JONATHAN CHAIT MAY 24, 2011
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The Republican spin about the special election in New York is that it's a fluky event brought about by a third-party spoiler candidacy. I initially gave that line some credence, but the closer I've looked, the less true it seems.
It's true that Jack Davis is running as a Tea Party candidate. But he's not running a conservative campaign. He's running as a populist, emphasizing economic protectionism:
Republican groups have spent huge sums painting Davis as a right-winger, and they have succeeding in getting that message through to most conservatives. PPP's most recent poll shows that the Davis vote tilts only very slightly right. Davis has an overall favorability rating of 23%. Here's how it breaks down by ideology:
Very liberal 15%
Somewhat liberal 21%
Moderate 28%
Somewhat conservative 24%
Very conservative 20%
There's a bit of a rightward tilt here, but it's a modest one. Davis gets 8% of the Democratic vote, 16% of the Republican vote, and 17% of the independent vote. His favorability among Democrats and Republicans is the same, at 23% (24% among independents.)
Again, it seems likely that Davis hurts Corwin and helps Hochul. But the partisan effect of his candidacy is smaller than the spin suggests. If Hochul wins, it's because she's vastly more popular (+14 favorability) than Corwin (-18 favorability).
9 comments
I'm eager to find out what happens next.
- Nusholtz
May 24, 2011 at 5:06pm
My only fear about this race being a spoiler, is that the Republicans will learn something from it that I'd rather they be learning about this time next year or even a little later. Hopefully they'll remain somewhere between completely stupid (tanking the global economy with a default on US sovereign debt) and just short of that (revealing to voters their true program and sticking to it) long enough to implode in November '12. I don't trust near-death conversions in these folks.
- IowaBeauty
May 24, 2011 at 5:39pm
Well, hearing fraud boy himself, Ryan on the talk-shows seems to be sure that his Medicare voucher system is really popular if it is explained correctly... So I am not sure these people can see beyond their little bubbles.
- MikeB.
May 24, 2011 at 5:45pm
Corwin campaign has successfully sued to prevent a winner from being named and certified pending another court hearing.
- DC Spence
May 24, 2011 at 6:18pm
Let the politicians and opinion makers think the third party spoiler is why they lost. That means they'll continue to trumpet Ryan Care, and that will simply generate more disaffected Republican and Independent swing voters for Obama and company next fall. I'm feeling better about the next 4 years already.
- GSpinks
May 24, 2011 at 6:33pm
couple this with the fact that Davis ran in 2008 as the DEMOCRAT and only lost by a few points and it holds even less water. But then (according to Republicans) we all know if it had not been because of Perot Papa Bush would have won re-election. Might he be a spoiler, sure. But it depends on what the margin of victory is if Hochul wins. I would love if she cracks 50% which would send Republicans into a tailspin of illogic.
- blackton
May 24, 2011 at 7:12pm
blacton. I would love it too.
- Nusholtz
May 24, 2011 at 7:48pm
So, Iowa, let me understand you correctly: if Kathy Hochul wins you fear that the Republicans might become a little more sane? Indeed, Mike. Epistemic closure.
- liberalref
May 24, 2011 at 9:12pm
libref, there's no need to worry about sanity any time soon (at least not until the next general). The RNC is already attributing this to local causes, and as someone noted, the Catfood Kid is claiming that people just don't understand that he's offering them caviar. Interestingly, the GOP *dramatically* outspent the dems in that election.
- miceelf
May 24, 2011 at 11:45pm