JONATHAN CHAIT JULY 26, 2011
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One of the oddities of the Obama-Boehner negotiation/showdown is that Obama has vastly more strategic latitude than Boehner. Obama can cut almost any deal he wants. He can probably persuade Democrats in Congress to go along with an outrageously bad deal. He could sign a deal that passes with mostly Republican votes.
Boehner can't do those things. He got his job as Speaker by default. He is the picture of the Washington insider and the apotheosis of the kind of Republican conservative activists loath and suspect of selling them out. His head has been on the chopping block from day one, and it won't take much to bring the ax down. Note this not-too-subtle threat from Steve King:
Aside from actually nailing down a plan that can pass the House, there’s also the problem of what kind of support a final deal gets — and whether it ends up receiving the backing of more members of the president’s party than of Boehner’s.
That could be “a real political conundrum,” said Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), a five-term lawmaker and one of the House’s most vocal conservative members.
“If he ends up with a deal with more Democratic votes than Republican votes, I think the speaker has a real problem,” King said.
The "problem" meaning not that the deal wouldn't pass, but that Boehner would lose his job.
This is the key fact to keep in mind when assessing Boehner's actions. He obviously wants to make a Grand Bargain. But he can't and he knows it. This constraint on his maneuvering ability gives him a huge advantage in the game of chicken against Obama. In other ways, though, it dramatically inhibits him. For instance, it's not even clear that his current plan, which is unacceptable to Democrats can pass the House:
One of the most influential conservatives in Congress says he's confident his own Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) will lack the votes to pass his plan to raise the debt limit in the House of Representatives. ...
"I am confident as of this morning that there are not 218 Republicans in support of the plan," Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) told reporters at a Tuesday morning press briefing.
It's possible that Jordan is bluffing, or that things could change. But I think it's at least an open question whether Boehner's bill can pass the House. I'd bet on yes, but I wouldn't bet too much.
Meanwhile, Democrats have a plan in place either way. Greg Sargent has some great reporting here:
Here’s the game plan, as seen by Senate Dem aides: The next move is to sit tight and wait for the House to vote on Boehner's proposal. The idea is that with mounting conservative opposition, it could very well be defeated. If the Boehner plan goes down in the House, that would represent a serious blow to Boehner’s leadership, weakening his hand in negotiations. ...
At that point, the Senate would then pass Harry Reid’s proposal, and then kick it over to the House, which would increase pressure on Boehner to try to get it passed, since he was unable to pass his own plan.
The second alternative possibility being gamed out by Senate Dems would take place if the Boehner plan does manage to sneak through the House. Aides say Dems would then vote it down in the Senate. ...
Senate Dems would vote to “amend” Boehner’s bill by replacing it completely with Reid’s proposal — which the Senate could then pass more quickly than they otherwise could.
After that, Reid’s proposal — having passed the Senate — would then get kicked back to the House. Having proved that Boehner’s plan can’t pass the Senate, Democrats would in effect be giving House Republicans a choice: Either pass the Reid proposal, or take the blame for default and the economic calamity that ensues.
What's Boehner's plan? I don't really know if he has a plan. I think he has a short-term survival strategy. Of course, from the perspective of the world economy, that makes him very, very dangerous.
14 comments
Perhaps he's doing this, but if not, I hope Obama is pointing to his own gray hair and asking Boehner if he's happier in his life as speaker than he was before. He's not long for the speaker's chair regardless (if the deal doesn't go through and the congressional repubs suffer as a result, he'll be blamed by these same doofuses who are now impeding him). And, if he's going to lose his speakership anyway, and it's not such a great loss, in terms of quality of life, then why not do something good for the country?
- miceelf
July 26, 2011 at 2:07pm
I think you mean to say he is the epitome of the kind of Republican conservative activists loath and suspect of selling them out, not the antithesis..
- alangaines
July 26, 2011 at 2:08pm
Why can't somebody offer Boehner a high paying job if he will round up enough Republican votes to pass the Reid proposal, then when Boehner loses his job as Speaker, he gets a better one in business. The way things are in the House, why would Boehner want to keep his job anyway. It's like a romance coming to an end, holding on providing only embarassment and eventually humiliation. It's time for Boehner to save himself, his family, and the country.
- rayward
July 26, 2011 at 2:09pm
If it comes down to the deadline and there's still no majority for Reid-McConnell, then the last option is a clean one-line bill that can be passed in an hour. Are the votes there for that? Would Boehner bring it to the floor if there were? Does it depend on the amount, or would they haggle over that too? Fun with crazy people....
- dsimon
July 26, 2011 at 2:22pm
I have a theory that Boner might come through. He is between a rock and a hard place, no question about it. My sense of this was bolstered when he ripped into Barack Obama after the president spoke. Listening to Boner speak, my wife Sheena was livid, but I said to her, honey, this might be calculated, and he may be talking tough so that he can point to his rhetoric, and then soften just enough and round up the necessary votes, if they are there to be had on the starboard side. The Grand Bargain is surely history. There can only be a petit bargain now, if even that. I say 70-30 that the deadline is averted, but if it is not, then I predict That BHO will invoke the 14th amendment and lift the debt ceiling unilaterally.
- liberalref
July 26, 2011 at 2:51pm
My wife is a trained psychologist and she can read people better than just about anybody I've known (vastly better than his humble engineer). She has an uncanny ability to size up people quite accurately within 2-3 minutes of just listening to them. Her mouth was agape, eyes wide open a few minutes after Boehner started to speak. She said calmly "he's lying". I agreed as anything he says can't be trusted (she knows how much I detest the GOP lately). She said she expected him to BS but his body language says he's lying and it was brazen, something she did not expect at all. She started to point out how his eyes avoided the camera, pointed out some other eye movement, some body position moves he was making. She was just staring at the screen in amazement that someone at that level in politics was so brazenly uncomfortable with what he was saying and admitted it via his body language. So Lib, you just may have hit the nail on the head. The sorriest part though is the drama will only get worse next time around. Much, much worse as I think the baggers are really emboldened.
- tmmats
July 26, 2011 at 3:03pm
antithesis used incorrectly in second paragraph
- jnordlander
July 26, 2011 at 3:19pm
How about try to round up 25 Republicans to support either the McConnell or Reid plan and get the Democrats to fall in line?
- sighthnd
July 26, 2011 at 3:22pm
Greg's reporting is a huge relief. Hope he's right about Senate Democrats' plan. It would reassure me that Democrats have some political brains (and kahunas).
- bmoodie
July 26, 2011 at 3:26pm
It's nice to the Republican outmanuevered, for once. For a while now I've had the idea that negotiations would go essentially nowhere until, say, Sunday night. Then Boehner would basically say 3 trillion in cuts, no taxes, take it or default. Because the Democrats are generally made up of grown ups, they bite the bullet and pass the bill. It is unfortunate things are so political, but the Republicans cannot be rewarded for their behavior. They must be left standing with Reid's 2.7 trillion or default. They must take the blame, not because it would be nice for Obama, but because it is their fault.
- jnordlander
July 26, 2011 at 3:32pm
Heaven help me, when I watched Boehner's sleazy performance last night I had the same thought libref did. We are such peas in a pod! I don't think he's long for the Speaker's office, whatever happens.
- W_Bombay
July 26, 2011 at 3:33pm
- With the world watching the odds favor Boehner dragging his feet if he lacks the numbers and the dead-enders are happy to run out the clock without being on the record. The Speaker never led, his party has been in virtual mutiny for months and he can't get a veto proof bill out of the house so this round must be seen as meaningless. Everyone has been played by The Smart Guy who will have the only solution to a stampeding bond market: "Give me the bill I want so I can stop this (and don't dare give me a chance to play with you till '13)". Both chambers lose as each day passes without giving him a bill that he will sign to avert the panic. After that begins, they're part of the mob.
- michaelg
July 26, 2011 at 3:46pm
I just wonder if Sargent's reporting is over-optimistic about getting something out of the Senate. Does Reid have the votes for something reasonable? He needs 7 Republicans assuming no Democratic defections. Collins, Snowe, Scott Brown, Graham, Grassley, Murkowski, Coburn (has shown signs of rationality), and McConnell makes 8, though I have little doubt McConnell would trash his own proposal and stand with Boehner if he thought it could make Democrats take the fall for the impasse. The other Republicans seem no more likely, so it seems to me like a tight vote.
- dsimon
July 26, 2011 at 4:10pm
- A senate loss isn't a disaster. They don't have time outs in congress. We're close to the window that favors something simple (Raise the damn limit- do it long term). Did dicking around favor the Anti-TARP crowd? No, I don't think Boehner has a follow up speech when Obama is asking for the checkbook to make payroll for Republican voters. Isn't the #1 rule of negotiating "Don't be the side that can only offer disaster as a solution."? Congress can create a crisis but they can't solve 'em. Not in a week anyway.
- michaelg
July 26, 2011 at 4:40pm