2011 was time enough to be in that either/or condition. He isn't going to let them off that hook, nor should he. They had their chance last year to make the case for a longer commitment. They didn't make that case - either didn't try or failed miserably (as they have failed on the ground in both Iraq and Afghanistan). The thought of these bozo's influencing our national security policy is deeply disconcerting. What troubles me isn't so much that Petraeus and the other generals might disagree with the President, but when they had their chance to make their case to him directly, they didn't -- that they appear to prefer a campaign of sneaky leaks and public comments intended to undermine a policy they pledged to support. I think it is interesting that Gates has announced he will be leaving his post next year, an announcement timed to coincide with the none-too-subtle interviews with Petraeus. I suspect, and hope, that both will be gone by then, if they can't produce the desired results. Neil

- purcellneil

August 18, 2010 at 9:59am

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Bob Herbert includes this excerpt from Jonathan Alter's "The Promise" in a recent Op-Ed in the Times. [President Obama to General Petraeus:] “David, tell me now. I want you to be honest with me. You can do this in eighteen months?” Mr. Petraeus replied: “Sir, I’m confident we can train and hand over to the A.N.A. [Afghan National Army] in that time frame.” The president went on: “If you can’t do the things you say you can in eighteen months, then no one is going to suggest we stay, right?” “Yes, sir, in agreement,” said General Petraeus. Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was also at the meeting, and he added his own crisp, “Yes, sir.”

- purcellneil

August 18, 2010 at 10:34am

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Excellent article Prof. Bacevich. However I believe that you twice used the word "circumscribe" instead of "circumvent" to describe what the military has been doing to civilian rule, which would be more in line with the overall thesis of your article.

- dossevi

August 18, 2010 at 12:41pm

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By staying in Afghanistan, we will repeat the outstanding success we had in staying in Vietnam to build a nation that has been a constant bastion of Democracy and a friend of the West. If we leave Afghanistan, all counties in the region will fall like dominoes and it will be at least a century before we have decent relations with any of them who will have our destruction as their primary reason for existence. Just like would have happened if we were ever to have left Vietnam without winning. Just like Vietnam, we are supporting a government that is a model of transparency, efficiency, and lack of corruption that the inhabitants strongly prefer to their dastardly evil opponents. As in Vietnam, more and more Americans support this obviously winning strategy and will continue to do so for the decade of effort and $1-$4T needed for victory, especially since there are no pressing domestic needs on which those same funds could be spent. It is a relief to know that we have followed Santayana’s advice that those who do not learn the lessons of History are doomed to repeat them. Furthermore, speaking of lessons of History, Afghanistan is LONG overdue to be ruled by a non-native military force, given that multiple others have failed for over two millennia.

- drofnats1

August 18, 2010 at 1:10pm

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Tension and disagreement between the chief executive and military leaders is normal and healthy. I don't doubt Obama's and Petraeus's differences will be resolved over time. Obama is lucky (imo) to have as smart and politically adroit a military leader as Petraeus, and vice versa.

- Tgossard

August 18, 2010 at 1:52pm

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I believe Bacevich used the word "circumscribe" correctly, to indicate that the military has tried to limit or restrict the choices available to civilian leaders.

- purcellneil

August 18, 2010 at 10:22pm

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