JONATHAN CHAIT MAY 31, 2011
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If you're going to run against Paul Ryan, you might as well run against Paul Ryan:
Rob Zerban thinks he can knock off a Wisconsin giant next fall.
And Democrats on Capitol Hill agree that this 42-year-old businessman, a former Republican with limited experience in county politics, could be their best shot at defeating House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R) in more than a decade.
Democrats certainly believe they have an opportunity to nationalize the Wisconsin House race, driving resources and energy from across the country into a swing district Ryan has held relatively comfortably since 1998. And they believe that fallout from New York’s GOP debacle will help.
Ryan has always won handily, but he's never faced serious opposition before. His district has a Partisan Voting Index of Republican +2, making it just slightly more Republican than the country as a whole. George W. Bush won 53% of the vote there in 2004, and Barack Obama won 51% in 2008. Given the deep unpopularity of Wisconsin governor Scott Walker, not to mention that of Ryan's plan itself, it hardly seems inconceivable that a strong challenger could knock Ryan out of the House of Representatives.
6 comments
I'm not sure that would be such a great victory. Ryan is almost singlehandedly providing the rope the DNC is currently tossing over various tree branches around the country, getting ready for a fun filled gop hanging in '12. And if conservative conventional wisdom stays unchanged, a major defeat for the gop next year (thanks to, among other things, the Ryan plan) would result in Ryan and his cohorts coming up with something even more right wing batshit crazy. Because, after all, the only time the gop loses is when they aren't conservative ENOUGH. I'd much rather see the lower chamber flip back with the top-tier goopers remaining in place than the reverse. Better the devil you know.
- Tristan
May 31, 2011 at 3:43pm
I say good riddance. I think it will be a great test of the Republican party: will Ryan's own district toss him under the bus for wanting to slash Medicare? If he can be ousted from a district that he has pwned for over a decade, it portends good things.
- GSpinks
May 31, 2011 at 3:49pm
David Frum must be nervously wetting his pants. In anticipation that he might become relevant again.
- chaitless
May 31, 2011 at 3:52pm
I expect the voters to continuosly throw the party in power out until the economy improves. And I don't think they factor in their thinking a backwards look as to how we got here, particularly because that issue is so clouded with self interested explanations. Furthermore, Ryan is only offering tax cuts at the top to stimulate the economy while taking away much more in medicare, which makes what he is offering on his plate an unappetizing sell.
- Nusholtz
May 31, 2011 at 4:02pm
Gawd, this fraudulant pice of garbage deserves to lose more than anything. I mean he should then thank the voters. He can go off to Galt's Gulch where all the other producers live.
- MikeB.
May 31, 2011 at 6:04pm
How revolting: T wants to heighten the contradictions. GS and M have it right.
- liberalref
May 31, 2011 at 8:59pm