Jonathan Cohn

EXIT POLLS: A Wave, But Not a Tsunami?


So CNN just released the first bit of actually revealing national exit poll data: President Obama's job approval rating is 45 percent positive, 54 percent negative (looks like no one is ambivalent).

Comparing this to some of the final polls, the final ABC/Washington Post poll, which gave Republicans only a 4-point advantage in House voting, had the Obama ratio at 46/52. The final Gallup "low-turnout" estimate, which gave Republicans a gigantic 15-point margin, had the Obama ratio at 40/56.  So based on this one data point, it looks like a wave, but maybe not a tsunami.

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