JONATHAN CHAIT MAY 18, 2011
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Mike Allen describes the Republican panic over the party's presidential field. It's a terrific piece of reporting, confirming everything we've known or suspected about how the party elites think of their field. For reasons I find strange, they desperately want a savior from outside the field, and consider Mitch Daniels, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie the most plausible white knights. I wrote a column for the New York Times magazine explaining my incomprehension with their assessment of these figures. I'd note that that the latest poll on Christie, which came out after that column, he sports an approval rating of 38%, with 56% disapproving. New Jersey may be a blue state, but this is not a sign that Christie's overbearing style wears especially well.
Allen reports, as we all suspected, that the prospect of a Michelle Bachmann nomination "terrifies Washington Republicans," an assessment I share. Historically, a candidate so staunchly opposed by the elite will lose. But Pawlenty Bachmann has powerful support among the kinds of conservatives who communicate to the party base. Rush Limbaugh loves her. Fellow conservative talk radio host Hugh Hewitt raved about her when I appeared on his show last night. Bill Kristol is a fan. Given the growing power of the grassroots vis a vis the elite -- Republicans toppled party-approved nominees in several Senate and House primaries this year -- and Bachmann's ability to win validation from at least some conservative thought leaders, if a clear alternative fails to emerge, she could really pull it off.
What I don't understand is why the party elites have so little enthusiasm for Tim Pawlenty, who seems like an adequate nominee -- lacking any special political skills, but not burdened by any prominent weaknesses, either. I haven't really dug into Pawlenty's record, so I don't know if the Republican ennui toward him is based on a real weakness or simply an unrealistic desire to be swept off their feet. If that white knight fails to ride in -- or if he rides in and falls on his face -- I expect them to reconcile themselves to the generic former Republican governor from Minnesota.
10 comments
Jon, I think you wrote "Pawlenty" in paragraph 2 when you meant to write "Bachmann."
- benjamin81
May 18, 2011 at 10:03am
I guess liking Michelle Bachmann is a matter of priorities. For instance, it bothers me that Michelle Bachmann makes facts up to allow her to maintain her world view. This would not bother Rush Limbaugh.
- Nusholtz
May 18, 2011 at 11:11am
I've got a feeling that there is more to Pawlenty than some people realize or are willing to admit. He's not just an empty suit. In a bad economy he could rally anti-Obama forces in ways that a Bachmann could not. All he needs is one really good moment--a good debate, a Sister Souljah moment at the right point in the media cycle--to set a different media narrative, one that takes him seriously.
- timteeter
May 18, 2011 at 11:13am
Does anyone else think she looks like an expensive call girl in that photo? That's probably why Limbaugh loves her; I bet he would love nothing better than to serve her while she's in office.
- GSpinks
May 18, 2011 at 12:10pm
Call girl? She looks far more like an apocalyptic nutter.
- liberalref
May 18, 2011 at 12:53pm
Umm...Pawlenty, "Not burdened by any prominent weaknesses?" Is this some sort of joke? Any public debate about investments in infrastructure is going to include tv ads depicting the I-35 bridge collapse. Thirteen people died, the primary downtown connection between the Twin Cities was severed, and the replacement bridge cost $250 million. All necessary because Pawlenty balanced his budget by cutting state transportation funding. He'd appointed his Lt. Governor Transportation Commissioner; she admitted later that she'd never even looked at the bridge inspection reports. Even after the bridge collapse, he threatened to veto the 2008 state transportation budget when the legislature dared suggest increasing funding to actually, you know, fix things. And that's before we even get into the fun stuff, like his State Commissoner of Health talking about how abortion causes breast cancer...
- janus
May 18, 2011 at 1:42pm
"or simply an unrealistic desire to be swept off their feet." When your policies -- what you'll actually do -- are really harmful to the vast majority, you're forced to rely on grossly misleading, outright lying, and superficial charisma. They know it's really important to have someone with strong superficial charisma to keep people from thinking about and voting based on what the candidates will actually do that will profoundly affect hundreds of millions of Americans. They get very nervous when they don't have someone with a good ol' boy accent or beauty contest titles.
- RHSerlin
May 18, 2011 at 1:49pm
It's because Pawlenty looks and speaks like an overgrown mouse.
- polcereal
May 18, 2011 at 1:56pm
So we're all in agreement that Pawlenty's bizarre campaign movie trailers have been useless? Hey, at least he tackled unemployment by giving an ambitious team of film editors a good gig.
- Konstantin
May 18, 2011 at 3:15pm
Pawlenty is more than an empty suit in the same exact sense that Mitt Romney is more than an empty suit, except with worse hair and more conventional underpants. he's a weasel. To the extent that he was ever heard to say anything reasonable, he's apologized profusely for having done so. The choice really is between reasonable people who are sociopathic enough to pretend to be completely crazy and those who don't have to pretend.
- miceelf
May 19, 2011 at 8:47am