JONATHAN CHAIT DECEMBER 21, 2010
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I was just reminiscing about the halcyon era of a popular New Jersey governor whose brash style and Reaganite agenda took the Garden State by storm, proving that true conservative principles can win the day even in deep blue states. Come on the nostalgia tour with me, won't you? Here's Jennifer Rubin at Commentary:
The good news for Christie fans is that there are a few scraps suggesting that he hasn’t entirely closed the door on a 2012 run. (”Christie’s actions aren’t those of someone who has ruled out a presidential bid.”) His staff’s YouTube videos, the trip to Iowa, and some whispers from his political confidantes are encouraging those in the GOP who are searching for Mr. Right.
But the premise underlying the piece is a bit off. The reason Christie has become a “star” is not because he’s captured the imagination of the “sane” wing of the party but because he transcends the divide (which is part real and part media-driven hype) between Tea Partiers and establishment Republicans. He combines serious governance with political theater. He’s got undeniable stage presence, but he’s also a serious budget wonk. He has no patience with political insiders, yet he’s learned to handle his opponents. And he’s become a master at disarming the liberal media without personal acrimony or a sense of victimhood.
Daniel Foster at National Review:
The administration is confident they have the best man to shape that discussion, and the ubiquity in the right-of-center blogosphere of YouTube videos showing Christie speaking eloquently, and extemporaneously, about his vision suggests they have it right.
“I don’t think you can underestimate the political capital the governor has accumulated in his first six months in office,” says Webber.
“The first six months were crucial for him to establish himself as somebody who’s willing to use the veto pen, someone who has a unified party behind him, someone who can rally the public to his point of view. And he’s shown all that. Now when the big fights come, he starts from a stronger position than he started from in February or March.”
If the citizens of New Jersey like candor, Chris Christie is the governor they’ve been waiting for.
And Matthew Continetti:
This is Chris Christie's moment. The New Jersey governor is touring the country in support of Republican candidates. He's taken on the public sector unions. He's made some hard calls. He speaks in a blunt, confrontational style. Yet he remains popular.
Guess what -- Christie isn't all that popular anymore:
As his first year draws to a close, New Jerseyans are split about Gov. Chris Christie’s job performance with a majority rating him only fair or poor, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton poll released today. Only 39 percent of Garden State residents rate the governor’s job performance either excellent (17 percent) or good (22 percent), compared to 54 percent who rate him fair (26 percent) or poor (28 percent), and 6 percent who are unsure. Support is stronger among those who say they voted in the recent congressional election: 21 percent of voters rate his performance excellent, and 23 percent rate him as good. Another 23 percent say he is doing a fair job and 29 percent say he is doing a poor job, while 4 percent of voters are unsure.
Christie won in 2009 because he represented the out party during an economic and fiscal crisis. His ratings are going down largely because he's slowly coming to represent the status quo and the economy still stinks. I suspect the people who gushed over the wondrous popularity of his rude behavior are going to slowly figure out that openly bullying people is not, in fact, a magical strategy, nor is hard-line conservatism a secret formula for winning the hearts of Americans everywhere.
19 comments
The reasons Jonathan offers for Christie's poll slippage are plausible. Nevertheless, I think it would be a big mistake to underestimate him. How many Republican governors or senators can you name who are not hypocrites or flat-out bullshitters? Not too many, I would imagine. Christie stands out, whatever today's polls say.
- JackR
December 21, 2010 at 4:07pm
A very weak Chait post. Christie looks good because he is good. Shaky polling data means little here, and should be ignored. Who's going to beat him in the next election?
- Robert Powell
December 21, 2010 at 4:20pm
Christie still looks good to Republicans, not so much to independents. The assault on teachers has caused some concern among those of us in New Jersey who care about education, and recognize the importance of good teachers. He fired his education commissioner, but only after his administration lost millions in federal aid to schools. So far, Christie has not been good for education. In addition, the bullying is appealing to tea partiers but is more than mildly repugnant to moderates. I don't think he is going anywhere in 2012, but the Republican field will be weak enough (again) that anything can happen. Neil
- purcellneil
December 21, 2010 at 4:45pm
They had Christie on 60 minutes last Sunday, as I recall. I have to admit I was very impressed by what he had to say; he was very candid about the state of the economy and the size of the problem his state faces. Overall, I have a bit more respect for him than before, but I still totally disagree with how he's gone about trying to balance the budget. For starters, he's focusing way too hard on teachers and education; I can't believe that that is the biggest boondoggle in NJ. I almost get the impression he's avoiding some of the real boondoggles, and if he is I bet it's because they're important political donors or he's personally benefitting from it. But I'm just guessing...
- GSpinks
December 21, 2010 at 5:13pm
Make no mistake, the Republicans have targeted teachers and their unions for the next election. Tim Pawlenty, another Republican contender, recently wrote an editorial in the Minneapolis Star Tribune attacking teachers' unions and attempting to blame them for all of the deficiencies in our educational system. In Pawlenty's case this is deeply cynical--he fails to acknowledge a sharp decline in per pupil funding as a culprit in the decline in education in Minnesota. Furthermore, I do not understand how you reform anything when you start by attacking one of the key players in the system. If you want to improve public education you must enlist all participants and hold them accountable--exactly what Obama and Arne Duncan have done. But improving public education is not the motive behind these attacks. Republicans are not concerned about governing. Rather, they are simply concerned with obtaining power. Demonizing teachers' unions has the ancillary benefit of undermining support for public education and justifying state and local tax cuts, largely for the benefit of high end taxpayers. Republican polling has obviously revealed that teachers' unions are unpopular and that this is a political winner. You can expect a barrage of these arguments over the next two years.
- spd1955
December 21, 2010 at 5:57pm
JackR and Mr. Powell, I don't think Chait's point is that Christie can't be reelected Governor of New Jersey in 2013. The point is that his dropping polls don't make it likely that he is Presidential or Vice Presidential material in 2012. I don't see how you can quibble with that conclusion.
- wildboy
December 21, 2010 at 6:19pm
People like thugs. Well, some people do. See Putin, see Berloscuni (sp?), see Palin (an interesting case, not merely because she's a female thug, but she actually is an EXPLICIT thug, she BRAGS about being a thug!) These days, I think in the U.S. the GOP has the corner on thugs. It was funny watching the right (led by Glenn Beck) attempt to fit Obama with a thug hat... nerdy, law-professor Obama... a BIG thug! Hilarious. I've noticed those efforts have slowed to a trickle, it was easier when he was less known. I think during the 50s and 60s the Dems had real thugs (Johnson?), but those days seem long gone. Might be able to make a case for Rahm Emanuel, but even that's kind of a stretch. Serious question, do you guys think Christie is a thug? I kinda think so, but don't know enough to be sure... I can't account for Christie's popularity, his naysaying that tunnel was the worst domestic public policy decision I can remember. His reasoning was breathtakingly stupid, something about minor cost overruns. Of course, it's totally obvious the tunnel is a steal at twice the price. A classic case of penny-wise/pound retarded. So, I'm thinking that it's his thug appeal that's the basis for his poll numbers. Do people agree?
- mmathog
December 21, 2010 at 7:03pm
In the nineteenth century it was the Democratic Party that used to vote against all kinds of national infrastructure improvements because they would undermine state authority and enable the federal government to have more influence. Now, 150 years on, the parties have switched roles places (ok it was the Whigs, not the Republicans, but the point holds).
- ironyroad
December 21, 2010 at 7:25pm
wildboy - well, it's all conjecture at this far remove, and it's a little early to posit likelihood, but in my book Christie from Joizy is still a contenduh.
- JackR
December 21, 2010 at 7:37pm
"Christie won in 2009 because he represented the out party during an economic and fiscal crisis." And he also faced an unpopular incumbent with some serious personal problems.
- RHSerlin
December 21, 2010 at 9:20pm
Running a state government and the Federal government is apple and oranges. Beating up on teachers is popular with the older GOP base. What would happen if Christie actually had town halls with seniors and told them they would have to take cuts in Medicare and Social Security? Suddenly, I think they would fall out of love with him.
- MikeB.
December 21, 2010 at 9:54pm
"They had Christie on 60 minutes last Sunday, as I recall." They did, and some have criticized the program for just letting him talk and not asking him tough questions. Christie asserted that he just doesn't have the money to fulfill government obligations to pension and benefit funds, but he's also apparently proposing business and income tax cuts--which sounds a wee inconsistent. http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/?p=44108
- dsimon
December 21, 2010 at 10:53pm
" 'Christie won in 2009 because he represented the out party during an economic and fiscal crisis.' And he also faced an unpopular incumbent with some serious personal problems." Yeah, it didn't hurt he was running against Mr. Wall Street. Codey would have held that seat, easy, likely been a better Governor, and no one would have heard of this schmo. Thanks again, Senator Moneybags.
- Crock1701
December 22, 2010 at 12:03am
When you are intellectually as weak as is RPowell, you shouldn't call posts weak that are written by the brilliant analyst, Jon Chait. Bullies don't go down well in America in presidential primaries. Wade on in if you wish, Mr Christie.
- liberal reformer
December 22, 2010 at 12:28am
LibRef: could you please stop flaming? You notice how everyone is civil to one another, even when disagreeing, until you show up and foul the place up? RobPowell and I don't agree on many stuff; intellectually weak he is not. Those who attack posters here and play sycophantic dogs to "brilliant analysts" are the ones in want to intellectual heft. Go to Spine, where this kind of bullying is not only accepted but encouraged.
- icarusr
December 22, 2010 at 4:38am
I think Christie is terrible, he wants to cap property taxes which will kneecap local municipalities, and they will bear the brunt of voter wrath for closed parks and other community services. He also canceled the proposed tunnel to Manhattan even though it had billions in matching grants. That rat bastard can take a helicopter into the city but for millions of commuters he just kneecapped them. He bitched about possible cost over runs, but as Governor in this economy he could have rung out a lot of cost savings, never mind the many jobs that would have been created. In Shanghai they add rail lines all the time but the NY NJ metro area can not build a new one? In fact, I find his canceling it to be bizarre since his whole governorship seems predicated on keeping the local rich happy. as to the middle class and poor I am sure he would be delighted to run them out of the state.
- blackton
December 22, 2010 at 8:29am
Where to start? This thread raises so many possiblities. Ok, I will start with intellectual bullying. I will start by confessing I have never seen Christie in action, and have no real desire to do so. With that said, the sorry state of knowledge among voters practically begs for a little bullying. How many voters outraged about the "death tax" do you think even suspect that it does not apply to them (unless they are very rich, in which case they know what it is), that it taxes estates not death, and that it moves forward the tax basis of capital assets? I, for one, would like to scream in their ignorant faces every time I hear some uninformed wing nut pontificate about the evils of government. Nonetheless, it does not seem to me that telling voters that they are stupid, no matter how richly deserved the insult, is not a good electoral strategy.
- spd1955
December 22, 2010 at 9:04am
Christie is an aggressively stupid bully. Sure, he's honest about it. Whoop de doo. That doesn't mean that he can't win elections. Being a stupid bully was a key component of W's success, after all.
- miceelf
December 22, 2010 at 9:45am
people seem to prefer the word 'bully' over 'thug', I'm fine with that...
- mmathog
December 22, 2010 at 2:19pm