Jonathan Chait

The GOP Midwest Implosion Accelerates

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Gray Davis's pollster thinks Wisconsin Democrats will not only flip the state Senate, they'll recall Scott Walker when he's eligible for it next year:

Drawing on his work for Davis, Maslin said he believes both sides will succeed in gathering the necessary signatures to force recall elections. "I can remember many, many conference calls," he told The Huffington Post, "where various people who were supposedly experts" doubted the ability of Davis' opponents to force a recall. "The bottom line was, they had no problem getting the signatures. And this [was] 2003, before the advent of Facebook and social networking." ...

Perhaps not surprisingly, Maslin predicted that Democrats will succeed in recalling Republican senators and reclaiming a majority of the Wisconsin Senate, which he described as the "first act" leading ultimately to a recall election against Scott Walker and his ouster from office. "We will have an election next year to see who our governor is going to be, and I don't believe that [Walker's] situation will change enough" to allow him to prevail, he said.

And Sherrod Brown, the liberal-populist Democratic Ohio Senator until recently considered very vulnerable is now enjoying massive leads:

In December, polls showed Brown in a precarious position, barely leading relatively unknown Republicans in hypothetical 2012 contests. But in the latest survey, Brown has suddenly shot ahead of his GOP rivals, such that he now leads each of them by double-digit margins; his lead over one challenger exploded from a miniscule 2 points in December to 19 in the latest poll.

In the latest poll, Brown led Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor 49% to 30%, a drastic change from December when he led 40% to 38%. Similarly, his lead over Secretary of State Jon Husted grew from a five-point margin to a robust 15-point margin now, with Brown on top 49% to 34%. And Rep. Jim Jordan, who trailed by 10 points in December, now trails by 19, 49% to 30%.

This is happening so fast it's hard to believe. Are Republican governors creating that big of a backlash?

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