PLANK JUNE 11, 2012
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One demographic has plagued Obama since his primary duel with Hillary Clinton: white voters without a college degree. Although Obama ultimately won enough white non-college voters to win the presidency in 2008, his performance was underwhelming by historic standards. And over the last four years, Obama’s already tepid support among white voters without a college degree has collapsed. At the same time, the “newer” elements of the Democratic coalition—college educated and non-white voters—have continued to offer elevated levels of support to the president. The latest polls show this trend continuing, indicating an unprecedented education gap among white voters—a gap that could put Obama’s electoral chances in jeopardy.
Let’s dig into the numbers. Since February, 25 state and national polls from Quinnipiac and Pew Research disaggregated Obama’s standing against Romney by educational attainment. The dataset has weaknesses, as the Quinnipiac state polls sample six somewhat unrepresentative East Coast states. Even so, the degree of consistency across the six states and the six national polls is striking: Of the 25 polls, 22 show a larger drop-off among non-college educated white voters.
On average, Obama has lost nearly 6 percentage points among white voters without a college degree. Given that Obama had already lost millions of traditionally Democratic white working class voters in 2008, this degree of further deterioration is striking. In the three national polls conducted since April, Obama held just 34 percent of white voters without a college degree, compared to 40 percent in 2008. Thirty-four percent places Obama in the company of Walter Mondale, George McGovern, and the 2010 House Democrats. These are landslide numbers.
At the same time, college educated white voters continue to offer 2008 levels of support to the President. In the same 25 polls, Obama lost an average of just 1.5 percentage points among white voters with a college degree. The national polls show Obama holding just as well, and the most recent Pew poll actually shows Obama improving on his 2008 performance among college educated whites.
The uneven decline of Obama’s 2008 coalition has opened an unprecedented education gap among white voters. The current polls show that the education gap could nearly double, at least if Romney can persuade the undecided white working class Obama ‘08 voters with reservations about Obama’s performance. In 2008, Obama lost white college graduates by four points and whites without a college degree by 19 points. If the national polls are correct, and Obama currently holds approximately 35 percent of the white non-college vote, then Romney has an opportunity to win white non-college voters by 30 points. If Romney does so, the education gap would increase from 15 points in 2008 to 26 points in 2012. For comparison, the vaunted gender gap was 14 points in 2008 and 13 points in the most recent Pew poll.
The emerging education gap could rejigger the electoral map, leaving Obama well positioned in states where Obama is less dependent on the support of white voters without a college degree—the educated and diverse mid-Atlantic and southwestern states—but giving Romney an advantage in states where Democrats need white non-college voters—the traditionally Democratic Midwestern states, where nearly half of Obama’s 2008 supporters were whites without a college degree.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that the growing education gap manifests uniformly across a diverse country. In 2008, Obama received about the same share of white voters without a college degree as Kerry in 2004, but that national-level stability belied big regional shifts. Obama had made significant gains among white working class voters in the Midwest and West, vaulting traditionally Republican states like Montana and Indiana into the toss-up column. At the same time, white working class voters in greater Appalachia and much of the rural South either didn’t vote or switched to McCain, leaving Obama routed in historically competitive states like West Virginia and Arkansas.
Unfortunately, there isn’t yet enough data to determine the geographic distribution of Obama’s white non-college defectors. Even so, wide variance in Obama’s dependence on white non-college voters points toward the possibility that Obama’s chances in Wisconsin could be in jeopardy, even as Obama’s narrower margins in Virginia and North Carolina appear intact. This means that Obama’s strong showing in the Wisconsin recall exit poll takes outsized significance in this context. If Obama’s enduring strength among educated and non-white voters keeps Obama competitive in traditionally Republican states like Virginia and North Carolina, but Romney doesn’t get his end of the bargain in Democratic-but-white-working-class states like Wisconsin, the electoral map starts to look a lot better for Obama. On the other hand, Wisconsin’s demographics give the Romney campaign cause to at least initially contest the state, even if the current polling looks unfavorable.
There is, however, a potential upside for Obama in all this: Despite the president’s diminished standing among less educated white voters, Romney has not yet convinced disaffected voters to join his cause. Instead, many of these voters remain undecided, and Romney still trails McCain’s eventual tallies in many of these polls. In all but one of the 25 polls, less educated whites were more likely to be undecided than college educated whites. In the six national polls, 5 percent of college educated whites were undecided compared to 9 percent of whites without a college degree.
Romney’s road to victory starts with consolidating disaffected voters who do not approve of the President’s performance. Unsurprisingly then, the Obama campaign’s initial wave of advertising appears well-suited to disrupting those efforts. Depicting Romney as a plutocratic corporate raider seems likely to resonate with working class voters, especially since many traditionally have voted for Democratic presidential candidates. On the other hand, most of these voters harbor deep reservations about Obama’s performance and probably voted for Republicans in the 2010 midterms. Romney’s main goal in the coming months will be to convince them to join his cause.
26 comments
Gary Johnson is not considered when voting patterns are analyzed. It's too bad that his candidacy is ignored.
- Doug12
June 11, 2012 at 9:30am
Well, at least there are still enough outstanding "undecided" voters that Obama might be able to swing something before November.
- GSpinks
June 11, 2012 at 10:08am
The President’s dilemma (i.e., a problem without a resolution) is not his moderate-Republican philosophy of political economy; and, in the strictest sense, it is not his race. It is the irreconcilable white (especially white male) working class hostility to African Americans who clearly cannot be rationalized (BY THESE SAID SAME WHITES) as really being inferior to them. In the racial universe of the white working class; Howard “Bo” Jackson; Michael Jordan, Michael Vick, Muhammad Ali, can be easily rationalized as being overgrown trained gorillas; who, naturally when a white man steps into the physical competitive arena with them, is obviously going to loose, because it’s a human being (the white), in a physical, human vs. animal competition; with, what is in fact an animal, the semi-human black brute. And in that competition, the white, can loose, and still be not the inferior, because it was/is, a competition between a human (the white) vs. the semi-human (the black). It is also the case that in virtually all the public displays of the black-brute, he is displayed as the trained pet, instrument, and property of quintessential whites ( think the NFL’s Jerry Jones; Golf’s Jack Nicklaus); and white institutions (think Bush 41 and Gen. Colin Powell, or Bush 43 and Connie Rice). But President Obama can fit into none of the comfortable stereotypical working class white myths of African Americans. No matter how hard he tries to pretend, Obama can’t cover up his upper class origins in Hawaii; his graduation from Columbia University, or Harvard Law School. He neither looks nor sounds like Congressmen John Lewis or James Clyburn. As President, he is America’s Head-of-State and Head-of-Government; he has no peer in the American system. He is not in a job where he can be rationalized as under the control of some white individual or white institution which he must seek approval or concurrence of and that is not reconcilable.
- 12alainu
June 11, 2012 at 10:47am
Obama's problem with the white working class is the democratic party's same problem with the same demographic writ large. There almost seems to be a kind of tone deafness on the part of democrats to this group. Democrats have a product to offer for women, and another for various minorities and still another for LGTB. Precisely what product does the democratic party offer the white middle class? Bear in mind as you try to answer that question that however bright your answer, one must hope it is not lost on these voters. The democratic party has historically made itself the party of advocacy of the downtrodden and marginalized. I think that on the whole, the white working class does not perceive the democratic party as understanding it to be particularly in need of assistance. If they feel that way, they could be forgiven for drawing that conclusion. We can say its about race but I don't see how that is helpful. A white working class voter who internalizes a message from the democratic party that "you are already privileged", "you don't need or deserve help", "you should understand how free trade is making you prosperous" and "we doubt we really need your vote" is a white working class voter who has been paying attention.
- dcwood10
June 11, 2012 at 12:53pm
I'd bet heavily that the largest factor determining undecided non-college white voters will be the state of the economy in October, 2012. Employment and GNP headed down, its Prez Mittens. Headed up, its Prez Barack. What Mittens does with a win is pretty obvious. What BHO does is??? Empower Repubs is the most likely guess as he is exceedingly likely to have a Repubh House and/or Senate. A Pyhrric victory for Dems.
- drofnats1
June 11, 2012 at 1:09pm
But dcwod, the white working-class voter must know that Obama and a Democratic Congress worked successfully to save one of the primary employers in the mid-west, the auto industry, from total disaster. It's been a big national story. This should normally be the kind of solid achievement that comprises exactly the message you claim isn't forthcoming. If, in the face of an actual record of saving a crucial element of the country's industrial base, and the jobs that go with it, the response is "Obama's favoring blacks" or similar -- then maybe 12alainu above has it to rights with his analyisis?
- ironyroad
June 11, 2012 at 2:36pm
I'd bet Obama's problem with uneducated white voters is the fact that he is a black guy. Jobs or no jobs the attacks on Obama have been relentless and they are racially charged. There are bumper stickers, GOP bumper stickers, urging people not to "re-nig." This isn't complicated. Also: I beg to differ that the Democrats offer nothing to the middle class. Is "middle class" some kind of paradise where people don't need health care, freedom of choice, freedom to marry, freedom to have a decent environment and retire with a modicum of security? Is the "middle class" immune to misfortune? I think maybe by this definition one means people making over a million bucks a year?
- Sophia
June 11, 2012 at 2:38pm
Sophia. I rarely disagree with you, but this IS more complicated. The non-college white voters in play in 2008 and are by definition not voters who are against BHO BECAUSE he's black. Those racist voters-- of any color and education level-- were lost in 2008 and are not gainable in 2012. The economy will be the biggest variable that determines the voting pattern of those tens of millions of non-racist non-college voters ---who incidently, are not necessarily uneducated.. If education equates with political smarts, most pundits and journalists these days shouldn't have dropped out of kindergarten.
- drofnats1
June 11, 2012 at 3:11pm
You can also add most CEO's to that list of kindergarten drop-outs.
- drofnats1
June 11, 2012 at 3:12pm
I have a serious problem with the characterization of undecided voters as those who "do not approve of the President's performance." As Norman Ornstein and Thomas Mann point out in their recent book, "It's Even Worse Than You Think," the press has an obligation to report political matters 'truthfully' and not just 'objectively.' Non-educated voters who can't decide which side they are on are people who lack information--for any number of perfectly valid reasons--and thus are NOT people really qualified to approve or disapprove of a president's performance. What they actually disapprove of is the way the country is working--or not--for them. Even the polling questions lack authority when considered from this angle. Ornstein and Mann characterize these voters as "referendum voters." They have too little information to make a thoughtful decision about whom they wish to support, so they often "swing" to the other party out of frustration with a particular national issue. (War, economy, etc.) I hope the writers at TNR will take this into account as the election moves forward this year. Think about it: how could anyone who's been paying attention to the complex set of issues facing our country NOT already know which side he or she will be on in November?
- aparker527
June 11, 2012 at 5:54pm
amen aparker527! This "new economy" we are in is doing super for certain people, but that vast majority of Americans are getting left out of the prosperity. These aren't necessarily hardcore Republicans, it wasn't hardcore Republicans who elected Scott Brown, for example. But here in Massachusetts, the economy works for a lot of people, probably because they do not have to be stressed out about health insurance. And sundry other forward-thinking laws that allow for a good quality of life post-economic crisis. Sen. Brown benefits from this, though he had no hand in making it happen. But people think about Massachusetts and say "why should we elect somebody different? I like my life!" and not seeing how Mr. Brown undercut financial regulation, votes against the environment at all times, doesn't much care for those suffering at the bottom but spends his days agonizing over the plight of millionaires......this can all get overlooked. Now in Ohio, for instance, you have a governor whose signature legislation of gutting unions was overturned by a landslide. People didn't much like him doing that. But Ohio is getting a lot better than its nadir during the crisis, which is why voters brought that scumbag in (because the Democrat got blamed for the crisis.) But Obama stands a good chance of winning that state because he can point to the auto bailout that saved massive amounts of Ohio jobs, among other projects he's initiated. So now you have a Fox News shrill for a governor, and the President of the United States both singing the same tune of a prosperous Ohio. I bet both Obama's approval rating and Kasich's are the same in that state, though they are diametrically opposed ideologically. Romney's "Obama economy" is simply confusing there because people are getting hired. These aren't people who aren't approving the Presidents performance, they are simply voting on the economy. Ohio's and Massachusetts are doing fine. But West Texas, Indiana's, Wisconsins??? There's still too much anger there, and Obama and maybe even some Republicans will be getting blamed.
- RedState
June 11, 2012 at 6:31pm
I'm inclined to agree with dcwood above. Working class whites are angry about their economic plight, with few clear ways out of it. This anger flies out in different directions. This at the same time that Democrats have too often wandered off into cultural and sexual identity politics and deferred to socially liberal, but economically conservative, urban liberal elites, like Wall St. This has given the Republicans the ability to play wedge politics. Also, Obama's failure to clearly paint the class dimensions and economic injustice of this economic crisis and more aggressively confront the Republicans has worked against him. A more aggressive populist stance would have compensated for the unease caused by his biracial heritage and his emotional detachment.
- amidut
June 11, 2012 at 6:45pm
This NYT piece is apropos: http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/09/how-racist-are-we-ask-google/?hp/ The research is gimmicky but not to be casually dismissed. What if working class whites are quick to regress to racism when they observe that the world isn't going their way?
- toddgitlin
June 11, 2012 at 6:52pm
Drofnats1, are you sure that the endless propaganda is playing NO role in turning people against Obama? As far as blaming Democrats for not speaking to working class whites - why not blame Republicans, especially since 2010, who basically hijacked the government, creating a crisis with the debt ceiling and essentially burying any hope of ongoing stimulus including the creation of jobs focused on infrastructure repair - which is both necessary and a logical means of employing out of work tradespeople? Finally, Amidut voices the suspicion that by trying to help women and gay people Obama has lost some voters. That may be true - what would you have us do?
- Sophia
June 12, 2012 at 2:33am
PS needless to say I agree with toddgitlin. The NYT piece is a must read and also, people can't assume that it's impossible for entire groups of people to regress. Look at Nazi era Germany for Example #1. A key factor in the victimization of scapegoats and a return to tribalism, in that case a belief in "Aryan supremacy" was in fact economic hard times. We have a very similar pattern here and also, the same sense of victimization and the desire to blame somebody. It isn't hard to resurrect racism or even create it under these circumstances.
- Sophia
June 12, 2012 at 2:36am
Sophia: Your analogy to Nazi Germany is at the very least hysterical and irresponsible. According to it, Obama is the Jew and the white working class who resist Obama are proto-Nazs. Who is your candidate to fill the role of Hitler, then? Please, get a grip. There is nothing in American recent history that can be compared in good faith to post-WWI Germany. If you want to make a useful analogy at the very least you should make sure you state the precedent accurately and with cognition.
- noga1
June 12, 2012 at 8:31pm
Uh huh. Noga, you're wrong. I'm looking at PRE-WWII Germany. Look at the 24/7 lie machine, at the sense of white victimization, at economic hard times, at the non-stop attacks and blame of "the other" for our problems - be they black people, Mexicans, Obama, Muslims, Jews, women, gay people, "socialists," the hysteria is there. So is the lionization of corporations and the ownership of power and money by a few. We need to keep our eyes open and pretending that this is business as usual is really, really stupid long about now. We have people who are as close to openly fascist as I ever want to see in this country and you cannot, simply cannot underestimate the danger we're in.
- Sophia
June 12, 2012 at 11:37pm
Clarification: you and other apologists for whomever need to stop underestimating the challenge facing America's democracy, RIGHT NOW. It was probably too late in 2000.
- Sophia
June 12, 2012 at 11:39pm
Here, read this - I am hardly alone in being extremely worried. HOPEFULLY if enough people come to their senses and somehow overcome the vast sums of money and propaganda and the underhanded attempts to disenfranchise voters and workers and ordinary people, we'll survive. But first people have to be aware we have a real problem. Nobody realized the Germans were going off the rails either Noga, it didn't occur to anybody that a civilized society could be overcome like that. But it did happen and it's possible that it can happen again. http://littlegreenfootballs.com/page/278125_Sane_Republicans-_Another_Rat_
- Sophia
June 12, 2012 at 11:43pm
Liberals can best reach the white working class by homing in on the economy and how the plutocrats are undermining it. See this current article from Forbes magazine. It clearly proposes to screw the white (and black and everybody else) American working class. After all, black Americans were damaged by European immigration in the late 19th century: Forbes: Screw the American working class. Looks perfectly clear.
- amidut
June 13, 2012 at 7:56am
noga said: "There is nothing in American recent history that can be compared in good faith to post-WWI Germany." Sophia responded: "Uh huh. Noga, you're wrong. I'm looking at PRE-WWII Germany" And then "Nobody realized the Germans were going off the rails either Noga," I would say that this clarification only reinforces my point. If you think that American society today is like German society just before WWII, then you really need to go and check your history books again. Of course most reasonable people knew Germany was going off the rails at that point. Please provide some rational examples for your analogy, for example, the equivalent to Kristallnacht. And btw, most complaint against Jews these days in America come from among the Leftists (Mearsheimer und Walt for instance) and not from the Republican side. And you did not answer my question: Who is in the role of Hitler in your scenario?
- noga1
June 13, 2012 at 7:21pm
"Of course most reasonable people knew Germany was going off the rails at that point." - so, why did they let it happen? Is there a dearth of reasonable people in the world or something?
"the equivalent to Kristallnacht" - let's see, there's the dude in PA who figured he'd kill as many cops as he could because Obama was going to ruin America so bad he would be better off in jail or dead, there have been innumerous bombings and attempted bombings of places like non-fundamentalist (ergo, liberal) churches and abortion clinics, even soldiers convicted of treason because they don't believe Obama is an American citizen, and an endless stream of the worst propaganda and lies from the Right Wing Media Machine.
Hilter would be Murdoch, hands down; murdering witnesses to try to keep from being convicted of phone hacking, and multiple media outlets in America spewing identical propaganda, lies and misinformation, with each purporting to the legitimacy of the other in their self-satisfying-closed-information loop.
And, who cares that dem jews are whining louder than rep jews these days? Where'd you even come up with something like that? and Why?
- GSpinks
June 14, 2012 at 5:03pm
Not to be all "knight in shining armor" Sophia, I just happen to agree that the parallels are getting stronger and stronger. :)
- GSpinks
June 14, 2012 at 5:04pm
I congratulate Sophia for attracting the defence of such a scinitilating thinker as GSpinks. I trust she is happy now with her analogy. "soldiers convicted of treason because they don't believe Obama is an American citizen,"?? And that is proof of anti-Obama racism? Bombing an abortion clinic is like Kristalnacht? "Kristallnacht, ... was a pogrom or series of coordinated attacks against Jews throughout Nazi Germany and parts of Austria on 9–10 November 1938, carried out by SA paramilitary and civilians. German authorities looked on without intervening.[1] The attacks left the streets covered with broken glass from the windows of Jewish-owned stores, buildings, and synagogues.[2] At least 91 Jews were killed in the attacks, and a further 30,000 arrested and incarcerated in concentration camps.[2] Jewish homes, hospitals, and schools were ransacked, as the attackers demolished buildings with sledgehammers.[3] Over 1,000 synagogues were burned (95 in Vienna alone), and over 7,000 Jewish businesses destroyed or damaged.[4][5]" The analogy is simply self-evident. Case closed.
- noga1
June 14, 2012 at 9:12pm
Obama does poorly with stupid voters! Well done Nate, we got the point even with your subtle substitution of "without a college degree" for "stupid". In case you hadn't noticed, there's a strong correlation between education and income. So maybe with the economy in the crapper, you could have written an article that says "Obama does poorly with non-affluent white voters." But.... you're the expert so you probably understand the causality better than the rest of us, and I'm sure you're political views had nothing to do with your analysis.
- dtohmatsu
June 14, 2012 at 11:29pm
Stupidity is indivisible. It favours the white uneducated working-class as well as the highly educated ruling classes: http://www.zimbio.com/Osama+bin+Laden/articles/sCdxtcHEM96/Obama+admin+stabs+Israel+back+2x+one+week Yes yes I know. It is racist to blame Obama for stupidity. Isn't he the lucky one? The highly educated Left likes to talk about "white skin privileges". The kind of comments as posted above (by the savvy Sophia and her learned champion) suggest the beatification of another colour of privileges.
- noga1
June 15, 2012 at 7:40am