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Go Home The News on Jobs: Awful

JONATHAN COHN JULY 8, 2011

The News on Jobs: Awful

Economists had hoped last months' dismal employment report represented a temporary slow down. But June's report, published this morning, is even worse. To explain what it all means, here's Gary Burtless of the Brookings Institution:

As far as the job market is concerned, the economy is stuck in neutral. Even if the economy is growing, progress on the jobs front has slowed to a halt. For Americans who are currently seeking work that will mean continued pain. According to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics payroll survey, employers added only 18,000 jobs in June, not much different from the revised estimate of 25,000 new jobs in May. The news from the household survey was even worse. The number of employed adults fell 445,000 in June, boosting the unemployment rate from 9.1 percent to 9.2 percent. The jobless rate has now risen by almost half a percentage point since March.

Taking a longer view the numbers look better, but not much. Since December of last year the employer survey shows job gains of 126,000 a month and payroll gains in the private sector of 158,000 a month. Government employment has been declining, and it continued to fall in June, offsetting some of the employment gains in the private sector. The household survey shows slower job gains so far this year. Respondents in that survey report employment gains of just 21,000 a month. For purposes of comparison, the nation needs to add about 105,000 to 110,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate from rising. The employer survey shows we have slightly exceeded that benchmark since the beginning of this year. The household survey shows we have fallen short.

Revisions in the two data series may eventually reduce the apparent inconsistency. The crucial point, however, is that neither indicator shows a pace of job creation that is fast enough to reduce the nation’s unemployment rate very quickly. If the jobless rate were 5 percent, this news would be tolerable. But when unemployment exceeds 9 percent, it should be unacceptable. Even taking a rosy view of employment gains over the past 6 or 12 months, it will be many years before the nation eliminates the current shortfall in jobs. To bring the adult employment rate back to its pre-recession level, we would need to add about 11 million new jobs. At the pace of job growth we have seen since the start of the year, that task may take decades.

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I don't know why anyone should be surprised at this. With states in austerity mode and the Federal government not even doing what is necessary to offset that, why would we expect anything else. Keynes was right. It is that simple. If we want to get rid of the slack in the labor market in less than years, the answer quite simply is government spending. There is nothing else. The best form of spending would be on fixing our crumbling infrastructure (after making sure that state governments can re-hire works with grants, not loans). Then we can both get the economy moving and protect our international competitiveness for a generation. That is a task of several trillion.

- roidubouloi

July 8, 2011 at 11:57am

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Yes. While unemployment rises, and the recovery from the Recession slows, meanwhile our Congress and President are nattering about raising the Debt-Limit, threatening WORSE financial disaster. The Republicans have much to answer for.

- AllanL5

July 8, 2011 at 11:58am

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The economy isn't really that bad. A few 50 billions would allow the states to QUIT FIRING people in the middle of a Recession -- you'd think that would be more important to employment than additional tax-cuts.

- AllanL5

July 8, 2011 at 11:59am

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You'd think. This really is the horrid downside of the Bush tax cuts. Keynes said run surpluses in a boom and increase government spending and run deficits in a recession. That swing can be a huge injection of demand. The Bush tax cuts stood this on its head. Not only do we have colossal deficits, but we don't get any net stimulus to show for it. The rubberband should have been taught in the boom, instead, due to Bush, it was slack and thus very hard to slacken some more.

- roidubouloi

July 8, 2011 at 12:11pm

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It's very much in the Republicans' best interests to keep unemployment high, and they will oppose any measure that offers a good chance of bringing it down, regardless of how much hardship it causes. The Republicans care absolutely nothing about the general welfare of the nation, but they keep convincing millions of dum-dum Americans that the GOP has their best interests at heart. It is essential that Obama and the Democrats in Congress both highlight this loathsome cynicism and demonstrate that they are trying to create jobs against Republican opposition. One way is through the creation of an Infrastructure Bank, an idea that Obama floated but didn't press hard enough for. Obama has got to suggest several wide-ranging programs that would both create jobs and invest in the nation's future. He should insist that they be paid for largely with revenue increases that would be popular with most people (plugging tax loopholes benefiting the rich and cash-heavy corporations, for starters) and so would not add to the deficit. Then let the Republicans do everything they can to torpedo each such proposal and call loud attention to their opposition. However, if Obama and the Democrats in Congress do this and the Republicans can still convince most people that the high unemployment rate is all the fault of Obama's "job-killing agenda," then I despair of this nation ever getting back on its feet. The stupidity of the electorate seems boundless, which is why we have such a terrible, dysfunctional government. There must be some way to slap some sense into middle-class people who keep shooting themselves in the foot by voting Republican.

- DAVIDDREIER@EARTHLINK.NET-old

July 8, 2011 at 12:41pm

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It's ironic that Boehner is now claiming the Obama administration's policies resulted in the rise in unemployment -- since he's been holding America hostage to implement the Republican policies that got use here -- Extend the Bush tax-cuts, 34 billion in spending cuts in April, and now the Debt-Ceiling. These certainly aren't Obama's policies in play. I suppose, if the economy improved, he'd claim it was these very Republican policies that led to the recovery. Sadly, these Republican policies are hindering the recovery, but they're still asking for more of the same. I suppose I shouldn't take anything Republicans say seriously anymore -- no matter what happens, it's Obama's fault, and lower taxes will fix it.

- AllanL5

July 8, 2011 at 12:59pm

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It's not really ironic, Allan. This was the plan from the start, to hinder Obama and then blame him when things get worse, and we knew it; they even said as much publically, if avoiding actually claiming to intend to harm the country. I just don't see why the discussion has moved away from creating jobs at all. Corporations have plenty of cash on hand, perhaps not at truly record setting levels but they are without a doubt flush, but they aren't using it to create jobs; they're sending it to Wall St to gain dividends or hoarding it in the banks. And all the Republicans can say is "we need to give them more tax breaks". And the Republican demands for cutting even job creating portions of the federal budget, like NTSB, make absolutely NO sense. What's wrong with having the government pour it's money into the private sector for the benefit of the entire country? The only answers that make any sense are either a) they want to cause this country to implode on itself, or b) that it might create jobs, which might lower the unemployment rate, which might benefit Obama's approval rating, which might increase his reelection chances, which we know is totally unacceptable. It could be a combination of both, but I can't imagine how ignorance plays into this situation to any significant degree.

- GSpinks

July 8, 2011 at 3:11pm

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