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Go Home How Rick Perry Won the Debate

JONATHAN CHAIT SEPTEMBER 7, 2011

How Rick Perry Won the Debate

BY JONATHAN CHAIT

The most intellectually interesting portion of tonight's Republican presidential debate occurred in its opening moments, when Rick Perry and Mitt Romney sparred over their states’ record of job creation. Perry cited his states record of creating jobs. Romney replied that his state inherited a worse situation, and wound up with a lower level of unemployment, while of course ignoring that Perry has governed during a recession. Perry responded that Romney created jobs at a lower rate than Michael Dukakis.

The whole exchange seemed to demonstrate conclusively that the method of evaluating a governor’s record by its job creation, by any measure, borders on useless. The effect of state policy, compared to the broader environment or other factors beyond a governor’s control, is simply too miniscule. Of course, this realization kicks the slats out from beneath Perry’s entire general election economic message.

Yet Perry, stylistically, ruled the roost. The media seems to consider Romney the winner. Pardon the condescension, but they’re not thinking like Republican base voters. Romney approaches every question as if he is in an actual debate, trying to provide the most intellectually compelling answer available, within the bounds of political expediency. Perry treats questions as interruptions. What scientists do you trust on climate change? I don’t want to risk the economy. Are you taking a radical position on social security?  We can have reasons or we can have results. His total liberation from the constraints of reason give Perry a chance to represent the Republican id in a way Romney simply cannot match.

In this way Perry eerily apes the style of George W. Bush, who was also mocked for his intellectually vapid debating style, but who succeeded in rallying Republicans behind him. I don’t think it’s a coincidence. I suspect the Bush-Perry debating style broadcasts a subliminal message of strong leadership. Romney feels compelled to bind himself to the parameters of the question before him. Perry ignores them. It is, in a sense, an alpha male move. I am not going to lower myself to your premise about scientists. I am going to declare my principles.

In my view, Perry established his alpha male style, and that impression will matter more than any position or statement he’s made.

Update: I removed the photo above, which I thought was a real photograph, but turns out to be photoshopped.

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40 comments

My analysis: That debate made me sad. +1 to Gingrich for being the first and, I think, the only candidate to say "socialism" during the debate.

- Konstantin

September 7, 2011 at 11:21pm

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Once upon a time, I thought more debates would help the people decide who the best candidate was. This was around 2007-2008. Today I earnestly believe that there is no such thing as "a conversation" that you start with the American people. What the F does that mean, anyway? You're not going to get more than 10% of Americans talking about anything more substantive than the Casey Anthony trial. We'll be lucky if even 10% watch Obama tomorrow. In some ways, this type of political debate--especially when it involves a party where half the candidates make statements that can easily be shown to be false--is actually pernicious. It focuses the political class (the 3-5% of people who watch this dreck) on what these politicians say. And what these politicians say moves closer to usurping what objective reality--and real Americans, like the 1 in 7 in poverty who were ignored by the candidates or the working poor who apparently aren't suffering as badly as the middle class--says is actually happening and is actually important.

- chaitless

September 7, 2011 at 11:40pm

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It seems like the alpha male strategy is the MO of the entire party. It is working. Seems like Romney, Obama, and you (?) need to revisit Drew Westen's analysis ... from wp ... when Republican test subjects were shown self-contradictory quotes by Bush and when Democratic test subjects were shown self-contradictory quotes by Kerry, both groups tended to explain away the apparent contradictions in a manner biased to favor their candidate of choice. Similarly, areas of the brain responsible for reasoning (presumably the prefrontal cortex) did not respond during these conclusions while areas of the brain controlling emotions (presumably the amygdala and/or cingulate gyrus) showed increased activity as compared to the subject's responses to politically neutral statements associated with politically neutral people (such as Tom Hanks).

- keepin_on

September 7, 2011 at 11:45pm

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Can we hand out remote electro-encephalogram headsets at the next debate in exchange for popcorn and just nip this in the bud once and for all?

- keepin_on

September 7, 2011 at 11:49pm

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+1 Perry -1 Romney -1 all of us if Chait is truly leaving TNR.

- Jonas

September 8, 2011 at 12:00am

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This was the first GOP debate I have ever watched. And, like Chait, I tried to watch it from the perspective of the GOP fractious factional base. It will be interesting to see how Perry handles the next four debates. Interesting how he got some good tips from Gingrich and Romney... Perry is knocking out Santorum, and trying to do same to Bachmann and Paul because the path to the nomination is so bizarre with the GOP fractious factions. He takes punches from all sides with grace, "pinata at a party" was most apt. It would be more interesting if Gingrich could stay in the mix. The way the media frames these debates is pathetic. Always forces it down to a two-person horse race as quickly as possible. I just do not see how this GOP nominates a former governor from Massachusetts who is rich.

- K2K

September 8, 2011 at 1:07am

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K2K, agreed -- but going a bit deeper, is it his former governorship of MA or his CV or his money? Isn't the real problem that he is always trying to be something that he isn't?

- ironyroad

September 8, 2011 at 1:32am

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what is this talk about Chait leaving TNR?

- kras

September 8, 2011 at 3:10am

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Obviously, Ron Paul won the debate.

- Robert Powell

September 8, 2011 at 6:00am

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Perry's avoidance style only works if the listeners don't care about the answers, which is true of the Republican base. I would expect that style to fail among independents who, I expect, are independents because they put a high value on those answers in deciding for whom they will vote. krasumssen. Yes, what is this about? Or, as Perry would answer, " I am not going to distract everyone with an answer to that question."

- Nusholtz

September 8, 2011 at 7:59am

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CHAIT IS LEAVING TNR??????????

- Tristan

September 8, 2011 at 8:32am

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I hear that Chait was born in Canada. Do you see how these things get started?

- aboufade

September 8, 2011 at 9:06am

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@ krasmussen/tristan: You haven't been paying attention: http://www.tnr.com/article/94634/tnr-hires-tim-noah http://www.politico.com/blogs/onmedia/0911/Jonathan_Chait_to_New_York_Timothy_Noah_to_New_Republic.html

- tmmats

September 8, 2011 at 9:10am

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This is incredibly depressing. Jon leaving, I mean. Not the prospect of our next president being another uberconservative, anti-environmentalist, feed-the-poor-to-the-rich evangelical from Texas with the morals of a goat and intelligence of celery. Thank you tmmats. Sigh.

- Tristan

September 8, 2011 at 9:17am

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I certainly hope he continues to blog regularly.

- kluhman

September 8, 2011 at 9:33am

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I recently subscribed because of him. This sucks

- bundylu

September 8, 2011 at 9:50am

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K2K, as I wrote on another thread, you are ignoring the fact that in many states Independents can vote in the Republican primary (and since Obama is running unopposed have reason to). If Romney wins in blue states and Perry in red, the rap against Perry will be that he can't win the general if he can't carry any blue states. I am not saying Romney will win, just that he has a path to winning

- blackton

September 8, 2011 at 10:45am

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Jonathan -- I have valued your writing on TNR. Good luck at New York magazine. I plan to keep reading you there.

- aboufade

September 8, 2011 at 11:07am

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blackton: agree that Romney has a path to winning the nomination, but Perry's campaign manager is Jay Carney of NH. What happens if Perry wins the Iowa caucus and places 2 or 3 in NH and then handily wins in South Carolina? and Florida? There are currently a lot more purple swing states that Obama needs but Perry can win (especially if he has Mitch Daniels for VP - Perry does not need Rubio): VA, NC, Indiana, even Michigan and Ohio which now have GOP governors. If Tammy Baldwin is the Dem for Kohl's Senate seat in Wisconsin, even Wisconsin could be in play in the general) irony on Mitt: "...his former governorship of MA or his CV or his money? Isn't the real problem that he is always trying to be something that he isn't?" All of the above, plus all he has done for five years is run for the presidency. Why not take a timeout to work at a think tank (Peterson on the debt?), or work in venture capital & start a new business? Mostly, Romney never really seems really comfortable in his own skin - he tries too hard to be liked. He was better at last night's debate, but still stiff one-on-one. As a side note, I am completely puzzled by Ron Paul's cult. I can understand the appeal of his ideas, but he really comes across as a cranky spluttering ... And, I tend to agree with Mark Halperin's post-debate grading - it was linked at RCP this morning. I hope Huntsman survives long enough for the next four debates because he does have something to offer, and finally showed it last night.

- K2K

September 8, 2011 at 11:19am

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Yes, it's sad that Chait is leaving. He always has interesting ideas to share. Regarding the debate: even Republican voters are going to be concerned about Perry's Social Security stance. "A monstrous lie" is extreme. I haven't seen an argument that says Perry can win while maintaining his "provocative" rhetoric. As far as style, I thought Perry was halting and unpresidential at times. Perry will have to get much better, or he will get torched in a general election debate. Romney, on the other hand, looked like he would easily hold his own against Obama.

- polcereal

September 8, 2011 at 11:59am

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If he debates for the general. Wouldn't be surprised if he came out swinging and said he's rather talk directly to the people (whatever the fuck that means) rather than debate Obama. He ducked debating Bill White in his last gubernatorial. Someone please reassure me that this cannot happen in the general!!

- NR409654

September 8, 2011 at 12:15pm

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Can we have one more Life in Ohio post? Please?

- ReganaD

September 8, 2011 at 1:17pm

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NR, I think Americans regard the presidential debates as very much "our" thing. It's the one quasi-unmediated forum where people can look at the candidates in action in a situation where there's some kind of limit to the bs'ing. A candidate refusing to debate would be shooting himself in the head, electorally.

- ironyroad

September 8, 2011 at 1:19pm

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While I support the Life in Ohio motion, I would think it fitting if JC's final post at TNR had a Stephen Moore theme.

- Jonas

September 8, 2011 at 2:12pm

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Finally, damn. It took forever to get my subscription renewed. No people, I did not defect to Libya. And earlier this week I read at The Dish that Jonathan is leaving TNR for New York magazine. And this happened while I was unable to log on.

- liberalref

September 8, 2011 at 2:13pm

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my vote is really for Pat Condell, who posted his view of American politics yesterday: http://www.youtube.com/user/patcondell#p/a/u/0/0jBRY_Aki9s and this is how Perry will handle SocSec: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3851bhySuNU&feature=player_embedded Senator Ron Johnson, R, WI, during his successful campaign against Russ Feingold, actually using the words "Ponzi scheme" "...politicians from both parties raided the Social Security Trust Fund of trillions and left seniors an IOU. They spent the money, it's gone. ..." so very true - the Clinton surpluses were entirely from transferring the SocSec surpluses out of their lockbox and into general revenue.

- K2K

September 8, 2011 at 2:17pm

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NR: as I recall, the general election debates (number & format) are the product of intense negotiations between the two parties & their nominees. No longer any pretense in America at having an open discourse like Sarkozy had with Royal for 2-1/2 hours in 2007: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4671674330407207456#

- K2K

September 8, 2011 at 2:23pm

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not my fault the TNR font turned red. signing off.

- K2K

September 8, 2011 at 2:24pm

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K2k is a commie!

- Nusholtz

September 8, 2011 at 2:33pm

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Well I suppose we must have an official announcement and all, but nonetheless, Jon has been one of the real pleasures these past years. Also, one of the voices of sanity. Thank you for all your contributions. And yes, please, one more Life in Ohio. Please.

- riley

September 8, 2011 at 2:48pm

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Welcome back, Libref. You had me worried.

- Tristan

September 8, 2011 at 2:52pm

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Good to see you again, Tris.

- liberalref

September 8, 2011 at 3:02pm

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Lib, I thought Roi had had you bumped off for excessive needling :-). Welcome back!

- NR409654

September 8, 2011 at 3:12pm

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Chait leaving and TNR already awash in red ink.

- koppgeo

September 8, 2011 at 3:39pm

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Thanks for those two links, K2K. Though I disagreed with Condell's brief take on Obama and European social programs, his main focus on religion and American democracy was humorously, painfully on target. The more significant link, of course, was Johnson's apparently effective ad defending his description of social security as a ponzi scheme. If Perry wins the nomination, and quite possibly even during the nomination contest, I don't doubt that we'll see something quite like that from his campaign.

- Thunderroad

September 8, 2011 at 3:42pm

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"Chait leaving and TNR already awash in red ink." LOL!

- Thunderroad

September 8, 2011 at 3:43pm

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The "alpha male style" thing - Yes, that's it! Reason is for wusses, & Romney is, compared to Perry, a wuss. I think Mr. Cohn has nailed it.

- Haole45

September 8, 2011 at 7:13pm

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Oh, jeez - got my Jonathan's mixed up again. Sorry. I Mr. Chait has nailed it. (And I'm not even hammered yet...buy cocktail hour will be here soon.)

- Haole45

September 8, 2011 at 7:16pm

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Thank you, NR, good to see you, as well.

- liberalref

September 8, 2011 at 7:37pm

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I thought Jon Stewart really nailed the Perry "alpha male" concept last night :) Nusholtz: I have no idea why you are joking that I am a "Commie". My economics do tend to be populist - wish Obama had Robert Kuttner as a key advisor. Yes, I am secular, but respect those who have faith, regardless of which faith. I think I might be a Druid descended from David, King of the Jews. still, fun to be called a Communist when so many at TNR call me a Republican. Y'all should really consider me the model of an independent thinker who no longer blindly votes straight party, and who is really sad what both parties have descended to. If anyone actually watched that Sarkozy-Royal debate from 2007, when I originally saw it at the time, with English sub-titles - I decided that Sarkozy won when he said he opposed Turkey admission into the EU. I used to have a close friend whose family was French, and they had a French news cable channel in their big New Jersey home. The French really take news seriously - no sound bites.

- K2K

September 9, 2011 at 1:39pm

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