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Go Home How Michele Bachmann Could Win

JONATHAN CHAIT APRIL 5, 2011

How Michele Bachmann Could Win

BY JONATHAN CHAIT

Michelle Bachmann is starting to make a move in the GOP primary. She's drawing strong reviews for her public appearances. She out-raised Mitt Romney in the first quarter. She's hired Mike Huckabee's well-regarded political director. And yet most reporters still believe she has no chance to win the nomination. The most bullish assessment I've seen, by Ed Kilgore, concedes, "it’s hard to imagine someone as radical as her actually winning the nomination." But I think Bachmann is a legitimate dark-horse possibility to win the nomination.

Now, my model of how the nomination works presumes the nominee will probably be someone who's acceptable to both the activist base and the party elites. That argument took me, by process of elimination, to Tim Pawlenty, the only candidate who 1) the base won't disqualify, 2) the elites won't disqualify, and 3) actually seems to want to run. But, as Josh Marshall points out, if Bachmann wins in Iowa, she could knock Pawlenty out of the race.

Then what happens? Well, you'd see the GOP establishment scrambling to unify behind a non-insane alternative. But as I've argued ad nauseum, I don't think that will be Mitt Romney. Or, if it is Romney, I think Bachmann could probably beat him. She'd carve him to pieces over health care, not to mention general inauthenticity issues. Haley Barbour? Perhaps. I could also very well envision some kind of effort to draft a young right-wing heartthrob like Paul Ryan or Marco Rubio into the race.

The best parallel I think consider is Howard Dean. No, Dean is not anywhere near as crazy as Bachmann. That's not the point. Both tap deeply into a well of activist anger against a sitting president that is not being fully satisfied by other candidates. Both inspire passionate activist volunteers, and make their rivals look phony by comparison. And both inspire terror among the party leadership -- Democrats in 2003 considered Dean just as unelectable as Republicans now consider Bachmann.

Of course, Dean imploded right before the Iowa caucus. But he could have won, and he was on the verge of sweeping right through the primaries, as he picked up steam through 2003 and the opposition fractured. Republican elites will mount a determined opposition to Bachmann. While the effort may be successful -- the way GOP leaders rallied around Bob Dole to fend off Pat Buchanan in 1996 -- it may be a failure, like the effort to draft Wes Clark.

I think Bachmann has a genuine outside shot to win the nomination.

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25 comments

I don't know how electable Dem elites saw Dean in 2003, what I do know is that Dean 2004 was far more electable than Bachmann is in 2012. He typically ran a couple points behind the other Dems in head to head matches with Bush, but the difference was not major. Bachmann is more in Pat Buchanan 1996 territory. Also, what really propelled Dean was that he spoke out against the war when the war was popular, which was the Dem equivalent of buying stock in Microsoft in 1986. And contrary to many peoples' memories, he didn't accuse the US of imperialism or stealing oil, he just said the war was an unwise move. The result were lots of people who had a strong preference for him over other candidates. Many Republicans might like Bachmann, but those same Republicans will also like Pawlenty, Barbour, Palin and most other potential candidates. All that sets Bachmann apart is her propensity for weirdness and stupidity.

- WillPastor

April 5, 2011 at 1:22am

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Dean was MUCH more sane than Bachmann, some of the rhetoric may seem somewhat similar, but his basic platform was a return to the core approach of Clinton tax and economic policies, expanding healthcare coverage, and staying out of Iraq. Once it was clear we were going into Iraq he was finished, because that was what motivated the majority of his volunteers. Ultimately I believe his judgement on Iraq was 100% dead on - but he wasn't very charismatic and was too wonky on other issues to win the nomination. Bachmann has outrage, and is outrageous, but there is nothing more to her than that. Republicans are already losing a chunk of working class whites based on their recent anti union stances, are divided over a government shutdown, and are losing independents over their approach to opposing Obama's policies. I find it impossible to believe that she can piece together a coalition of any sort to win the nomination, she is just too polarizing.

- Attrill

April 5, 2011 at 2:07am

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It's the insanity offense.

- Nusholtz

April 5, 2011 at 6:37am

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"No, Dean is not anywhere near as crazy as Bachmann." He's crazy, mind you, just not "anywhere near as crazy as Bachmann". Does Chait really believe Dean is crazy, that a crazy man was allowed to practice medicine in Vermont, that the Democrats appointed a crazy man as chair of the DNC? I don't believe Dr. Dean will be inviting Chait to his house to celebrate Easter, although he may have a "genuine outside shot". If he does, not to worry. Dean doesn't know the difference between the Christian Bible (sometimes called the new testament) and the Hebrew Bible (sometimes called the old testament). Probably because he's crazy.

- rayward

April 5, 2011 at 7:27am

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If today is something of a slow news day, we could talk about the WORLD CHAMPION UCONN HUSKIES. Or the fact that Kemba Walker should be set in Bronze. Or something. I'm just putting that out there. As, you know, a suggestion.

- Tristan

April 5, 2011 at 7:47am

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Oh, and there's no way in hell Bachmann will get the nom. I don't care how apart from the uber-conservative right Romney may be in the eyes of many, if it ends up in a de facto contest between those two, the gop will rally behind the electable apostate over the utterly unelectable batshit crazy superconservative. This is still the same group of people (even less emotionally stable since Obama's election, I know) that held their nose and voted for McCain, after all. As much as I'd like to count on them doing something really goofy and rallying behind Bachmann (a woman described as "the ideal candidate for those who really like Sarah Palin but wish she were just a little less of an intellectual"), it aint gonna happen. But if it does, and Lord help us it somehow comes to pass that Michele Bachmann becomes President of the United States, I'm leaving earth.

- Tristan

April 5, 2011 at 7:58am

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Consider what happened in Delaware in the last election and ask yourself if this could somehow happen nationally. The answer, I think, is yes. Consider the early primary states. To get the nomination, Bachmann has to win both Iowa and South Carolina. This is, in fact, doable. Not likely, but doable. If I were a betting man, I would say that Bachmann will come in a close second in Iowa and fall apart before South Carolina. But there is a 25% possibility that she could win both--in which case the Republican party itself will implode.

- timteeter

April 5, 2011 at 8:18am

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TNR will never forgive Howard Dean for saying all those cruelly accurate things about their boy, Holy Joe Lieberman. Calling Dean "not anywhere near as crazy as Bachmann" is about as kind as Chait can manage.

- DC Spence

April 5, 2011 at 8:50am

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TNR will never forgive Howard Dean for saying all those cruelly accurate things about their boy, Holy Joe Lieberman. Calling Dean "not anywhere near as crazy as Bachmann" is about as kind as Chait can manage.

- DC Spence

April 5, 2011 at 8:50am

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TNR will never forgive Howard Dean for saying all those cruelly accurate things about their boy, Holy Joe Lieberman. Calling Dean "not anywhere near as crazy as Bachmann" is about as kind as Chait can manage.

- DC Spence

April 5, 2011 at 8:50am

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Wow, Chait posts at midnight, and by 9 a.m. there are 8-10 comments. Michele Bachmann certainly strikes a chord! If I remember correctly, the only reason the conventional wisdom on Dean is "Crazy" is because of his public reaction after he won the Michigan primary. It was unbelievable how suddenly a guy who previously used to be known as a righteously angry wonk suddenly became crazy because he exulted rather openly after a win.

- NR409654

April 5, 2011 at 9:13am

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NR - actually I think it was the I Have A Scream speech he gave after losing Iowa (shortly before bowing out and endosring Kerry).

- Tristan

April 5, 2011 at 9:25am

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"endorsing" Ugh. Sorry, spelling errors. I was up late watching the World Champion UCONN Huskies.

- Tristan

April 5, 2011 at 9:29am

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Of course she could win the nomination. Why shouldn't a raving lunatic be able to win the nomination of the Republican party? It is virtually a qualification for the nod, with the Romneys of the world trying hard to say enough insane stuff with a straight face so that they can be considered too.

- roidubouloi

April 5, 2011 at 9:44am

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Yesterday's NY Times had an article about the GOP selection process. They are going from winner take all to proportional in many states. It was not clear if they have made this change yet or if they intend to. Off hand this change would hurt Romney if there is a large field of wackos.

- stanmvp48

April 5, 2011 at 10:11am

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I actually think that a proportional division of delegates is Romney's only hope. If Bachmann won Iowa and New Hampshire (serious possibilities), then went into South Carolina (serious crazy country), she'd be well on her way to having the nomination locked up pretty damn early-so long as the Republicans stick with winner-take-all. I was actually surprised to find that this piece was about the revelation that Bachmann could win the Republican nomination; of course she can. The Republicans have gone frothing-at-the-mouth crazy. Boehner just told his caucus to prep for a shutdown last night and got a standing ovation. Ryan just proposed privatizing Medicare and eliminating Medicaid. Peter King is holding hearings on Muslim disloyalty. Nominating Bachmann is just the next logical step. I figured this would be about how she can beat Obama, but I think the only realistic way for that to happen involves possibilities that, if discussed, would get the Secret Service checking up on each of us.

- janus

April 5, 2011 at 10:28am

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I am not sure at all but I have been picturing a large group of nuts and Romney; who, despite his groveling, is still the candidate of the 30% of the voters who are in marginal contact with reality and runs first with a plurality. This is essentially what happened in 2008, I think. In a proportional system, he would have 30% and the others would have 70%. As I say, Iam not sure at all.

- stanmvp48

April 5, 2011 at 10:41am

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I go with "Kemba Walker should be set in Bronze" although perhaps a bronze statue would be more appropriate than killing Walker in a bronze dip :) In 2008, I listened to Bachmann discussing mark-to-market accounting practices in a House hearing, and thought she was a very smart tax attorney. I have not followed her descent into whatever is making her wild-eyed these days (except for her Concord geography blunder), but keep thinking she may be crazy like a fox. Anyway, the GOP change to proportional delegates changes their entire nomination dynamic, and I am still waiting to hear Jon Huntsman speak before engaging in any further speculation.

- K2K

April 5, 2011 at 10:50am

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One big difference between Bachmann and Dean is that Dean didn't regularly make factual assertions that were demonstrably false. But she could still get the nomination because so many people believe what they want to believe, and facts don't matter to them.

- dsimon

April 5, 2011 at 10:54am

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You read it here first Michele Bachmann will not get the GOP nomination.

- liberalref

April 5, 2011 at 11:23am

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The scary thing about MB is that she's more crazy than stupid, if she's even stupid at all. Can you imagine her petulantly whining about having to study talking points with McCain's handlers as Palin did? I can't. Her beliefs are crazy, but she does not lack aptitude. Palin is the reverse. She's not so crazy. She's just not very bright.

- Jonas

April 5, 2011 at 11:49am

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Jonas - After watching Bachmann explain how 1700s MA and modern-day NH are one and the same in her mind, I certainly can imagine that level of petulance from her. I also think you're underestimating how crazy Palin is. She fired her Public Safety Commissioner for not assisting in a family feud with her ex-brother-in-law, spent $150,000 of campaign money on clothes, disparaged McCain's campaign for not treating her like a queen, and finally quit as governor over media criticism. She's a textbook narcissist to go with how mind-bogglingly stupid she is. And since Palin's apparently staying out, Bachmann can now seize the "lunatic moron beauty queen" role in the Republican nomination process...

- janus

April 5, 2011 at 2:02pm

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It's probably too much to hope for the Republican Party and the Tea Party to field rival candidates.

- frippo

April 5, 2011 at 4:16pm

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"My fellow red-blooded, patriot-loving Americans, I stand before you as the first woman elected to the highest office in our great land of America the Beautiful and the home of free and land of the brave. My election as your next President of the United States of America sends a clear signal to those in our country that freedom loving Americans are here to take her back from the brink of despair and social liberalism and return us back to the roots of our Founding Fathers. Fathers that believed in a higher power, a higher God that believes in America. Our Founding Fathers knew the truth and made it so when they wrote the Constitution and Bill of Rights. Our right to be free from the Godless. Not all cultures are equal. But Americans want our culture to be free from gay marriage and abortion and I will work tirelessly to rid America of such threats to our culture. We’re in a state of crisis where our nation is literally ripping apart at the seams right now, and lawlessness is occurring from one ocean to the other. And we’re seeing the fulfillment of the Book of Judges here in our own time, where every man doing that which is right in his own eyes—in other words, anarchy. But I will work hard to make saving America again into the mountain of light that she beacons for the world to follow. So with that, I want to say I am so proud to be your new president. Thank you and may God Bless the United States of America!" Somehow the citizenry of the U.S. will vote her in.

- singlspeed

April 5, 2011 at 5:55pm

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scary!

- GSpinks

April 5, 2011 at 9:22pm

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