The New Republic

"On the other hand, if conditions are bad enough -- say, persistently high unemployment -- even Palin could win." C'mon Jon, you gotta do better than that for analysis -- if I wanted drive-by musings on this-'n-that I would just read Marc Ambinder. For all of those who gloat or worry about how Sarah Palin is going to secure the Republican nomination and win the White House in 2012, I need to hear from them how she is prepared to maintain or create an image as a serious politician, raise sufficient money for a long contest and keep her nose to the grindstone as her opponents line up in the shooting gallery of negative attacks that her career to date would present to them. Unless I hear some evidence that she is taking steps to change the game that she has heretofore played, I would not lose much sleep over such worries.

- wildboy

February 9, 2010 at 12:16pm

wildboy is right. There will be enough people walking around with signs saying "Stop the Palinsanity." to dwarf her crowds. She doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell of winning the nomination. She is a ditz who will get chewed up in any debates. The Republicans are also not as stupid as people think. They nominated McCain, the only man who had a shot at winning because they wanted to win. Besides, a lot of the religious base is sexist, VP for a woman is fine (you know, standing by the man) but not President.

- blackton

February 9, 2010 at 1:18pm

Didn't the German establishment think Hitler was a joke... until it was too late?

- zardoz67

February 9, 2010 at 3:59pm

- Damn if that doesn't sound like faint praise to me. And it did come from a "senior adviser to one of Sarah Palin's potential rivals.". But if I had a hint my candidate may face her, I'd want to raise expectations, place her in the real world where she'd be vetted seriously (and need more than three policy notes written on her palm). Any senior adviser knows every campaign has weeded out the likes of the Pat (R. and B.) because the GOP has ways of dealing with threats (McCain, '00) they don't want. No, I don't doubt she is crazy enough to avoid debates or even form the Rogue Party if her war chest could match her inflated sense of self. So while no one on the left should underestimate her, consider the boasting from the unnamed adviser to be a warning to the GOP. She's their problem first, until she proves all the excitement outweighs the measurable risk the McCain campaign will testify to. Or does anyone think she's the 1st choice of the RNC? Yes, the perfect storm could cause Democrats to worry. But imagine you're a level headed Republican or at least someone who knows what happens after someone declares. A worse case scenario would include her sucking up all the oxygen, shaming the party and creating a ruckus even if she stayed in. See, I've also heard there's terror among GOP advisers who know they have a monster on their hands. No one is brave enough to stop feeding her and they're sure as her appetite increases, the options won't be pretty. For now, I'm glad Sarah is their feral pet. -

- michael

February 9, 2010 at 4:40pm

Actually, I believe it would be a historic disaster. 100 years from now it will be a historical disaster.

- ratnerstar

February 9, 2010 at 10:55pm

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Godwin's law

- michael

February 10, 2010 at 8:53am

Godwin, indeed. And no, "the German establishment" did not think Hitler was a joke until it was too late. That there was no single, reality-based establishment in Germany was a problem that Hitler exploited. But the various fragments of the German establishment took Hitler very seriously indeed. You have to remember that Mussolini came to power in, what, 1922, and so fascism was no joke in Western Europe. You can fault the German establishment for erroneously believing that it could satisfy or even tame Hitler, but not for treating him or his movement as a "joke."

- rhubarbs

February 10, 2010 at 10:28am

- Notice the leap? "...Palin is less likely than any of the plausible Republican alternatives to beat President Obama in 2012. On the other hand, if conditions are bad enough -- say, persistently high unemployment..". Wait, why is Palin a more plausible Republican alternative if conditions worsened? Once can argue Obama would be weaker but I doubt Palin gains over her rivals in the GOP. In '68 and '80, Republicans chose a known quantity. If the GOP did smell victory in '12 they wouldn't squander their chance on Sarah and Todd. Jeeze, would they really send her out to battle for a year if Obama looked weak or would they chose someone else? Face it, if leadership thought she was their ticket she would be in school and not confirming everyone's worst suspicions of her. -

- michael

February 10, 2010 at 11:56am