JONATHAN COHN MARCH 7, 2012
-
Read Later
READ LATERAvailable only to subscribers. SUBSCRIBE TODAY
-
Listen
ARTICLE AUDIO
- Font Size
Are the Republican presidential candidates alienating Latino voters with their strident talk on immigration -- and, in the process, seriously jeopardizing their chances at winning the White House? It would appear so.
In a new poll of Latino voters from Fox News, President Obama beat Mitt Romney in a hypothetical matchup by 70 percent to 14 percent. Yes, that's a 56 point gap. The other GOP contenders fared about the same. None did better than Romney's showing.
No, Republicans don't usually do well among Latinos. But they don't usually do this bad. John McCain got more than twice this much support in 2008, as the above graph, from Steve Benen, shows.
Until relatively recently, many pundits were speculating that Obama might struggle with Latinos, because he hasn't delivered on immigration reform. In fact, Obama got a question about precisely that problem at Tuesday's White House press conference. But, according to the Fox poll, 73 percent of Latinos approve of the job Obama is doing. That's much higher than the national average.
And as for the Republicans, is it any wonder Latinos are losing interest? Benen, posting from his new home at Maddowblog, doesn't think so:
Romney is an inflexible opponent of the DREAM Act; he's palling around with Pete Wilson and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach; he endorses a "self-deportation" agenda; he's critical of bilingualism; and his casual dismissals of "amnesty" and "illegals" are a staple of his campaign rhetoric.
A lot can happen between now and November. Most likely Romney, or whoever becomes the Republican nominee, will pick up at least some Latino support once these debilitating primaries are over. And if the nominee chooses at Latino running mate, that might be good for a few more points, enough perhaps to swing a key state or two.
But the Republican nominee will have a lot of ground to make up. Conventional wisdom is that a Republican must capture about 40 percent of the Latino vote to win a national election. The last Republican to do that was George W. Bush, who went out of his way to court Latinos, openly supported immigration reform, and -- as a result -- wouldn't stand a chance of winning the nomination in today's GOP.
follow me on twitter @CitizenCohn
Update: Greg Sargent sifts through another new poll, by Univision, and points out that Latino voters also tend to agree with Obama on policy. It's not all good news for the president: They're not as enthusiastic about him as they used to be. But overall he seems to be in much better shape than Romney or any other Republican candidate.
10 comments
Romney forced to fight tooth and nail just to try and hold onto Texas. This just leeps getting better.
- Tristan
March 7, 2012 at 12:16pm
As Romney would put it, "I don't really know anyone that owns a Mexican restaurant, although some of my friends own entire chains."
- Nusholtz
March 7, 2012 at 12:27pm
Well at least we have an example of one job the Hispanic population won't take from hard working, blue color, red blooded, loving white Americans....voting for Romney.
- singlspeed
March 7, 2012 at 1:22pm
Why those ungrateful Hispanics! Republicans bend over backwards to help them, every 4 years, just before the election. How rude of them to pay attention that Republicans bend over backwards in between times to remove their rights, kick them out of their states, kick them out of their schools, give police the right to stop them "driving while Hispanic". I'm just glad they really are paying attention. Frankly, if I was Hispanic and a Fox News representative called ME to get my opinion, I'd hang up before they could trace the call.
- AllanL5
March 7, 2012 at 1:55pm
Nusholtz, LOL.
- wildboy
March 7, 2012 at 2:08pm
The last link, the one regarding the CW that the GOP needs 40% of the hispanic vote to win the Presidency, is broken. It just goes to the Rubio article again. I'd love to see the intended referent.
- Curran1
March 7, 2012 at 3:24pm
Glad for the good news. Not sure how this fits with national polling showing a more or less dead heat (as of a couple of weeks ago, anyway). I wonder if the numbers vary signficantly if you factor in voter registration and likelihood to make it to the polls on November 2nd?
- GSpinks
March 7, 2012 at 5:39pm
I hope this keeps up, and that Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Florida, California, New Mexico and Nevada swing to the Democrats. Make Ricardo Sanchez a Democratic candidate for Senator, then you have a winning ticket for Texas! The cities there are Democratic enclaves (Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, San Antonio and now even Houston) and wind energy is a big winner (as well as other renewables, and we know how well oil and gas are doing under Obama). If Hispanics come out big in Texas, this could guarantee a Texas Democratic majority in national elections for a long time coming (but not in gerrymandered House districts, of course). Let's get Texas Democrats!!!!
- RedState
March 8, 2012 at 9:58am
Redstate, Colorado should swing towards the Dems this year. It's been trending that way the last two election cycles and the election of Hickenlooper as Gov helped to swing the state more blue than red. Can't say I have any hopes of Louisiana swinging purple. Ever. Outside of New Orleans, the state is as red is red gets.
- singlspeed
March 8, 2012 at 10:49am
Yeah, I wonder why. And it's the one part of the U.S. where speaking French is not associated with wussiness.
- ironyroad
March 8, 2012 at 6:19pm