JONATHAN CHAIT JANUARY 7, 2011
-
Read Later
READ LATERAvailable only to subscribers. SUBSCRIBE TODAY
-
Listen
ARTICLE AUDIO
- Font Size
You knew President Obama would cave on the Bush tax cuts when he first started saying that a deal was going to be made. In a brinkmanship fight, the most important weapon is the willingness to allow failure, or at least credibly threaten to do so.
So these comments from Paul Ryan on raising the debt ceiling are a red -- or rather, white -- flag:
Some conservative Republicans have urged their GOP colleagues to resist raising the ceiling -- which currently clocks in at $14.3 trillion -- under any circumstances. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota is collecting signatures on her PAC's website "to force our elected officials to stop spending cold turkey," and Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina has advocated for a "big showdown" with Democrats by blocking the raise.
But House Budget Chairman Rep. Paul Ryan says that tactic isn't viable. "Just refusing to vote for it, I don't think that's really a strategy," he said, noting that a failure to raise the ceiling could result in the nation defaulting on its debts to investors.
"Will the debt ceiling be raised? Does it have to be raised? Yes," he said at an event sponsored by economics21 and the Manhattan Institute at the National Press Club Thursday.
But Ryan suggested that Republicans can tweak some specifics of the move - how many years the increase covers, for example. And, more importantly, they can tack on requirements for deep spending cuts as a condition of passage. "I want to make sure we get substantial spending cuts and controls in exchange for raising the debt ceiling," he said.
At the end, Ryan says Republicans should attach some conditions about spending cuts. But once you've conceded that the limit is going to be raised, your ability to extract concessions is gone. My guess is that Republicans are hearing from the business lobby that even risking a default would be totally unacceptable.
8 comments
I like the microprint at the end of your post, Jonathan. Yes, the Republican Congressmen (and women) certainly must be hearing from the business community on raising the debt ceiling. But also, the saner ones surely have thought this through on their own and can see how untenable it would be to not raise the ceiling.
- liberal reformer
January 7, 2011 at 1:53pm
Lib ref is absolutely right. Who will suffer most in the event of a default? Bondholding investors, a/k/a the Republican base.
- spd1955
January 7, 2011 at 1:57pm
So I assume ya'll will be shocked SHOCKED when you learn that Obama agrees to compromise away much of what little stimulus spending existed in his outstanding Bush Tax Cut Bill in order to pass an increase in the debt ceiling?? And you with BHO will declare it another outstanding political win. A few more such wins and much Progressive legislation since the New Deal will be completely undone.
- drofnats1
January 7, 2011 at 2:16pm
The eternal fool dro surfaces again. He is like the right-wing hysteriacs who never tote up their failed predictions but keep right on making more.
- liberal reformer
January 7, 2011 at 2:46pm
Lib ref. Unlike you and fellow DINOs who predicted the outstanding political and policy success of the 3/09 stimulus package, Obamacare, BPA spill management, L'affaire Sherrod, financial reform, mortgage bailout, Afghan surge -- we foolish Progressives predicted otherwise. Your brilliance is aptly demonstrated by the outstanding success of the Dems in the midterms -- and will almost certainly be further confirmed by the outstanding politcal and policy success of the BHO-Bush compromise tax cut deal and increase of the debt ceiling associated with passage of .. universal heath care ??or are you predicting instead a stimulus package sufficient to decrease unemployment by over 2% in 18 months?? I can't wait to again be wrong.
- drofnats1
January 7, 2011 at 3:13pm
Funny, I didn't think Ryan, given his devotion to Ayn Rand, would do something so foriegn to her character of John Galt as "bow to reality". On the other hand, the Republicans have long been able to SAY things that would signal a compromise if a Democrat said them, and then blissfully move forward with their original policy intact. George Orwell would be so proud.
- AllanL5
January 7, 2011 at 3:48pm
And I think you're forgetting your own article, "Why you can't negotiate with Paul Ryan" -- http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/79615/why-you-cant-negotiate-paul-ryan
- AllanL5
January 7, 2011 at 3:58pm
I think Obama specifically chose the word progressive to distance himself from people like drofnats. epistemic closure isn't pretty, no matter which side is doing it.
- GSpinks
January 9, 2011 at 12:23pm