JONATHAN CHAIT JUNE 10, 2011
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In the wake of the New York special election, conservative pundits engaged in a frenzy of spin asserting that the House Republican budget was not to blame and that people actually liked it, or would like it once it was properly explained. The extent to which they actually believed this is unclear. In any case, the line of defense has quietly disappeared. Charles Krauthammer today argues that the Ryan budget has crippled the GOP's ability to attack Obama as a radical:
Last month, Democrats turned the race for the 26th Congressional District of New York into a referendum on Medicare, and more specifically on the Paul Ryan plan for reforming it. The Republicans lost the seat — after having held it for more than four decades. ...
Now, however, the Obama pitch is stronger: Leftist? On the contrary, I bestride the center like a colossus, protecting Medicare from Republican right-wing social engineering.
And The Hill reports that some House Republicans, feel burned by having voted for Ryan's budget. Unfortunately, they've decided the answer is not to move to the center, but to refuse to vote for a debt ceiling increase:
Some House Republicans who supported Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) budget are wary of voting to increase the nation’s debt ceiling, fearing a barrage of campaign ads in the 2012 election.
Republican officials say the dynamic of two tough votes so close to one another reminds them of when then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) scheduled floor votes on climate change and healthcare reform in 2009. A year later, Democrats lost control of the lower chamber.
One well-connected GOP insider said Ryan’s budget is “our version of cap-and-trade.”
The source, who requested anonymity, added that Republican “rank-and-file members are very, very concerned that this was the canary in the coalmine on Medicare and it’s going to affect all of the other difficult votes that leadership is going to ask them to make.”
It is kind of funny that Republicans consider literally anything-- including a public revolt against their ideological conservatism -- as evidence that they need to take a more hard line politically. In this case, the interpretation is especially daft. First of all, raising the debt ceiling may not be popular, but if they precipitate an economic crisis, the public will blame them. (The public will also punish Obama for a weak economy, but that may not help incumbent members of Congress.)
Second, a debt agreement with Obama is the House GOP's best chance to get past the Ryan budget. They can argue that the deficit problem has been solved, or partially solved, and we no longer need to end Medicare as we know it. It won't fully protect them, but it will do more to protect them than anything else they could do.
11 comments
"If they precipitate an economic crisis..." the public will only blame them if Obama is not complicit in that crisis. Currently, Obama can make a strong case that his is the voice of reason, rationality, moderation. I sure hope he MAKES that case, because his silence on this issue means whatever the Republicans say has greater impact.
- AllanL5
June 10, 2011 at 8:59am
The are fanatic ideologues, indistinguishable in their fanaticism to Islamists. Every failure of supply-side (so-called) economics, proves we need more of same. Public resistance to their fanaticism proves they need to be even more fanatical and intransigent. And every event of every kind, war, peace, prosperity, recession, surpluses, deficits, proves that we need even more tax cuts for the wealthy. We need to start treating these people publicly as insane buffoons. Addressing them as if they have anything serious to say about policy is like talking to flat-earthers and creationists as if they have a "theory" that ought to command our attention.
- roidubouloi
June 10, 2011 at 9:31am
Unless Obama plans to issue Treasury checks to pay the bills without issuing more debt (as I, probably a minority of one, believe is within the law), he had better start talking publicly now about the threat that the Republicans are posing to the economy by refusing to raise the debt ceiling and about how they are welshing on their own budget deal that plainly committed them to an increase in debt. Otherwise, when the crisis hits, he will bet the blame. He has to use the time available to frame the debate in the public mind. By the time the crisis hits, it is too late. I am confident based on past performance that Obama will do nothing of the kind. He either does not know how, or for reasons unknown to me, refuses to play the game of politics to win. He is far and away the least bad option at present, but an enormous disappointment, not for what he has failed to achieve, but for everything he has failed even to fight for. The victories he has won, he has allowed others to do the fighting and pay the price for his lack of leadership. Very sad.
- roidubouloi
June 10, 2011 at 9:36am
"They are fanatic ideologues, indistinguishable in their fanaticism from Islamists"
- roidubouloi
June 10, 2011 at 9:37am
I look at their conduct like a midieval doctor who, after learning that the leeches did not work, says, "Hmmm. We need more leeches."
- Nusholtz
June 10, 2011 at 10:36am
It sounds to me simply like the Republicans are finally at the point where they have to decide between catering to the extremists and catering to the moderates. If they vote to raise the debt ceiling they will have to endure a challenge from the right during the next primary. If they don't, the moderates will crucify them during the next general election for failing to govern America responsibly. I love it when people get what's coming to them! Roi, based on past experience, Obama likes to bide his time, so I would expect nothing more than a little manipulation from behind the scenes until the circus is in full swing. Then, if necessary, he'll come out with guns blazing and go for the kill. He did this repeatedly during the primary and general elections of '08; and I seem to recall it was always preceeded with hand-wringing and worry as people wondered why Obama wasn't doing anything sooner. This didn't work out so well when it came to the PPACA, but he made a pretty good showing of it anyway.
- GSpinks
June 10, 2011 at 10:46am
Which brings to mind the image of Obama as Popeye: "I've had all I can stand, I can't stands no more!"
- zardoz67
June 10, 2011 at 11:05am
I dunno, GS. I know he has the skills because he did use them to devastating effect in the campaign. But what he was willing and able to do for himself, he has seemed unwilling or unable to to for the party and its agenda (in the broad sense). Also, framing works best when you prepare the field for a while. Then when the event happens, people have these little boxes already in their heads in which to place the new information. And so, it goes right in. I think it is too late to frame the narrative once the event has occurred. Geithner should be on the road addressing every important business group in the country and telling them they had better start applying heavy pressure to Congress.
- roidubouloi
June 10, 2011 at 11:08am
The resident head left ideologue, indistinguishable from an Islamist, is in a garrulous mood today.
- liberalref
June 10, 2011 at 2:09pm
I'm not so sure the frame of reference matters that much when Obama lights it up. Was there any question that he fatally skewered RyanCare when he spoke at American University? (I think that's where he held it?) Then again, maybe his frame of reference is that whole Compromiser-in-Chief thing he has going; by being open to compromise, and refusing to say very many mean or harsh things, when he does decide to strike out, like with RyanCare, people take notice and listen to what he has to say. It's not every day Obama declares that Republicans are trying to throw the old and poor under the bus; that's us. So, the one day he does he captures the attention of the nation, instead of being written off as just another day of bad-mouthing the other guys.
- GSpinks
June 10, 2011 at 2:45pm
But he didn't wait, GS, before skewering Ryan. He wasted no time in imposing his frame on Ryan's plan. Then the "debate" was over, infuriating the Republicans.
- roidubouloi
June 10, 2011 at 10:01pm