JONATHAN CHAIT APRIL 8, 2011
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Phillip Klein reads the tea leaves and thinks the shutdown will not happen:
Moments ago, House Speaker John Boehner, R-Oh.., and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, R-Nev., made public statements about the state of negotiations, with a shutdown looming at midnight Friday. While both indicated that there was no deal, my reading is that they're close to a deal, and are merely laying the groundwork to explain any compromise to their respective political bases.
The gist of their remarks was this: Boehner, in a less than one minute statement to reporters, said that most of the policy issues had been resolved, and now it comes down to whether Democrats were going to accept more spending cuts, while Reid insisted on the Senate floor that they had already agreed on spending cut numbers, but that the only issue that remained was Planned Parenthood funding.
What this suggests to me is that the ultimate deal, as most veteran observers expected all along, will be that Democrats will agree to more spending cuts and that Republicans will agree to drop the Planned Parenthood provision. By making the statements they have today, when a deal is reached, Reid and President Obama could tell the frustrated liberal base that they fought to protect "women's health" (their euphamism for Planned Parenthood). Meanwhile, Boehner will tout the spending cuts they were able to extract from Reid in the face of conservative criticism for caving on funding for the nation's largest abortion provider.
9 comments
I thought that a government shutdown would very likely occur, but now it looks as though Boner might go soft at the 11th hour. As I just wrote to a friend in an email, whether or not a shutdown happens all comes down to what Boner fears most - the Tea Party in his caucus or public opinion.
- liberalref
April 8, 2011 at 1:57pm
Seems plausible, I say it's 50/50 a shutdown occurs.
- Pnaut
April 8, 2011 at 2:12pm
I don't see how what Boehner is saying differs from what Boehner has BEEN saying. "We're close". "We don't want to shutdown the Government". "But we're not going to compromise on blah, blah, blah". Meanwhile, Obama has been prevented from restoring the Bush tax-cuts, has agreed to 3 billion in spending cuts for a 1 WEEK extension, then 6 billion for a THREE WEEK extension, and now he's being asked for 12 Billion for a ONE WEEK extension AND taking the military off the table. OR, capitulate on 33 Billion, nope, 35 Billion, nope, 39 Billion (well, maybe) and shutting down Planned Parenthood. And Boehner, the ENTIRE TIME, is saying "we're close...". That doesn't predict anything.
- AllanL5
April 8, 2011 at 2:21pm
If I didn't want to have a federal government I would do everything the Republicans have done. Drop taxes and then run two expensive wars; threaten to hold my breath, like a brat, if taxes are raised to cover the deficit; childishly nitpick over chickensh*t in the budget so nothing can get done; issue proclamations that I have a plan to fix the government, while actually ruining the government; and when called upon to pass important legislation, like a little kid, call the President names. Where is that adult conversation about the deficit that they were talking about anyway?
- Nusholtz
April 8, 2011 at 3:31pm
I was under the impression that under the rules introduced by Speaker Boehner for the 112th congress, the house couldn't pass anything until its members had three days to look it over, which would push the final signing date back to Tuesday or so - am I remembering or understanding this incorrectly?
- dijibell
April 8, 2011 at 3:36pm
That was surprisingly easy to find: Rules of the House Rule XXI, s(11): it's out of order to consider a bill less than three days after a committee has reported on it. But in a testament to the complexity of the Federal gov't, I'm still unsure of the possible budget passing schedule: Presumably if a budget agreement was reached the house could muster 2/3rds to suspend the rule, except Rule XV, s(1) only allows for suspension votes on Mon, Tues, and Wed. Then we'd be shut down at least until Tuesday morning...However, Wikipedia seems to think the House can take a vote on whether or not to allow a suspension vote on another day, though I can't find anything in the rules.
- dijibell
April 8, 2011 at 4:14pm
Their having a grand old time squeezing concessions out of Reid and Obama; there's no way they don't shut down until Planned Parenthood is scrapped.
- GSpinks
April 8, 2011 at 5:14pm
Yet another "pundit" that is wrong. Again. Are the DC press corp ever right? It looks like another shutdown is coming. Why was it so hard to see for these supposed experts? When you have one side that has a large, influential contingent (aka teabaggers) that revels in the thought of shutting down the federal government was it ever in any doubt it would happen? Why is that so hard to see? My only wish is the first thing that gets cut off are social security checks and medicare payments. Let the "I got mine, go die in a hole" generation get a good kick in the head with what they wanted.
- tmmats
April 8, 2011 at 6:48pm
Always good to wait until it's been decided to declare that a prediction is wrong. As predicted, the shutdown did not occur last night. It may occur in another week, but that's another prediction.
- miceelf
April 9, 2011 at 10:32am