JONATHAN CHAIT SEPTEMBER 30, 2010
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David Broder today argues that the rise in self-identified conservatives is a big problem for Democrats:
Sometimes the most important clues are hiding in plain view. That was the case in late June, when the Gallup Organization reported that the share of voters who describe themselves as conservative had increased from 37 percent to 42 percent in the past two years.
That does not sound like a big change. But given the long-term stability of basic philosophical alignments, the reaction it measured to the economic troubles and the performance of the new Democratic administration is very significant.
Hmm. The trouble here is that ideological self-identification is a pretty shaky measure of what voters believe, and the numbers bounce around without much correlation to real-world changed. Here's Gallup's historical chart of ideological self-identification:
This doesn't seem to tell us much about political performance in any given year, does it? James Downie created a handy chart comparing the Republican Party share of the two-party vote, on the left, with the percentage of the electorate self-identifying as conservative, along the bottom:
Not much correlation there. Now, it's clear Republicans are going to gain a lot of seats in 2010, but there's not much evidence that the rise of self-identifying conservatives has anything to do with it.
5 comments
This is characteristic of David Broder's sloppy thinking and writing. Self-identification with a political philosophy is not a reliable indicator of electoral results. It's the economy, stupid, is a much better indicator. That is the primary reason why the Republicans stand to reap major gains on November 2nd. Take note, purveyors of the Wehner Fallacy. Although I know you won't. The cynical ones among you will continue employing this disgusting fallacy for all it's worth and the fatuous among you won't know any better.
- liberal reformer
September 30, 2010 at 4:08pm
Or: "Who Cares What David Broder Says Anymore?"
- W_Bombay
September 30, 2010 at 4:16pm
- As usual, his light bulb goes on after a free lunch, meeting someone he cornered at a party or sitting across the table from a fellow fossil where everyone pretends they don't speak English. This wake-up came from Third Way and he only got a clue, before he ran with it. After experimenting with their claim he saves his (their) genius for the end: It isn't about Democrats or Republicans! "While the middle has always played a pivotal role in American electoral politics, where they swing this fall will certainly decide the fate of the Democratic majority." Holy cow! That pesky block of voters that reliably hover in the high teens may matter. He warned us, "...important clues are hiding in plain view." and he kept that one buried till the end. One in five voters who don't take sides are the deciders and he wrote a column on self-identified... Never mind.
- michaelg
September 30, 2010 at 4:17pm
I do, actually. Every other month, or something like that, David Broder can write a fine column. But all too many of his columns for years and years now have been characterized by sloppy thinking and a faux even-handedness.
- liberal reformer
September 30, 2010 at 4:33pm
People should be judged by what they actually support, not how they categorize themselves. We keep hearing from conservatives that we're a "center-right" country. Yet polls show little support for cutting Medicare or Social Security. I doubt most people support getting rid of the minimum wage. You can probably find majorities that say they want "smaller government," but you'll have a hard time finding majorities that would make it significantly smaller (sorry, cutting the National Endowment for the Arts doesn't qualify). The whole problem with self-identification was summarized by the health care reform protesters with the signs "Keep your government hands off my Medicare!" I think a lot of people are hardly consistent about what they think they want and what they actually support.
- dsimon
October 1, 2010 at 4:21pm