JONATHAN CHAIT JUNE 14, 2011
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The biggest question of the Republican presidential campaign is: What will Paul Ryan do? Ryan has come to dominate the Republican Party's agenda and has personally become a totem -- a sort of mini-Reagan figure, frequently cited as credibility by others and never attacked. As John McCormack notes, Ryan was cited ten times in last night's debate.
I continue to think that the prospects of Ryan running are higher than most estimate, and that he would almost instantly attain front-runner status. In the meantime, he seems to almost dominate the current presidential candidates through his absence.
11 comments
I think Paul Ryan is afraid for his political life. True to GOP form, after having gained only our populist House of Commons in the 2010 elections, the Republicans took their "mandate" and passed Ryan's ideological wish list that - if cornered into admitting it - they knew had absolutely zero chance of becoming law. Now that the cat is out of the proverbial bag and the GOP voted en masse to starve the beast, Ryan may very well see the first and only serious challenge for his House seat from a Democrat...the logic being that if it worked so well in NY-26, why wouldn't it work in WI-1 against Ryan himself? I can see the DNC going full bore on him in 2012. The way I see it, Ryan has two choices: the first would be to double down on his Roadmap and at some point enter the presidential nomination fray; or he can play it safe and concentrate on winning his next Congressional election. He may very well choose the former, but I think his hesitation is born out of a desire to thin the heard a little bit and let the Newts, Cains and Pauls fizzle out. At that point, he'd be ripe to have the sorts of serious conversations with the American people he prefers having.
- Andy_Smith
June 14, 2011 at 11:05am
This IS the Scott-Walker Governor Wisconsin we're talking about, right? Where Republicans run on vague promises, then turn around and pass draconian policies that violate much of the spirit of their promises? Where the Democratic Party was asleep during the 2010 elections, but then rose up in protest February 2011? Where 12 Republican state representatives are up for recall? And where every House member is up for re-election every 2 years? I suspect the Democratic backlash against all this Republican Tea-Party demagoguery will be in full swing in 2012. I sure hope so, in any event. Running for President in 2012 will be the LEAST of Paul Ryan's worries, I suspect he won't even keep his seat.
- AllanL5
June 14, 2011 at 11:37am
If he has any political sense, he'll wait until Obama isn't lurking around somewhere waiting to pounce. This assume Obama hasn't already actually destroyed any real chance Ryan had of making a presidential bid with that speech. Everyone in the country knows who proposed eliminating Medicare; there's no way he can pull the swing voters and moderates unless the Democrats run a real lunatic. If there was a third party candidate drawing dem voters away from Obama, he has a chance.
- GSpinks
June 14, 2011 at 12:05pm
The real missing man, who may not be missing much longer, is Texas Governor Rick Perry. It’s my guess that he is the potential nominee the Obama camp fears most. The guy looks presidential, he’s never lost an election, and he has impeccable conservative credentials. If he gets into the race, he would probably blow away the rest of the Republican field overnight. John McLaughlin, head of The McLaughlin Group, recently predicted that Perry will become the GOP nominee and will be elected president. No one else on the show agreed with him, but I think it’s quite likely that Perry will at least be the nominee. He has little to lose and much to gain by throwing his hat in the ring, and he’s been making noises lately that he intends to do so.
- DAVIDDREIER@EARTHLINK.NET-old
June 14, 2011 at 12:09pm
Why is it that candidates who are introduced as the one their opponent is most afraid of are perennially the one that's actually the most laughable? Rick Perry does indeed have "impeccable conservative credentials," in that he laughs at science and has proposed secession rather than deal with the reality that there's a Federal government controlled by people he doesn't like. If he gets into the race (and I suspect he will), it will simply grow that much more muddled. In a year when the Republicans are insisting that Democrats should stop blaming Bush for the woes of the country, does anyone really think that they're going to nominate another Texas governor and Bush's actual successor to fix everything?
- janus
June 14, 2011 at 12:36pm
As a native Texan who has watched the Rick Perry debacle in real time over the last several years, I can assure you that Obama has nothing to fear from our Governor, who owes his continued success to the Red underbelly that votes a straight Republican ballot at every opportunity. Perry enjoys the accolades he receives here in Texas, but putting him front and center on the national stage will highlight what a mental midgit the man really is. He may "look presidential," but so did George Bush, and I think America is finished with the tough-talkin' Southern governor-as-president bit. In the non-existent Southern tradition of deference to the wishes of a lady, Haley Barbour conveniently hid behind his wife's best interests in deciding not to run, but he knows this much: vaulting onto the national scene means you no longer control the puppet strings of your own public persona; and Barbour is smart and shrewd where Perry is not. Be it our whacked out school board, our $28 billion budget deficit, the pilfering of our Emerging Technology Fund by persons close to Perry's campaigns, or the general rape of public education and the fabric of the social safety net, Perry makes Paul Ryan look both competent and spotless.
- Andy_Smith
June 14, 2011 at 12:42pm
I think that Paul Ryan probably will not run.
- liberalref
June 14, 2011 at 12:49pm
Andy, I certainly hope you're right about Perry not being a threat. By the way, I'm a former Texan myself (San Antonio). That state was always conservative, but it seems to have gotten much worse in recent years.
- DAVIDDREIER@EARTHLINK.NET-old
June 14, 2011 at 1:23pm
DaveyD, if Perry wins the nomination, I will donate money in your name to Obama ... the guy is a joke. The first time he gets on the national stage, he will instantly win over the Tea Party and all the macho republicans who like their leaders to talk tough and swagger around with guns in their hands, but I still have enough faith that republicans (not the republican party, but republican citizens) will not put up an idiot like him. Not that I am not wishing for it. He will win Texas by 50 points and the lose the nation by 20.
- NR409654
June 14, 2011 at 1:51pm
EDT, I hope you're also correct. I think the entire Republican lineup of both declared and potential candidates is a rogues gallery of frauds and idiots. I would like nothing more than to see the GOP suffer a catastrophic defeat in 2012. That's what it needs to move back toward the center and once again be a responsible party interested in governing. An improving economy plus the Medicare issue could make that happen. But if the economy in late 2012 is still limping along, or getting worse, a large portion of the dum-dum electorate will blame Obama and the Democrats and vote for whichever jackass the Republicans nominate. Have you ever thought about what a different country this would be if that lunatic Ralph Nader had stayed out of the 2000 presidential race?
- DAVIDDREIER@EARTHLINK.NET-old
June 14, 2011 at 2:30pm
NR, if Perry runs he'll squeak out a win in Texas but by nowhere near 50 points. He's not exactly popular here; even my conservative friends think he's an empty suit and a piss-poor, corrupt governor. Give the guy haircut and an enema, and there's nothing left. Not that Ryan has much more substance in reality, but at least he's conned the press into thinking he's a fiscal genius.
- krlong014
June 14, 2011 at 7:33pm