JONATHAN COHN NOVEMBER 11, 2011
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Republicans and their conservative allies are convinced that Europe’s economic troubles validate their ideological beliefs – in particular, the idea that large social welfare states are doomed to failure. Paul Krugman doesn’t agree:
It’s true that all European countries have more generous social benefits — including universal health care — and higher government spending than America does. But the nations now in crisis don’t have bigger welfare states than the nations doing well — if anything, the correlation runs the other way. Sweden, with its famously high benefits, is a star performer, one of the few countries whose G.D.P. is now higher than it was before the crisis. Meanwhile, before the crisis, “social expenditure” — spending on welfare-state programs — was lower, as a percentage of national income, in all of the nations now in trouble than in Germany, let alone Sweden.
As you might expect, I agree with Krugman. And I’d go even farther. Conservatives have been complaining about the supposed inefficiency of large welfare states for a very long time. But in the last few years, respected economists like Jeff Sachs and Joseph Stiglitz have been pointing out that the data suggests otherwise. The countries with the most generous welfare states in Europe are the Scandinavian ones, where the overall tax burden exceeds 50 percent – in other words, more than half of all income goes back to the government. Yet these have thrived economically.
This isn’t coincidental, the economists argue. On the contrary, the generous welfare states that these taxes support guarantee economic security and the provision of essential services – not just health care but also quality day care – that make people less anxious about economic volatility. That, in turn, allows the government to pursue free trade and other policies that allow for a more fluid economy. Here's Stiglitz, from a speech he gave back in 2007:
Globalization necessitates people responding to change or moving from job-to-job. And in the Swedish model, they responded by providing for active labor policies and systems of social insurance that facilitate people moving from job-to-job and provide them with security. One of the aspects of success in a modern economy is willingness to undertake risk. And they would argue that because they have greater security, people are more willing to take risk. They’ve managed their macro economy to have full employment. But not only full employment at low, but full employment at high wages.
And so they have addressed a lot of the problems of insecurity, not perfectly but far better I think than the United States. And the result is, at least in many of the countries of Scandinavia, a much greater willingness to embrace change, the kinds of change that one needs in a dynamic economy.
The danger in making this argument, as Ross Douthat has pointed out, is that analogies between Scandinavia and the U.S. start to break down once you think about the differences between the countries. The Scandinavians are more homogenous and, obviously, smaller than we are. That has implications for policy and politics. But as a general rule, the Scandinavian example shows that the welfare state per se is not incompatible with a dynamic economy. On the contrary, the two can actually reinforce one another.
9 comments
Improved GDP in high tax countries with more welfare does not surprise me. It stands to reason that aggregate consumption and GDP will drop as income inequality increases. It stands to reason that a flat tax which collects the same revenue as a progressive tax will diminish agregate consumption more than a progressive tax will diminish aggregate consumption. The Supply Side Economics that is being promoted by conservatives lacks evidence that the intersection of aggregate supply and aggregate demand will be significantly affected by less regulation or lower taxes.
- Nusholtz
November 11, 2011 at 3:41pm
"The Scandinavians are more homogeneous and, obviously, smaller than we are" I am always curious as to what this has to do with anything or whether its even statistically true. Australia is considerably less homogeneous than the US; its foreign born population is nearly double that of the US (20% to approx 12%), and another 30% have at least one foreign born parent, which leaves the US in the dust. It manages to support a considerably better welfare state. Even Sweden has a higher percentage of foreign born inhabitants at 14% (albeit 14% of them are from Finland, but the next largest cohort is from Iraq). So since even the Swedish are actually, well, less Swedish than Americans are American, how does the size factor into things? Clearly the skill set of immigrants to Australia and Sweden look very different to the US (in the aggregate), but that's not what's being said.
- Nari224
November 11, 2011 at 3:55pm
Here I sit, an engineer/scientist on the downhill side of middle age, with maybe 10-12 more good years in me. My healthcare and retirement security are almost entirely dependent on the security of my employment. Do I have ideas I would risk in the market place if I were sure my spouse would not die of treatable medical conditions should my ideas fail, or that going to work for a startup would not put my retirement at risk? Damned straight. Will those ideas ever see the light of day under my name in our system. No way. The very large, very entrenched company I work for won't develop them because they're either too risky, or undercut their existing monetization models, and I am not going to take the risk that I engage with a startup that fails, and that I can then get no health care coverage at any price. I might risk the lower retirement income that would come if can't keep paying into my defined contribution plan at top rate but the health care coverage risk is absolutely definitive.
- IowaBeauty
November 11, 2011 at 4:16pm
I second Nari224's questions. I've heard it said that the Scandinavian countries can only afford their social welfare states because they restrict immigration (legal & not, & especially non-white) much more than we do. Also, are their cultural factors in these countries that provide more support for these policies than in this country?
- s.trabka@frontier.com-old
November 11, 2011 at 10:52pm
I loves me a generous welfare state, but you guys have to be a little realistic with the numbers here. The US is the third largest nation in the world in terms of population. California has more people than Canada, and New York plus Connecticut = Australia. Even being generous, that means Australia is acculturating 4.8 million people. They don't have borders but they work hard to keep boat crossers out of the country. It's not an insignificant issue there. 12% of the US population is 36 million people. That's a lot of people. That's as many people as live in California. Remember that if California were a country, its GDP would be in the top 10. You can't just hide 36 million people under a rock, especially if you have a 2000 mile-long land border by which more people may come. Making sure the welfare state thrives and supports American economic growth and the economic security of Americans is important. Pretending that it's easy or that size doesn't matter is counterproductive. (Of course, pretending that government programs are exploiting the needy for selfish gain is obviously worse.)
- chaitless
November 12, 2011 at 12:59am
Ryan's right. Societies need more insecurity not less. The FIRE sector needs less regulation. Lets really push this never ending Neo Liberal nightmare to its absolute extreme and see how bad it gets.
- IggyPop
November 12, 2011 at 7:19am
Could someone help me out with something? Prof Niall Ferguson has hailed Ryan's balance budget plan as the answer to the economic problems. We've all read numerous pieces from Chait to Cohn to guest writers on why Ryan's plan is not just the wrong answer but is at best disingenuous propaganda and at worst the work of an amateur who hasn't got a clue about basic maths, never mind economics. Taking that into account. How can Niall Ferguson hold one of the most prestigious jobs in your country, in Harvard?
- IggyPop
November 12, 2011 at 11:17am
Everybody should read this article in Inc. magazine. Norway as capitalist beacon, from a magazine that in no way is trying to promote socialism http://www.inc.com/magazine/20110201/in-norway-start-ups-say-ja-to-socialism.html
- RedState
November 13, 2011 at 9:33am
chaitless - Out of curiosity, what does it matter if 12% of the US population is 36 million people? The US economy is considerably larger than 14x the Australian economy (the population difference) so it's actually easier to hide these people (economically) under a rock than it is in say Australia or Canada. Additionally a welfare state tends to promote stronger citizen identification mechanisms, which tends to drive down incidence of illegal immigrant fraud (and their opportunities for employment). And it's not like we're talking about letting hospitals turn away people or schools their children which are the primary drains on the "welfare" state today. Illegals have a difficult time claiming unemployment insurance as I understand it.
- Nari224
November 13, 2011 at 7:21pm