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Go Home Perry Makes Bachmann Obsolete

JONATHAN CHAIT AUGUST 23, 2011

Perry Makes Bachmann Obsolete

BY JONATHAN CHAIT

I was bullish on Michelle Bachmann's chances to make a splash in the race, and possibly even win, back when she was considered a Herman Cain-esque oddball candidate, because there's a large Republican constituency for a candidate frothing with rage against President Obama. But PPP's news Iowa poll shows Bachmann losing altitude rapidly. I won't say it's over for her, but Rick Perry seems to be offering a superior version of her product and it's hard to say what, outside a Perry implosion, could propel her ahead of him.

The poll also shows that Perry would stand to gain a huge amount from Bachmann dropping out of the race. In a three-way race, he would lead Mitt Romney by six points. In a two-way race, Perry's lead explodes to 18 points.

This suggests the possibility, though I don't really subscribe to it, that Perry's run of crazy statements was the expression of a conscious strategy -- first to box out Bachmann on his right flank, and then later take out Romney mano a mano. I suspect the reality is that Perry is just used to a millieu where you can say any crazy right-wing thing you want, up to and including threatening secession, without consequence. But maybe he's working his plan.

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15 comments

So, there's "crazy like a fox" and then there's "crazy like a Republican."

- Nusholtz

August 23, 2011 at 4:56pm

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What about Ron Paul? I haven't even seen him mentioned on TNR this year. Except for a comment before the straw poll saying his novelity factor had worn off, which was just before he tied Bachman for it. I know he's nuts n all (which one of them isn't?) but shouldn't you at least register his existence and potential to cause problems for the other candidates?

- IggyPop

August 23, 2011 at 5:40pm

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My guess is, the thinking runs: Proposition A: Romney is an attractive candidate for the establishment as he can win a sizeable section of independents by pointing to successful experience in government but the pandering is too obvious and the health care line on the CV is toxic for the base. Proposition B: Bachman is great at stirring up the yowling masses but the lunatic dimension will cripple her and there is still the GOP tension about women in leadership positions. Resolution of A and B: Perry, a guy, can square the circle by feeding red meat to the base while simultaneously spreading the TX legend of economic resilience on his watch as governor. This opens up the chance to sketch out an economic agenda that isn't loaded down with Ryanite ideological sandbags (even though it's broadly the same recipe). Perry is Romney without the health care ghost, Bachmann without the mad look in the eyes, Ryan without being Ryan. He could give Obama a run for his money, certainly.

- ironyroad

August 23, 2011 at 6:11pm

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Perry is changing the game, but we'll see what happens when he actually has to sit down and talk to the press and engage in some of the debates. Hype can deflate quickly.

- Pnaut

August 23, 2011 at 6:37pm

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See the front page story in the NY Times Sunday, about the web of corruption Perry has spun in Texas? I think more exposure of that sort of thing, plus more impulsive, inadequately self-censored outbursts, may take the shine off before long. Then there's the eerie resemblance of his speech to that of a certain recent president from Texas...(or, as a certain wag commenting on Perry's abstinence sex ed video on Youtube put it, "Did GW clone this guy from scrapings he took from his butt crack?"). OK, not that's not up to the high tone of TNR commentary, I know....sorry....

- Haole45

August 23, 2011 at 7:07pm

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I think Perry looks unbeatable in GOP race now. If he gets Iowa. Romney wins N.H. Then Perry wins South Carolina. Perry has votes that Romney doesn't. When Cain, Santorum, et al start fading, there votes will go to Perry.

- MikeB.

August 23, 2011 at 7:31pm

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Not really arguing that Perry doesn't have what it takes to win the Republican nomination, by the way, given the state of that party. More that his weaknesses and the be bad associations which spring from other aspects of his speech habits and persona will seriously dimish his appeal in the general (i.e., diminish his appeal to the less fanatical Republicans - there's a few, guys like John Huntsman, for instance - and among the all-important independents).

- Haole45

August 23, 2011 at 8:19pm

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Perry could probably engineer an early Bachmann exit by promising to make her his running mate.

- AaronW

August 23, 2011 at 9:28pm

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The best thing Perry has going for him? His looks. He looks like a movie president. Romney does too, I suppose, but Mitt's got a little too much of that plastic, Max Headroom quality about him.

- AaronW

August 23, 2011 at 9:34pm

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Hmm, or maybe HE JUST REALLY IS THAT WAY!

- RHSerlin

August 23, 2011 at 9:47pm

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Won't a Bachmann on the ticket trigger the same "hm, let's think about this" voice in voters' heads that a Palin on the ticket did in '08? She's a fruitcake too close to the Oval Office.

- ironyroad

August 23, 2011 at 10:39pm

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Though about what AaronW suggests - a Perry-Bachmann ticket. It would be wildly popular with about, oh - what do you think? - 30% of the elecorate? But unemployment would have to be considerably worse than it is even today for such a ticket to have a chance, I do believe. It would sure be the most ideologically pure, and extreme, ticket since Marx and Engels, making no concession to moderation whatsoever.

- Haole45

August 23, 2011 at 10:45pm

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bachmann plays John the Babtist to Perry's Christ. Pass the popcorn it is going to be some show.

- paskunac

August 24, 2011 at 6:18am

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irony - Palin triggered that voice in voters' heads, but that's not the question. The question is, what will Perry and his advisors think? Given that McCain and his team fooled themselves into thinking Palin wasn't a terrible decision, what sense of foresight do you think Perry and his team possess that would keep them saying (in a proper Texan drawl), "She's great! Just gotta get her on the team and we can ride this puppy all the way to the White House!"

- janus

August 24, 2011 at 8:14am

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If the economy is bad enough, most anybody can beat BHO. And most signs are that the economy will be bad-- maybe terrible.

- drofnats1

August 24, 2011 at 9:46am

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