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Go Home What Are the Birthers Thinking?

JONATHAN COHN FEBRUARY 15, 2011

What Are the Birthers Thinking?

Today’s big news...no, that’s not quite right. Today’s hot gossip? Oh, I don’t know: birthers are back in the news, because of a new poll showing that they’re everywhere, or at least that they appear to be an actual majority of Republicans.

This has been going on for years now, and I certainly don’t read far into every birther story, but unless I’ve missed something I still think that this is actually an underreported and underexplored thing. Basically, I know how Republicans respond to the question ”Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?” But I have no idea what those who answer “no” or “don’t know” are thinking. It seems to me there are a number of possibilities, with some really alarming and others much less so. And I would love to see either pollsters or reporters help us understand exactly what’s going on, how many people fit in the following categories:

1. Some birthers may go whole hog. Perhaps they believe that there was a massive, 50 year long conspiracy to develop a front for a true socialist/communist/whatever takeover of the government. The birth story matters because it reveals that he’s just a guy who reads a teleprompter, while other nefarious characters are really governing -- or some other wild story.

2. Not quite whole hog. Some may be vaguely aware that there’s some sort of supposed conspiracy, but not really know much about it. They may believe that he was born abroad, that he’s therefore not qualified for the presidency, and that the conspiracy is about allowing him to run when otherwise the Dems would have put up someone else. This (probably?) puts Obama, and not other hidden conspirators, at the center of the operation. Note that this is a much milder accusation, at least possibly; it implies that Obama is overly ambitious (uppity?), but that’s about it.

3. It’s possible, and in my opinion likely, that some are even more vaguely aware of the birther thing at all, and mistakenly believe that the guy with the funny name was born abroad -- but don’t know that it’s a controversial accusation with serious consequences were it true. In other words, they think it’s just a curious fact about him, just like people thought that Bill Clinton was born rich or that Gerald Ford was clumsy. For them, there’s no conspiracy (because they’re not even aware anyone denies it) and no constitutional importance. Do most people know that one must be a native-born American to be president? I have no idea! Based on traditional polling that shows people don’t know the Bill of Rights, or other fundamental Constitutional facts, I pretty much doubt it. I have no idea of how many people fit into this category, but I’d be shocked if it was below 5%, and I wouldn’t be surprised if half or more supposed birthers are in this essentially oblivious but innocent category.

4. Gotta include the most innocent of all: it’s Hawaii. This one would be very small, but again it may include at least some people: they know he was born in Hawaii but believe that means he was not born in the United States. Again, in combination with #3, there’s no conspiracy, no Constitutional issue, just some scattered misinformation.

5. It’s a gag -- at the elite level presumably no one really believes this stuff, and somehow that’s filtered down to the rank-and-file level. They’ve learned how to answer the question, but they don’t “really” believe any of it.

Those are the main possibilities that I can think of, but I may be missing some, and certainly the first two have various different permutations and implications.

Basically, every interpretation I’ve seen of crazed polling numbers implies that all birthers must fall into the top two categories, except for elites who fit comfortably into the fifth category. That could be true. On the other hand, maybe not. Again, unless I’ve missed something, we really have no idea. I have seen some interviews with Tea Party activists who believe the crazier, most conspiratorial versions of this, but that’s hardly a random sample (they seem to be the result of reporters who show up at Tea Party rallies and then seek out the nuttier-looking types). Hey, reporters! If we’re going to talk about this all the time, let’s get a much better sense of what’s in the heads of those who give birther answers to polling questions. 

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24 comments

I tend to think they are bat-shit-crazy. Sorry for being flippant. Seriously I too am baffled by this specter - albeit a right-wing one. Loosely, perhaps, this is yet another right-wing narrative about non right-wingers - that is - WE are Not American because WE fail to be bat-shit-crazy right-wingers. As a side note, Khrushchev thought - properly so - his legacy was party members were once again equals - meaning disagreement didn't mean you were a traitor and deserved execution. Right-wingers remain less than Comrade Khrushchev. Must be proud.

- Bukharin

February 15, 2011 at 8:01pm

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I guess I shouldn't have been, but I was surprised to find a number of ladies I knew were birthers. They seem to fit into the category #2 - basically Obama had no birth certificate, which proves he was not born in the US and that he was being given a pass because he was black and popular with the liberals. Any 'fact' that contradicted this pretty vague conspiracy was could be discounted because it came from the liberal media.

- polijunky

February 15, 2011 at 8:31pm

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I have heard some "proofs" that go like this: 1. His wife said she was only proud of America when Obama was elected. This shows he is not American, because all American families are always proud of America. 2. Obama is a socialist. Americans can not be socialists (sorry Eugene V. Debbs) so ergo he is not an American. 3. Obama is a Muslim and Muslims can not be Americans (sorry about that Muslim-Americans). I have to come to the conclusion, that most birthers like TP'ers in general have a grammer school notion of American history and are unaware about the most basic rudimentary levels of current events around the world. Yet they are really really loud!

- MikeB.

February 15, 2011 at 9:18pm

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No. 3. And I'd add No. 6: His predecessor, who represented everything "good" and "right" and "true" in America, was a collossal failure as President, and rather than come to grips with that mistake, they make wild accusations about his successor. Nobody likes to admit mistakes, progressives too. It's just that their "man" was so incompetent that it has made some conservatives go insane. It's like believing in Jesus (or Abraham, or whatever) only to discover it's a myth. But with time we are making progress. How many W decals do you see on SUVs these days?

- rayward

February 15, 2011 at 9:24pm

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The other day, when asked if the rumor mongering was appropriate, a member of the Republican leadership said, "I take the President at his ward, because he has an illegitimate child."

- Nusholtz

February 16, 2011 at 7:49am

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I don't think it's that complicated. Cognitive Bias. It's actually really easy to let yourself believe all manner of things that support your own prejudices. Republicans hate having a democrat in the oval. Many of them (not all, but many) hate having a black man in the oval. And they hate...hate hate HATE, with the white hot intensity of a thousand exploding suns... the growing possibility that despite all their bullshit, that not only will Obama succeed to a second term, but that his second term will end with the United States being better off economically, safer, at peace, and in all other ways a more Perfect Union than they one he found. That's a lot of hate. With hate like that, you hear the person was born in Nairobi to Hussein Mohammad Al Jihad and Svetlana Stalin, educated in Indonesian madrassas by itinerant Shiite economic edvisors from Havanna before being hired by George Soros to turn the U.S. into a giant re-education camp in preparation for the next caliphate, you tell youself hey, it might be true, and gleefully pass it on.

- Tristan

February 16, 2011 at 10:17am

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The word Muslim is the new N word. Teabaggers can act like their 1950s cultural ancestors on TV, but they can't say the N word on TV anymore. So they substitute it for Muslim. Whenever you hear them say the word Muslim, substitute it for the N word. It works everytime.

- gwhitaker

February 16, 2011 at 10:33am

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A line I've heard is that his short-form birth certificate has been verified, but that Hawaii will give one to anyone who moves into the state, thus it proves nothing. Meanwhile, the long-form birth certificate is not available. I was not able to refute it when I heard it, anyone have any information?

- sighthnd

February 16, 2011 at 10:52am

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I think you're trying to make these "beliefs" more consistent than they are or have to be. As if the disposition to answer "no" (sincerely) to the pollster's question "Do you believe President Obama was born in the US?" or "yes" (sincerely) to the question "Do you believe his is a Muslim? (or terrorist sympathizer, etc.)" is the same as having a consistent explanation of how this "fact" could be integrated into what else the person knows. What these opinions do is express a sense of alienation from the current presidency - it's the alienation that's sincere - and they spread not because new people have their belief-systems altered by argument or evidence but because it feels good to these alienated people to hear someone else express (and confirm) what they're feeling, and to express it themselves, and these "beliefs" project into the external world a "cause" for their common sense of helplessness, isolation and frustration with respect to society. Why politicians are pandering to this dynamic is also pretty easy to explain, on short-term self-interested grounds. In neither case does "belief" imply "element of an empirically-consistent account of the world in general." That's my, rather windy, belief about it, at least. And if you think any lamestream media types can talk me out of it, me and my buddies are wise to all that!

- rmutt

February 16, 2011 at 10:59am

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sighthnd Are you saying that if someone moves to Hawaii, that Hawaii will issue them a birth certificate showing they were born in Hawaii? That can't be possible.

- Nusholtz

February 16, 2011 at 11:17am

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I’ve followed the birthers since June 200. I closely followed all 70+ birther cases nationwide and read every single birther pleading; I followed all the main “birther” websites and discussion forums and have followed all state “birther” legislation. With that background, I think the “birthers” (and those answering polls) can be fairly categorized as follows: 1. The “It’s a Conspiracy” Birthers. These birthers believe that there has been a massive cover-up. They believe it started in the mid-2000s or possibly earlier, but they do not, by the way, believe that there was a 50-year conspiracy. E.g., they don’t believe that the HI birth announcements were planted 50 years ago. They believe that the birth announcements are FAKE – that they were inserted into the microfiche of the newspapers around 2007 or so. The theory goes that “experts” have examined the microfiche at multiple US libraries and every single set of microfiche shows signs of tampering.) These birthers, like 9/11 conspiracists, have an ever growing list of “evidence” to prove the conspiracy. As noted above, they believe that the HI birth announcements are fake and were planted in the 2000s. They believe that the COLB is fake (and that FactCheck.og conspired with Obama to dispel the doubters). They believed (and some still do) that the two demonstrably fake “Kenyan Birth Certificates” are real. They believe the edited tape of Obama’s grandmother (edited to say that he was born in Kenya) is real and that the full tape (showing she didn’t say that) is a fake. They believe that Lolo Soetoro adopted Obama as a child, making him an Indonesian citizen. They believe that he went to college as a foreign (Indonesian) citizen. They believe that the Obama administration has “intimidated” federal judges to dismiss the birther cases and that Obama has spent millions of dollars to hide his records. Every month or so, someone makes a new “BREAKING” discovery related to the conspiracy. Some of their theories directly contradict each other – and birther claims. (For example, one theory is that the reason Obama is “hiding” his real birth certificate is because it shows that Frank Marshall Davis is his father. Never mind that that would make him a US citizen regardless of where he was born ...) And, just as one “conspiracy” gets debunked, they come up with another one. For example, in 2009, just as it became clear that one of the “Kenyan” birth certificates was a fake, another one appeared and these birther set out to prove that it was real. 2. The “He’s gotta be hiding SOMETHING” Birthers. These birthers don’t necessarily believe all – or any – of the various conspiracies. but they don’t trust Obama at all and they just can’t understand why “Obama keeps hiding all his records.” If he was born in Hawaii, why not just produce the original birth certificate, they ask. They believe (incorrectly) that he’s spent “millions of dollars” to seal his records and the fact that he “just won’t produce” it makes them believe that there’s something wrong with it. If and when a state passes a birther bill requiring submission of a certified Certificate of Live Birth, and when Obama produces his (as he will, if required), these birthers will be satisfied that he was born in the U.S. But – they still won’t trust him and they still won’t like him. They’ll still believe that he’s hiding SOMETHING. 3. The “Constitutionalist Birthers.” These are the most under reported group – and, I believe, have made up the largest percentage of birthers for about a year now. (To be sure, many “Constitutionalist Birthers” also believe that “he’s gotta be hiding something” – but they do not believe all the various conspiracies, and generally do not believe he was born in Kenya or became an Indonesian citizen.) In brief, these birthers have co-opted Tea Party calls to return to “constitutionalism” (obviously, as they define it). According to these birthers, the term “Natural Born Citizen” as used in the Constitution meant that the President must be born in the US – to US citizens. They contend that at the time of the Constitution, the applicable “rule” of citizenship was that one obtained their citizenship from their parents. They cite selected publications and selected pre-1898 case law to support their argument that “Natural Born Citizen” means born in US to US parents. Based on that principle, their argument is, essentially, as follows: (1) Although Obama was born in Hawaii, he is not eligible to be President because he is not a “Natural Born Citizen.” (2) He is not a natural born citizen because he was born a UK citizen.* (3) Under UK law at the time of his birth, a child born to a UK citizen was a UK citizen, even if born elsewhere. (4) Therefore, Obama was a UK citizen at birth. (5) Therefore Obama is not a “Natural Born Citizen.” The reality is that the “Constitutionalist” argument has dominated the birther legal cases for the past year. In fact, there were several birther cases that focused exclusively on this argument. This theory is very attractive to Tea Partiers because it has many parallels with (and borrows from) the Tea Party’s general anti-immigration stance. So – it fits within their general view that children born in the US to “foreigners” should not be US citizens. If you look at state legislation, you’ll find that the same representatives introducing “birther bills” are also introducing “no birthright citizenship” bills. And, if you look at state birther legislation, you’ll find that may (though admittedly not all) such bills contain this “Constitutionalist” component. And the reality also is (imho), that “Constitutionalist Birthers” now make up the largest percentage of birthers. So, although they do believe Obama was born in the US (or, at a minimum, don’t care where he was born), they respond to pollster questions on the issue by saying “no” – he wasn’t. Because the pollster’s not asking the “right” question for them – so the only way that they can respond to indicate that they don’t believe he’s eligible to be President is to say “yes” to the questions regarding place of birth. 4. The “I hate Obama Birthers.” Similar to your “no one really believes this stuff” – category, there is a substantial group that just hates Obama. They don’t really believe any of this “stuff” (though they find the “Constitutionalist” argument very compelling), but they hate Obama and are willing to perpetuate the myth in the hopes of turning more people against Obama. --------------------------------- If a pollster wants to understand the phenomenon of birtherism, s/he will craft a poll asking something like “Do you believe Obama is a Natural Born Citizen?” – with a follow-up series of questions as to why – to get to which particular theory the person has bought into. And for those who say they believe he was born in Kenya, a follow-up series of questions directed at the various theories relating to that claim. I strongly suspect that a “properly” phrased poll will show that the majority of birthers now are “Constitutionalist” Birthers and/or “He’s gotta be hiding something” birthers.

- tesibria

February 16, 2011 at 12:15pm

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sighthnd said: A line I've heard is that his short-form birth certificate has been verified, but that Hawaii will give one to anyone who moves into the state, thus it proves nothing. Meanwhile, the long-form birth certificate is not available. First, the “short form” certificate – a COLB – is the legal form that proves place of birth for purposes of US citizenship. So if the COLB, which shows birth in Hawaii, has been verified, that proves – for all legal purposes, that Obama was born in Hawaii. Second, Hawaii will not give a COLB to someone who moves into the state. (Back in the early 1900s, there was an issue with that – which is why back then, the US would not accept HI birth certificates as proof of US citizenship. That was *not* the case when Obama was born and that is not the case today.) Third, Hawaii will give a COLB to a person born outside the state. This is true! For example, if a Hawaiian mother has her child while visiting Mexico, she *can* get a Hawaiian COLB which will show that her child was born in Mexico (but is a US citizen because born to US mother). So, yes, she’ll have a Hawaii COLB. But no, it will not show birth in Hawaii. It will show birth in Mexico. Fourth, the long-form certificate is reportedly available – and subject to privacy laws, so it cannot be released without Obama’s approval. Moreover, the long-form certificate is not the “legal proof” of US citizenship, as can be seen by a visit to the US State Department website which will lead you, for purposes of proving US citizenship based on a Hawaii birth, to information on how to obtain a Hawaii COLB. Therefore, it’s irrelevant to proving Obama’s citizenship.

- tesibria

February 16, 2011 at 12:25pm

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Oops - typo .. above, I meant: "I’ve followed the birthers since June 2008 (i.e., when the first "COLB is a forgery" theory started).

- tesibria

February 16, 2011 at 12:31pm

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I guess there's another, more meta, explanation. People tend to read all political poll questions as an invitation to take sides. No matter what the literal meaning of the question, many will take it to mean: "Are you for Obama or against him?" So the answer "born outside the US" = "against."

- KevinM

February 16, 2011 at 1:01pm

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Thank you tesibria. Very interesting.

- Nusholtz

February 16, 2011 at 1:01pm

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My vote goes for bat-shit crazy, as proposed in comment 1. Being an outright bigot helps, but is not necessary. Status as an ignoramus helps. Having lead an insular life, isolated by geography (or choice) from them doggone foreigners is a better indicator. I read recently that only 30 percent of Ameican adults hold a passport. Among birthers, I'm willing to be that it's more like 75 percent. This country contains a large number of incurious, ill-infomed doofuses (doofi??) . If pointing that out makes me an elitist, so be it.

- gwcross

February 16, 2011 at 5:35pm

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In my experience tesibria's #4 explanation accounts for almost all of the birthers that I've met. They hate Obama (as much as they would hate any Democratic President) and they will perpetuate any criticism of him, even if they believe it to be false. Granted, these are all people who still talk about the Clintons murdering Vince Foster.

- Attrill

February 17, 2011 at 2:49am

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When I saw the crowds in Egypt with their many young men I thanked the gods that might be that our Tea Party patriots are mostly old people like myself. We are not up for the fight and we are on our way to the exits in any case. We will see young men in the streets if we have another ten years without jobs and highly successful sales at Christies and Sotheby's. Then it will be time to worry.

- paskunac

February 17, 2011 at 7:36am

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6. I don't like him, so anything bad about him must be true. Obama hates America? Yup. He's a bad driver? Probably. Leaves the toilet seat up? Undoubtedly. Etc.

- Mikelawyr22

February 17, 2011 at 9:22am

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Bad title for the whole thread. "Thinking" is a far too generous and inaccurate word for any of the possible responses noted anywhere in this line of discussion. It would probably be better to make a verb out of "knee-jerk" (knee-jerking?) and use that to describe what's going on.

- cspencef

February 17, 2011 at 9:43am

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Nusholtz I am not saying that that is the case. My point is that a right wing friend of mine said that to me as though it is true and I do not have any conclusive information to refute it. Yes, that does sound crazy. That does not mean that I can categorically reject it. Everything about the birth certificate also ignores all the other evidence of Obama's birth in Hawaii, including the announcement in the major Honolulu newspapers (which I've heard one right-winger claimer could that he would not put it past Obama to forge) and the personal recollection of Barbara Nelson of her conversation with the obstetrician who delivered him the day after his birth (http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/birthcertificate.asp)

- sighthnd

February 17, 2011 at 4:56pm

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Thank you tesibria, I can now definitively refute the claim from my right-wing friend. I personally didn't believe the claim, though as your comment shows, it was valid in the distant past. I merely intended to air out one of the claims of the birthers, hoping to get good information like what was in your response.

- sighthnd

February 17, 2011 at 5:03pm

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I thank you as well, tesibria! Very enlightening. Have all the cases been ruled on yet?

- GSpinks

February 18, 2011 at 11:41am

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GSpinks, I think there's still one case still pending in district court, and a couple still pending on appeal. You can see the listing of cases and their disposition here: http://tiny.cc/BirtherScorecard

- tesibria

February 22, 2011 at 10:50am

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