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Go Home Who Won Israel's Latest War?

PLANK NOVEMBER 21, 2012

Who Won Israel's Latest War?

BY YOSSI KLEIN HALEVI

There is a measure of thanksgiving, or at least relief, in the land of Israel. With the ceasefire, Israelis are grateful that their young men waiting on the border—and almost everyone has a husband, son, brother, friend among those 70,000 reservists—will be spared the horrors of fighting in Gaza. They are grateful that the civilians in southern Israel can now emerge from their shelters. And they’re grateful that the Jewish state won’t be depicted as a war criminal by Hamas propagandists reveling in the deaths of Palestinian civilians caught in the crossfire.

In the coming days Israeli leaders will attempt to convince voters—election season is about to resume—that this was an Israeli victory. In some sense, they will be right. There’s certainly a case to be made that this round of fighting was not, at least, an Israeli defeat. Militarily, Israel destroyed several thousand rockets and much of the Hamas infrastructure. Despite over a thousand rockets fired at Israeli cities and towns, Israeli casualties were minimal, thanks to the Iron Dome anti-missile system, the real hero of this round of fighting.

There’s good news diplomatically too. Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood regime, which helped negotiate the ceasefire, has been forced for the first time to engage with Israel. As one senior Israeli official put it to me, “[Egyptian President] Morsi had to choose between his loyalty to Egyptian interests and his loyalty to the Muslim Brotherhood ideology, and he chose Egypt.”

Egypt has also assumed tacit responsibility for Hamas, which now has to answer to its new patron. There is now a potential address for Israeli grievances if Hamas violates the ceasefire, and for American pressure on Hamas.

Israel’s relations with Washington have also been strengthened. After creating the widespread impression of interfering in the American election campaign against President Obama, Prime Minister Netanyahu responded to Obama’s intercession to accept a ceasefire. It wasn’t easy: Netanyahu was under growing domestic pressure to resist. There were spontaneous demonstrations all over southern Israel demanding that the offensive against Hamas continue. And when the ceasefire was announced, two leaders from the center-left opposition—Shaul Mofaz of Kadima and Yair Lapid of Yesh Atid (There Is a Future)--condemned Netanyahu for showing weakness. As the election campaign intensifies, Netanyahu will be mocked—by the left!—as indecisive, failing to fulfill the Likud’s long-standing promise to topple Hamas.

In preventing an escalation in Gaza, though, Netanyahu can now restore focus on Iran. Three times in the last six years, Israel has been lured into fighting Hamas and Hezbollah, two terror organizations aligned with Iran. Given the possibility of a looming Israeli confrontation with Iran over its nuclear program, government officials here reasoned that it was better not to continue to deplete Israeli resources on diversionary conflicts with Iran's proxies.

Still, as one Israeli official admitted to me just after the cease-fire was announced, no one here is celebrating.

Yes, Israel destroyed an impressive number of Hamas missiles, and the Iron Dome was a stunning success. But Hamas still has thousands more missiles. And the Iron Dome is outrageously expensive: every anti-missile launching cost $50,000. If in the next round of fighting—and few Israelis doubt there will be one—the war widens to include other forces, the Iron Dome’s capacity will be exhausted. Hezbollah alone has an estimated 80,000 missiles, many of them sophisticated, and all of them aimed at the Israeli home front.

Politically, Hamas’ prestige has been boosted in the Arab world, and especially among Palestinians. (Correspondingly, the big loser is the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas.) A ragged terrorist regime managed to do what hasn't been done since the first Gulf War in 1991: fire missiles at Tel Aviv. Tel Aviv may be, according to some international surveys, the world’s best party city and the most gay friendly; but Hamas has reminded Tel Avivis that they also live in the most endangered city on the planet.

By firing three missiles at Jerusalem, Hamas also ended the long-standing Israeli assumption that the Holy City, with its large Arab population and the Dome of the Rock, was immune from aerial attack. Here too Hamas’ message to Israelis was devastating: No place is safe anymore.

As for Israeli deterrence: Hamas called Israel’s bluff on a ground offensive, and Israel backed down. The mobilization of the reserves was apparently nothing more than an exercise in intimidation. Yet Hamas leaders hardly seemed intimidated. Come on in, they taunted Israeli leaders—fully aware of just how reluctant Israel was to topple Hamas and risk being turned into an international pariah. Hamas leaders acted as if they’d been eavesdropping on Israel’s media debates over a ground invasion, or else reading the polls that showed most Israelis opposed to one. Government ministers spoke openly about the futility of a ground invasion, even as the reservists were gathering on the border. During one TV panel, the education minister, Likudnik Gideon Sa’ar, confessed that there was no alternative to Hamas rule. The strategy of deterrence toward Hamas has always depended on projecting the opposite message.

In the streets of Gaza City, Palestinians celebrated Hamas’ victory. Netanyahu will have to work hard to convince Israeli voters that those celebrants were wrong.

Yossi Klein Halevi is a contributing editor of TNR and a senior fellow of the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem.  

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75 comments

Let's see -- for the first time in about 6 years, Israel actually has an obligation from Hamas of all people, not to launch rockets into Israel. Israel gets to keep the blockade. Israel doesn't have to put its military forces in harms way. I think you're listening way too hard to the victory cheers of Hamas, and paying too little attention to the progress made. Let them cheer, that costs Israel nothing. Meanwhile, Hamas has proven that "opening the borders" simply means they import larger and better weapons -- thereby validating the hard-liners in Israel. This was Hamas's battle lost by winning.

- AllanL5

November 21, 2012 at 6:53pm

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The fighting is part of an ongoing struggle. It's too early to say who won this round. Hamas will no matter what declare "victory." Militarily there is no way Hamas could win. It's ironic though that some Israeli commentators Judge Hamas by the same political standards Hamas judges itself. Some of these commentators (in Haaretz) for example) use these Hamas standards to plead for a 'negotiated settlement." Others, more realistic though still adopting Hamas' view of victory and defeat seem overly pessimistic. Using political, domestic and international, criteria for judgement for a struggle that is essentially militarily is foolish. To argue, as some doves do, that only negotiations will resolve the conflict is to argue a fantasy. When the President of Egypt (a member of the Muslim Brotherhood) refuses to talk directly to Israelis or call Israel by its name that is not exactly a sign that negotiations are possible with any branch of the Brotherhood like Hamas. Still, this fact need not be a source of concern if and only if Israeli leaders and opinion maker accept the fact that there is no one to talk to now as there wasn't in 1948 and until Anwar El Sadats came to Israel. Israelis will have won this latest round of the conflict if they stop thinking that "peace" is just around the corner if only Israel were willing to negotiate with Hamas. I would suggest that Israel negotiate with the PA under Abbas and deal with Hamas only militarily. If the Egyptian Brotherhood wants to cancel the peace treaty with Israel and restart the conflict that is their affair. They will lose as quickly as Nasser did in !967. It's the dreamy and neurotic talk of "peace" that makes Israel seems weak. Who won this round, then. the party that said that it was "victorious" but agreed to a cease fire anyway. Historically Arab society needs to tell itself that it won or will win. This is part of a psychological need. Israeli society is strongest when it tells itself the truth: that their back is against the wall and that there is no alternative but to fight for its survival.

- arnon1

November 21, 2012 at 6:57pm

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"I think you're listening way too hard to the victory cheers of Hamas, " There is a lot of truth to this view.

- arnon1

November 21, 2012 at 6:59pm

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"In the coming days Israeli leaders will attempt to convince voters—election season is about to resume—that this was an Israeli victory" I've just watched Wolf Blitzer interview Netanyahu's spokesman who made no such declarations. Israelis know exactly what this little "war" (if it can be thus described) meant and what limited success it was. There are two trends emerging: Some Israelis are grateful that some peace and normalcy will prevails for a while. Some Israelis are angry that the government did not go in and finish the menace one and for all. Neither trend can actually explain what happened or what forces were being deployed behind the scenes in order to bring this about. People appear genuinely baffled and deathly worried about the future. We may be entering a phase in Jewish history which in Hebrew history books used to be described as "at the cliff of the times". (Be'tzuk Ha'ítim). It is Arab Spring all right. And it looks like Springtime for Hamas, as well. With all the implication of that this title may suggest.

- Noga

November 21, 2012 at 7:08pm

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I see hope in Morsi's engagement with the US and with Israel, and on the side of moderation. Educated people everywhere realize the planet faces huge challenges. Gaza itself, and Egypt, and Israel, all face a future in which global warming, desertization, and drought could make life very difficult. Economically, many Middle Eastern nations already face huge pressure just to provide enough food for people let alone decent jobs and a pathway to the future. Hopefully, the moderates in the region will realize that endless fighting is anathema to progress. Personally I don't Hamas as a winner here. What they proved is that it's easy to get scores of innocent people killed. That is no victory.

- Sophia

November 21, 2012 at 7:46pm

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As for Bibi: he did the right thing not to invade. What happened last time Israel invaded? Was Hamas vanquished? Did their ideology perish? No. Did Israel win politically? Absolutely not. Vanquishing Hamas is impossible militarily and for now, Islamists are popular in the ME. This will change in time I think. As it is even MB and Hezbollah have moderated. I would never have foreseen a time, in fact, when we'd call PLO moderate but they did in fact change. As the emerging powers in the ME grapple with serious issues, such as famine and drought and economics, they will focus less on attacking Israel and possibly, more on working with her and with the West because solutions to these problems demand peace and cooperation.

- Sophia

November 21, 2012 at 7:52pm

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Is there anything useful or realistic in anything Sophia has just written? She actually believes that there is a chance of a snowball in hell that Egyptians, or Arabs, will begin to worry about solving famine and global warming instead of how to exterminate Israelis?

- Noga

November 21, 2012 at 8:17pm

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Such impatience! America's worst export is the obsession over elections. I want to know what Christine LaGarde said to Morsi, when the IMF guaranteed loans of $4.8BILUSD on Nov. 20, not coincidentally the day before Morsi went for Egypt over ideology, for which I applaud him regardless. Just curious. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/us-egypt-imf-idUSBRE8AJ0LK20121120 I shall go elsewhere to check on the USNavy, but, I applaud Obama et al for the re-direct of the iconically named ships of a Marine Expeditionary Force at the critical time. I doubt we shall ever know why, but nice move.

- K2K

November 21, 2012 at 8:46pm

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Sophia "I see hope in Morsi's engagement with the US and with Israel, and on the side of moderation." Did he, Sophia, or was his 'moderation" bought? Morsi refuses to talk directly to Israelis or even to call Israel by its name. What kind of moderate is that. False hope can be more deadly than a lethal missile.

- arnon1

November 21, 2012 at 9:36pm

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This is for Sophia: "A Former Terrorist Speak Out - Israel/Palestine conflict...." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2wvqDfitLY

- arnon1

November 21, 2012 at 9:39pm

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two views of Hamas, quoted from: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Nov-21/195826-gaza-conflict-unveils-two-faces-of-hamas.ashx#axzz2Cuyj4j00 "GAZA CITY: A car drags the body of an executed "collaborator" through Gaza City, streets away from where a team of foreign dignitaries come to show solidarity with Gazans under Israeli fire. The scene served to highlight the two faces of the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas which rules the Gaza Strip. ... Gunmen executed six alleged collaborators with Israel on Tuesday, witnesses said, adding that notices were pinned to their bodies saying they had been killed by Hamas's armed wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades. ... The scene was played out a few streets from the Dallu family home where, after the roads had been washed of blood, Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniya hosted an Arab League delegation led by secretary general Nabil al-Arabi. "Here's the legitimate Palestinian prime minister Ismail Haniya," a Hamas spokesman announced on a loudspeaker, listing the guests, among them Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and his Egyptian and Saudi counterparts. "This is the prime minister rejected by Israel and the United States," he declared, as the foreign dignitaries made their way through the dense crowd under the watchful eyes of their bodyguards. ..."

- K2K

November 21, 2012 at 10:33pm

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arnon I think Morsi, as a democratically elected leader, is reflecting not only MB ideology and his personal beliefs but also those of a majority of Egyptian people. Unfortunately I don't think the "Egyptian street" is very pro-Israel. Too many decades of antisemitic propaganda have taken a toll there. Nevertheless I think he isn't stupid and sees the real problems confronting Egypt. Was he bought? Who knows. Obviously Egypt isn't in great shape economically. Beyond that though, what has Hamas really gained? There are so many hurt people, dead people and ruined infrastructure. Pointless and stupid imo. I will look at the video in a bit thanks.

- Sophia

November 21, 2012 at 10:34pm

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| Sophia "arnon I think Morsi, as a democratically elected leader, is reflecting not only MB ideology and his personal beliefs but also those of a majority of Egyptian people." Yes, of course. But then tyrants often reflect the "will of the majority" till they get tired of him and is replaced by another tyrant. Mubarak too reflected the will of the majority for a long time. He was a war hero, btw.

- arnon1

November 21, 2012 at 10:38pm

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What we should aim for in this country is to make Egypt, Gaza and other Muslim enclaves safe for people with liberal views, especially women, to express themselves without fear of retribution. btw: Sophia does the "majority" include women?

- arnon1

November 21, 2012 at 10:41pm

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Morsi is now president of a country that wants to stay bought, as it stayed bought under Sadat and Mubarak. We bought it at Camp David thirty years ago.

- ironyroad

November 21, 2012 at 11:50pm

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Hope you are right, Irony.

- arnon1

November 21, 2012 at 11:56pm

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There is no "winner" except maybe Bibi's reelect chances. The Israelis continue to pretend the world is not fundamentally changing and the alignment of trends that kept Israel dominant for the last 60 years is receding. Over the next 30 years the Turks will become the second largest European economy, Palestinians will become a majority between the Jordan River and the sea, the Arab nations will become democratic states that will be responsive to their populations, the rest of the world will no longer turn a blind eye to an apartheid situation in Palestine, and the military balance will alter as advanced technology precision guided missiles will be widespread. Meanwhile, the global Muslim population will rise to 2.2 billion, with 6 million in the US and 20 million in the EU, while the global Jewish population continues to shrink outside Israel, and the US Jews continue to dwindle from intermarriage and low fertility. Israel has two choices, either the 67 borders and two states, or a single Palestinian majority state. The option that Bibi is pursuing, perpetual subjugation, Bantustans, and whining about Hitler/Dhimmis/Al-Qaeda anytime someone makes the slightest criticism of Israel is not tenable. The Israeli right and the Likud supporters in the US love that kool-aide but the rest of the world aint drinking it. Bibi and the Likud are driving Israel over the cliff with their stupidity.

- nayyer_ali

November 22, 2012 at 1:30am

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I share Sophia's perspective. [And Noga, there is no need to insult anyone or disregard their opinions.] Who, indeed, would have imagined a time when the PLO would be considered moderate? Popular and political opinion all over the Maghreb and ME is diversifying. A little bit of freedom and opportunity goes a long way toward stimulating pragmatic thinking and collaboration. Since last visiting that part of the region -- Beirut to Damscus -- just a couple months prior to the 2006 Lebanon War, I find it very difficult to believe that the Lebanese feel their lives improved by the so-called humiliation visited on Israel in that conflict. The military half-victories and the real political victories for Hamas have only turned the clock back on their cultural, social, and economic life. The ongoing security threats of the region do not make me inclined to soon return -- not even to Tunisia or Morocco, where I have frequently travelled for business and for leisure as recently as 2009. As a result, stacks of Dinars and Dirhams languish in my foreign currency travel reserves; and planned purchases or expenditures are put on hold or diverted to other markets. The political brinksmanship continually played by the region's leaders is increasingly divorced from the desires of the populace for peace, stability, and opportunity.

- vst

November 22, 2012 at 2:29am

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I agree with Noga. Sophia, you have a good heart, but you don't know Middle Eastern Arabs. They will set the world on fire before they will give up their goal of killing Israelis/Jews. Maybe eventually they'll set the world on fire anyway. "Tribal" is the operative word here, and no people are as tribal as Middle Eastern Arabs. As nayyer_ali indicates, Israel is not innocent (no people are). But how long is it going to take the Palestinians, et al., to accept that Israel is there to stay and get on with their lives? A thousand years? The end of time?

- magboy47.

November 22, 2012 at 2:43am

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Israel won, sans doute, http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/11/20/jonathan-kay-how-israels-iron-dome-won-the-war/

- basman

November 22, 2012 at 2:44am

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Magboy, perhaps you should spend a little bit of time in some other world regions, for example the Balkans, before making a claim like "no people are as tribal as Middle Eastern Arabs."

- vst

November 22, 2012 at 6:49am

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"I share Sophia's perspective. [And Noga, there is no need to insult anyone or disregard their opinions.]" Stupid useless opinions that serve no purpose except to make the person uttering them feel good and virtuous about themselves absolutely need to be disregarded. It is this kind of opinion (somehow Middle Eastern Arabs will find their better instincts and kumbaya will triumph) that made it possible for Jews to walk into the gas chambers. I know it is highly unpopular for Jews to remember this tiny event in our history and how it came about, but unfortunately these are the stakes today and it's no use pretending that Arabs are not seeking , or are relenting in, their primal objective of destroying Israel. Hope such as Sophia's is not only false and delusional. It narcotises. It encourages people to make light of the kind of exterminationalist hatred that Israel is the target of. Let's wait and see what steep price Obama's support will cost Israel. BTW, magboy, Israelis have not done nor ever will do even a fraction of a fraction of the evil that other nations have done in their respective histories. And the little that is done is done in order to prevent a much greater evil. The problem is that for most people in this world, the greater evil being the disappearance of a Jewish state is not considered such a great evil as to merit even the sort of defense that Israel mounts. All you need is have a look at the commenters here and how they gush over Morsi's "leadership" or attempt to cleanse this odious creature, Hamas.

- Noga

November 22, 2012 at 6:53am

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This war is un-winnable by Israel, short of a prolonged ground campaign with thousand plus civilian casualties. The sad truth is that there is no way to destroy the missile arsenal from the air. Israel has learn this truth during the war with Hizb Allah and with during the 2009 war with Hamas. However, I believe this kind of campaign will never be allowed by the "civilized nations of the world". Israel will be immediately crucified, compared to Nazis and the Butcher of Damascus and ordered to stop before completing the mission. For some reason, the thousands of missiles lobbed by Hamas and Hizb Allah on Israel are dismissed as minor infractions or disregarded completely by the international community. I tended to assign this to antisemitism but now I think it is some sort of cognitive dissonance, a distorted perspective. It will required some truly catastrophic attack by Hamas or Iran to allow Israel to release all the force of the IDF. Short of this, all we can expect is the "grass mowing" from time to time.

- rmakover@swbell.net-OLD

November 22, 2012 at 12:56pm

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makover, if Hamas continues its rockets attacks the US at least will support a ground campaign in Gaza. What worries me, is the simple minded belief that one can fight tyrannies without casualties. It's a war between Israel and an illiberal domain. Liberalism didn't just come to the West through the ballot box. It came after prolonged civil wars and wars between nations in Europe and the US. It won't be any different in the Mid East. Concentrating on casualties only is short sighted. In this many NGO's and many news outlets are complicit in the perpetuation of illiberal and deadly regimes.

- arnon1

November 22, 2012 at 3:11pm

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makover: they call them rockets, as if they are as harmless as firecrackers. The meme then fixates on body count, rarely mentioning one million Israelis in safe rooms/bunkers. I made the mistake of tuning into CNN at 10 am. The announcer wanted to focus on Black Friday (the USA dementia I think of as Rugby-Shopping, with casualties). But, she had to first cover the ceasefire. CNN made it clear - the conflict was started by Israel's targeted assassination of Jabari! All the previous CNN coverage was forgotten in favor of "Israel started it!" btw, that "mow the lawn" has also been used to paint Israel as callous. Personally, I suggest Israel rethink that term. Lawn suggests lovely green, tidy, weed-free. Hamas is like crabgrass, which kills the good fescue grass, leaves a wasteland.

- K2K

November 22, 2012 at 5:14pm

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As (a) Fatah is pretty discredited in the eyes of Gazans, (b) people are afraid of crossing the Hamas power structure, (c) other potential political developments have been suppressed, and (d) there's a natural tribal tendency to stick with what's "ours" especially if it feeds a kind of all-in-this-together resentment, I would register some skepticism as to whether any "liberal" or equivalent challenge to Hamas can ever see any daylight. At least in the foreseeable future.

- ironyroad

November 22, 2012 at 5:31pm

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" I would register some skepticism as to whether any "liberal" or equivalent challenge to Hamas can ever see any daylight. At least in the foreseeable future." Not in the immediate future but this should be our goal and the goal of the media in assessing the meaning of the struggle and not the tendentious notion of body-counts. In this bizarre last scenario whoever loses more bodies wins.

- arnon1

November 22, 2012 at 6:14pm

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Happy Turkey day, everybody.

- arnon1

November 22, 2012 at 6:19pm

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As arnon said!

- ironyroad

November 22, 2012 at 7:19pm

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Pumpkin pie for all! fwiw, perhaps Meshaal is evolving. Worth the read: Nov 21, 2012 "A rare chance to take in Gaza" By Victor Kotsev http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NK21Ak02.html Meanwhile, Morsi's new nickname is "Pharoah" (see the news). And, Jordan needs attention.

- K2K

November 22, 2012 at 7:46pm

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Dan Margalit is a veteran and well seasoned journalist and TV anchor. This article reflects a very sober realistic assessment of the campaign: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=2921 "Operation Pillar of Defense was crowned a sour success. The public wanted more than the government had promised. Reservists, unlike any others in the world, were more eager to make sacrifices than the government was eager to put them in harm's way. There is a chance for quiet, there are no delusions, and as Vice Prime Minister Silvan Shalom confirmed Wednesday, the real test will be Israel's response to the first Hamas rocket that violates the cease-fire. "

- Noga

November 22, 2012 at 11:39pm

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Yes Noga, Margalit offers a sober assessment of the campaign. But there is also the small item below. Is it really beneficial for Israel to succumb to blackmail of Muslim Brother in Cairo? "Israel received warnings from Washington and Cairo that its peace treaties with both Egypt and Jordan would be “endangered” if it sent ground forces into Gaza to confront Hamas this week, Israel’s Channel 2 reported Thursday. The warnings played “a central role” in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to agree to a ceasefire on Wednesday without having ordered a much-anticipated ground incursion. The warnings were conveyed to Mossad chief Tamir Pardo, who played a key behind-the-scenes role in the ceasefire talks, the report said. Channel 2 also reported that Egypt’s President Mohammad Morsi rejected an American request to speak to Netanyahu as he mediated the negotiations that on Wednesday brought eight days of conflict between Israel and Hamas to a halt. So firm was Morsi in rejecting the notion of speaking to his Israeli opposite number, the TV report claimed, that the Americans didn’t even bother telling Netanyahu about their attempt to foster direct contact."

- rmakover@swbell.net-OLD

November 23, 2012 at 7:46am

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It looks like Obama and Morsi understand each other pretty well, then.

- Noga

November 23, 2012 at 8:48am

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I remember in Annapolis Livni complaining that no Arab representative shook her hand. This is the both the official and gut-level Arab-Muslim attitude towards Jews and now it is playing a role openly in foreign policy decisions and the way the USA conducts itself vis a vis Israel and the Middle East. Well, we have reached the time of "sticking it to Israel" as a foreign policy principle (as ironyroad so eloquently expressed it somewhere in these threads).

- Noga

November 23, 2012 at 9:06am

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Ironyroad expressed it eloquently as a way of speculatively describing the psychological buy-in by ordinary Gazans who don't like Hamas but who have essentially been the victims of the blockade. It's not the best term to describe artificial diplomatic rituals on the part of Arab officials.

- ironyroad

November 23, 2012 at 1:04pm

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Not to be too technocratic about it, but the biggest winner so far is Raytheon, or whatever other defense contractor is building Iron Dome. This was the sort of prolonged, live-fire training exercise most weapon system designers can only dream of. They got to shoot at lots and lots of incoming targets, secure in the knowledge that even when they missed, the missiles weren't accurate engough to hit much of anything anyway. The engineers, both Israeli and American, will be poring over the trajectory and intercept data for months to come, and learning from it, I'm sure. Certainly, the Iranian missiles will get more accurate with time. But that increasing accuracy won't make them any harder to hit. Advantage to the defense. I wonder if the Iranian military understands that.

- gwcross

November 23, 2012 at 1:35pm

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thanks for news makover. I thought it an achievement that Morsi said "Israel" :) A new front for Iron Dome is...India: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-eyes-Israels-Iron-Dome-to-counter-Pak-puppets/articleshow/17329499.cms "...In addition, Pakistan has developed a tactical nuclear weapon like the Nasr, which is a solid fuelled battlefield range ballistic missile. ..." Yikes!

- K2K

November 23, 2012 at 3:14pm

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The engineering and the development firm for the Iron Dome is Raphael Industries, an offshoot of the Israeli Aircraft Industries. And I am sure the Iranians and Hiza Allah is taking notes, where the rockets fell, which one missed, how to overwhelm this technology. Iran is an ancient civilization,with first class scientists and although I think that now they are still a paper tiger, not for long. Irony, I agree with you that the sentiment "to stick it to the enemy" is universal, I do have to admit however, that I have not seen many groups so excitable, so susceptible to any suggestions of conspiracy, so totally enveloped in the idea of revenge as the Palestinians. I know of course that this is not everybody but it is a very large number, maybe a majority. I just don't know of many societies in which an individual will pick up a knife one morning and go out to kill somebody on the street, a passer by, a total stranger to avenge some real or imagined insult to his group or to his religion. It's almost surreal, like "I'm gonna go out and kill me some Jew..." kind of sentiment. I must say that I simply cannot fathom this kind of emotion, its totally alien to me. I can understand a direct revenge against a perpetrator but nothing like this.

- rmakover@swbell.net-OLD

November 23, 2012 at 4:02pm

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Irony, talking about excitable boys reminds me of Warren Zevon's master piece. It's kind of applicable to our discussion. Remember this? Well, he went down to dinner in his Sunday best Excitable boy, they all said And he rubbed the pot roast all over his chest Excitable boy, they all said Well, he's just an excitable boy He took in the four a.m. show at the Clark Excitable boy, they all said And he bit the usherette's leg in the dark Excitable boy, they all said Well, he's just an excitable boy He took little Suzie to the Junior Prom Excitable boy, they all said And he raped her and killed her, then he took her home Excitable boy, they all said Well, he's just an excitable boy

- rmakover@swbell.net-OLD

November 23, 2012 at 4:12pm

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| gwcross "Not to be too technocratic about it, but the biggest winner so far is Raytheon, or whatever other defense contractor is building Iron Dome." Good post, As I said earlier India seems to be interested in the technology.

- arnon1

November 23, 2012 at 4:30pm

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Noga still wants to see Obama as the bad guy. It's as if she thinks that Obama told Morsi not to shake Netanyahu's hand. In any case, Morsi himself is in trouble politically.

- arnon1

November 23, 2012 at 4:33pm

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How is Morsi in trouble arnon? I see his opposition in trouble since he is now Pharaoh, isn't he?

- rmakover@swbell.net-OLD

November 23, 2012 at 4:38pm

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Violence breaks out across Egypt as protesters decry Mohammed Morsi's constitutional 'coup' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/9699801/Violence-breaks-out-across-Egypt-as-protesters-decry-Mohammed-Morsis-constitutional-coup.html here is more "Morsi opponents start sit-in in Cairo's Tahrir Square (AFP) – 1 hour ago CAIRO — Opponents of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi began a one-week sit-in protest in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Friday to demand the Islamist leader retract a declaration that grants him broad powers. "All revolutionary political forces have agreed to begin a sit-in starting Friday," the Popular Current led by former presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabbahi said in a statement, calling for a mass protest on Tuesday. So far, 26 political movements and parties have agreed to take part in the sit-in, organisers told AFP. On Thursday, Morsi assumed temporary sweeping powers, allowing him to issue laws and decrees that cannot be challenged by any court. Supporters say the move will cut back a turbulent and seemingly endless transition to democracy, but outraged critics say he has now become a dictator." http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j0FxUhM4sb9J5HhPzRWv_6EgVrYw?docId=CNG.96b61bfd6d084737b3e4aa30d0d41dd3.671

- arnon1

November 23, 2012 at 4:42pm

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makeover -- you left out those memorable final lines, also not so unrelated to political morbidity and repetition: After ten long years they let him out of the home Excitable boy, they all said And he dug up her grave and built a cage with her bones Excitable boy, they all said Well, he's just an excitable boy Zevon also had a talent for political-thriller songs like "Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner" and "Lawyers Guns and Money."

- ironyroad

November 23, 2012 at 4:49pm

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arnon: Israeli reshet bet radio reports about 100-150 demonstrators, that's bubkes in Egypt. I think there is no threat to his consolidation of power. He appoints judges, he tries and retries whom ever he wants, he is flushed with victory having US secretary of State, head of the Mossad and president of Turkey come to kiss his ring, even Mahatma Ghandi would become proud as peacock. But who knows, maybe he is a great leader, I hope I am wrong and you are right.

- rmakover@swbell.net-OLD

November 23, 2012 at 4:53pm

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irony: I left those lines on purpose, I thought they might offend the more delicate souls on this blog. Yes, I remember those happy days in Redondo Beach. When Spaniada was cheap and Ganja was cheaper. My favorite was always Lawyers Guns and Money and of course Warewolf of London. I am glad you remember.

- rmakover@swbell.net-OLD

November 23, 2012 at 4:59pm

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Right now, I'd say Makover that no one knows what is going on behind the scenes. It's all speculation. As for the number of protesters, many of them like Al Baredei (sp) are not insignificant players. What's remarkable isn't the presence of demonstrators at all.

- arnon1

November 23, 2012 at 5:15pm

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More on Morsi: "Clashes Break Out After Morsi Seizes New Power in Egypt" By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK, KAREEM FAHIM and ALAN COWELL " "CAIRO — Opponents of President Mohamed Morsi were reported to have set fire to his party’s offices in several Egyptian cities on Friday in a spasm of protest and clashes after he granted himself broad powers above any court declaring himself the guardian of Egypt‘s revolution, and used his new authority to order the retrial of Hosni Mubarak. In the Mediterranean city of Alexandria, the opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party clashed with followers of Mr. Morsi, an Islamist, who won Western and regional plaudits only days ago for brokering a cease-fire to halt eight days of lethal exchanges between Israeli forces and militants in the Gaza Strip. Mr. Morsi, Egypt’s first democratically elected president, portrayed his decree assuming the new powers as an attempt to fulfill popular demands for justice and protect the transition to a constitutional democracy. He said it was necessary to overcome gridlock and competing interests. But the unexpected breadth of the powers he seized raised immediate fears that he might become a new strongman." http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/24/world/middleeast/amid-protest-egypts-leader-defends-his-new-powers.html?hpw&pagewanted=print&_r=0 "On the Web site of the state newspaper Al Ahram, a prominent jurist, Salah Eissa, urged citizens “to take to the street and die, because Egypt is lost,” adding, “immunizing the decisions of the president with a constitutional declaration is a forgery and a fraud.” Nathan J. Brown, a scholar of the Egyptian legal system at George Washington University, summed up the overall message: “I, Morsi, am all powerful. And in my first act as being all powerful, I declare myself more powerful still. But don’t worry — it’s just for a little while.”"

- arnon1

November 23, 2012 at 5:25pm

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tsk tsk Oh ye of little faith.

- Noga

November 23, 2012 at 6:04pm

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"..meet the new boss. Same as the old boss..." Will suffer the same fate?

- arnon1

November 23, 2012 at 6:10pm

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The Muslim Brotherhood has taken power in Egypt. They won't give it up. Whether Morsi remains their Pharaonic front man doesn't matter. He is only one man and not a charismatic one at that. Given his ideology and the turbulence of his world, he is not a dependable partner for peace. Obama threw him a ball and he prefers to run with it because he needs the money to keep his kingdom. The problem is Islam, a religion of perpetual war and prosyletism because its goal is to impose itself on the whole world. Only European imperialism and restless dhimmi subjects stopped them for the past few centuries. Only the British stopped Islam from completely digesting India. Pakistan is merely a continuation of Islamic conquest in the subcontinent. That's why the arms race there continues. Today Islam aggressively pursues soft power through sponsorship of international blasphemy laws aimed at protecting Islam from public criticism. Utopian calm will not soon come to Arab Israeli relations because the destruction of Israel has become the objective of Muslims, who have waged the most successful propaganda campaign in history against a small people. Iran is supplying Hamas Gaza with ever more advanced weapons in order to pursue a multi-front war with Israel. The most effective response in the immediate future is to disable Iran's nukes and decapitate its regime. Obama must either permit the Israelis to put out Iran's nukes or do it himself soon.

- amidut

November 23, 2012 at 7:05pm

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Roland searched the continent for the man who had done him in, He found him in Mombasa in a barroom drinking gin. Roland aimed his Thompson gun, he never said a word, He blew Van Owen's body from there to Johannesburg

- ironyroad

November 23, 2012 at 7:38pm

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Ashura started at sundown. btw, Turkey's request for Patriot missile defense is to defend against longer range ballistic missiles, which means ? Raytheon had something to do with Patriots, which were developed in the USA. Iron Dome is DoD partly funded but all Israeli technologies as cited above. Interesting that South Korea and India are interested in Iron Dome. "Coalition of Those with Bad Neighbors"

- K2K

November 23, 2012 at 9:41pm

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irony and malahat: You were also Zevon's fans? I always thought he was such an underrated musician. He didn't easily fit any niche. I got his every vinyl LP, the problem is I don't have a player anymore so I listen on Pandora. amidut, I wan't say this cease fire was forced on Israel, but I will say that the Israeli Egyptian Jordanian peace treaties were weighting heavily on this little kerfuffle, with the US and European pressure to bear it left no other choice. Israeli radio is reporting this evening that as of today the Gazan farmers are already cultivating the fields within the 300 meter range of the fence and the Gazan fishermen are within the 6 miles rather than 3 miles allowed before. In addition, the Hamas leadership was quick to publicize this morning that nowhere is in the treaty it is written that they have no right to rearm and in fact they are intending to start doing so immediately. Iran already informed Islamic Jihad that it intends to rearm and replace all they have lost. (They are unhappy with Hamas). So it looks like we will be in the same situation in about a year or two, give or take few months. And I agree with you amidut, the Muslim Brotherhood will not give up it's power, it is here to stay no matter what any of the CNN talking heads say.

- rmakover@swbell.net-OLD

November 24, 2012 at 11:03am

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malahat: I like that. Thanks.

- rmakover@swbell.net-OLD

November 24, 2012 at 11:27am

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If true, is this wise?

- Noga

November 24, 2012 at 8:23pm

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It seems a little more likely that Obama has promised Morsi specific extra assistance for Egyptian anti-smuggling operations, without the kind of flag-flying drama the DEBKA article suggests. But it's not crazy to imagine that Morsi now knows more about Iranian intentions and operations than he did before, and that the lifting of Suez transit restrictions for Iranian naval vessels last year, for example, might now be seen as a wrong move.

- ironyroad

November 24, 2012 at 11:42pm

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I just don't believe this is true. Debka is not a reliable source. I have not read this in any other media outlet, Israeli or foreign. If this is true, it is certainly a coup. Hamas statements and behavior shows nothing of the kind and Egyptian President is too busy consolidating power to contradict them. I must see it to believe it.

- rmakover@swbell.net-OLD

November 25, 2012 at 8:39am

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The US has had a military presence in Sinai since 1979 "...to supervise the implementation of the security provisions of the Egyptian-Israeli Treaty of Peace and employ best efforts to prevent any violation of its terms" In 1981, it officially became a multi-national force outside the auspices of the UN: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multinational_Force_and_Observers Remember this? "...September 2012 Dozens of armed militants attacked North Camp on Friday 14 September 2012, breaking down a wall of the facility housing the MFO headquarters, setting fire to vehicles and facilities. MFO soldiers defended the base and there was an exchange of fire. ..." It would not be so difficult to expand this force to try to stop the weapons smuggling et al in the Sinai.

- K2K

November 25, 2012 at 8:58am

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Raytheon IS involved with Israel in next generation missile defense: http://bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2012/11/24/israel-developing-next-generation-missile-defense-system-with-help-from-raytheon/m99cDIuSX8gukMhuDxcj4L/story.html "...Unlike the homemade, rudimentary rockets used by Hamas, thousands of sophisticated missiles with greater ranges and payloads are being stockpiled in Lebanon by Hezbollah, another militant group. Israel’s leaders, who consider these weapons and longer-range missiles from Iran potential threats, have turned to engineers from Waltham-based Raytheon Co. to help develop the next-generation interceptor missile. A critical test of the system, called the Stunner, is set for Israel’s Negev Desert in coming days. Israelis are counting on the missile to become the centerpiece of their defense shield, known as David’s Sling. ..."

- K2K

November 25, 2012 at 3:13pm

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According to Simply Jews' interpretation, a lot of drama and arm twisting took place behind the scenes and Hamas'claoms to victory are not completely unfounded: http://simplyjews.blogspot.ca/2012/11/the-pillar-of-defense-fiasco.html#disqus_thread "After a painful concession on Iran, offered by Bibi to Obama (or, rather, forced by Obama on Bibi) before the US elections, which concession's details are still hidden by the veil of secrecy, another political defeat by Bibi raised its ugly head, according to Rob: _________________ But then the Obama Administration intervened. They were perfectly happy for Israel to go in to Gaza and take out Hamas, but insisted that they then turn Gaza over to the Palestinian Authority. This was supposed to strengthen PA President Mahmoud Abbas as 'Palestine's savior' . [And] as a kicker, President Obama insisted that Israel immediately declare a Palestinian State in Gaza and most of Judea and Samaria, including areas currently under Israeli sovereignty from which the Jewish residents would then be removed. These were also to be turned over to Abbas. If the Israelis were unwilling to have the IDF do Mahmoud Abbas' dirty work for him and then give up large areas populated by Jews, then the Obama Administration told the Israelis the U.S. would not back an IDF ground assault in Gaza. So they Israelis took the ceasefire, essentially meaning that Hamas is going to be left in place to regroup and fight another day. And can claim a victory. _________________________________________________________ I don't know how precise the above version of events is in its details, but by and large it is the only one that makes any sense."

- Noga

November 25, 2012 at 5:35pm

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Tom Friedman's commentary today in the NYT made a sort of sense. He argues that what we just watched was Hamas testing Morsi by dangling a question/warning as to whether there was really a new pro-Islamist orientation in Cairo governing circles or just some decorative rhetoric hung over the strategic status quo, and Morsi responding finally by opting for Egyptian national interests rather than transnational Muslim Brotherhood ideology. To the extent that that reading is a reasonable one (and obviously it's just speculative), I'd say that Obama and Clinton did some impressive footwork in nudging Morsi toward his decision, and that Hamas may well have left the table with much less than they hoped to gain.

- ironyroad

November 25, 2012 at 6:47pm

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http://townhall.com/columnists/michaelbrown/2012/11/23/not_enough_dead_jews/page/full/ "...Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pointed out that, “For us, every time there are civilian casualties, that’s an operational failure. For them, every time there are civilian casualties, that’s an operational success.” In fact, an Israeli soldier cannot leave base without having in his or her possession the Israel Defense Forces Code of Ethics, including values like these: “The IDF serviceman will, above all, preserve human life, in the recognition of its supreme value and will place himself or others at risk solely to the extent required to carry out his mission. “The sanctity of life in the eyes of the IDF servicemen will find expression in all of their actions, in deliberate and meticulous planning, in safe and intelligent training and in proper execution of their mission. In evaluating the risk to self and others, they will use the appropriate standards and will exercise constant care to limit injury to life to the extent required to accomplish the mission.” Yet so much of the world still sees Israel as the evil aggressor, ..."

- K2K

November 25, 2012 at 7:07pm

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"Yet so much of the world still sees Israel as the evil aggressor, ..." and tries to find a silver lining in an uncouth Islamist strongman such as Mursi. I'm surprised Tom Friedman even has a job. Where was the last time he was right about anything?

- Noga

November 25, 2012 at 7:20pm

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wait until Wednesday. Egypt's stock exchange dropped 9.5% today. The duelling million-men marches and the judiciary strike are scheduled for Tuesday. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/59123/Egypt/Politics-/Brotherhoods-Shura-Council-chairman-criticises-Mor.aspx "Brotherhood's Shura Council chairman criticises Morsi declaration: Chairman of Egypt's Shura Council - and member of Brotherhood's FJP - takes all by surprise by voicing opposition to President Morsi's divisive constitutional declaration" Gamal Essam El-Din , Sunday 25 Nov 2012 "... "We had hopes that President Morsi would put the constitutional declaration before a national referendum," Fahmi said. He also argued that the declaration "has severely divided the nation into Islamists and civilians." Fahmi urged Morsi to conduct a national dialogue with all forces to put an end to the crisis triggered by the declaration. Fahmi’s comments came as a surprise to many, given that not only is the chairman of the Shura Council a leading member of the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) – the political arm of Muslim Brotherhood from which Morsi hails – but he is also a relative of Morsi himself. ..." [the entire article was very interesting. Fractious politics. But, organized into political parties. all this to avoid using the term premature speculation, what Tom Friedman does for a very nice living, as do so many pundits. ]

- K2K

November 25, 2012 at 8:49pm

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Broadly, I think Friedman has been right about the energy/education/investment conundrum that the U.S. faces, and in that he's streets ahead of other pundits who know very little about anything beyond Beltway gossip. Even if that were not the case, however, his argument about Hamas and Morsi is not easily dismissed.

- ironyroad

November 25, 2012 at 10:01pm

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"Trapped by a failed strategic ‘conceptzia’ " By BENJAMIN KERSTEIN 11/25/2012 22:26 http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=293409 "The writer is an author and editor living in Tel Aviv. His latest book is Diary of an Anti-Chomskyite. " Well, I knew he was writing a book, but had no idea of the title. I am stunned by Kerstein's viewpoint, no, not really, just stunned that he published it in JPost. I can almost imagine the duel with sabers between Kerstein and Beinart. if irony is reading this - the NYT paywall broke my already diminished habit of daily reading the NYT. I can not comment on Friedman's Hamas Morsi argument. Just stopped finding him interesting when he deigned to explain the economy a few years ago, maybe 2008. He skims for ideas, and is good at that, so is Zakaria. Does not make their conclusions worthy, or not.

- K2K

November 25, 2012 at 10:19pm

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Friedman's argument about Hamas and Morsi may not be easily dismissed, by you, who like to believe that these people can actually behave rationally. We'll wait and see how Friedman's prophecies pan out. I think you don't realize you are dealing with the unknowable unknowables. You haven't a clue how these people think, what they calculate, what their interests actually are.

- Noga

November 25, 2012 at 10:43pm

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Who are "these people"? Why would I, an astute and canny observer of world politics, not have a "clue" about them? And why in the name of Yassir Arafat's electric shaver would their interests be impervious to analysis? A footnote: Friedman was, broadly speaking, quite prescient about the Arab Spring, having written often before 2011 about the push for responsibility and accountability in many N. African and ME countries as well as about the potential chaos and wrong paths that they would probably go down before something on the lines of a stable democratic system could emerge.

- ironyroad

November 25, 2012 at 11:32pm

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K2K: Who the f... is Kerstein? Where did he learn "how to win wars". This is the time to think coldly and not emotionally, yes, the emotions screamed to "show" them, to punish Hamas, to go in and root out everybody but the correct, the logical thing to do was to stay put. I remember when Sharon was elected Prime Minister one of the journalists came to him and said: "Arik, you said you were going to invade here you going to attack there and now we are doing nothing" and Sharon answered: "From this chair my son, everything looks different"

- rmakover@swbell.net-OLD

November 26, 2012 at 7:32am

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makover: Kerstein is a writer whose blog caught my interest a few years ago. Very good writer. I wrote here I was stunned by his viewpoint, but not surprised as it does reflect what is being expressed by some who are worn out/infuriated by those 'rockets', meant to daily terrorize southern Israel. Halevi's title here is "did Israel win its latest war?, and Kerstein's opinion is one (of so many) answer. Considering what Hamas has wrought in Gaza for five years, one wonders why anyone believes Hamas is a legitimate government. Has Hamas now become more legitimate than the PA? Seems so, but I take some comfort in knowing that Egypt is competing with the palestinians for foreign aid, and Egypt will take every penny if they can. Certainly Kerstein's blast has no correlation with Ehud Barak's announcement he is retiring after the election. Maybe Caroline Glick's scathing indictment of Barak hit home: "The trap that Arik built" November 23, 2012, 5:34 AM http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2012/11/the-trap-that-arik-built.php I thought it interesting how the day after the ceasefire incident in the border area ended, even tho one man was killed by an IDF bullet. What struck me was how well dressed the young men were. I figure the reason Hamas wanted to get this incident off the airwaves was the fear that Egyptians, half of whom live on less than two dollars a day, might discover that no one is starving to death in Gaza.

- K2K

November 26, 2012 at 8:30am

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clarifying my comment "Considering what Hamas has wrought in Gaza for five years, one wonders why anyone believes Hamas is a legitimate government." I was in the Gaza as a Singapore on the Med camp. Create a de facto state with economic development as priority #1. Instead of urban redevelopment based on missile launching site design. I still have hopes that Saudi Arabia will turn Gaza into a giant, missile and rocket-free, oil refinery, even if it would spoil those beautiful beaches. As always, follow the aid money...

- K2K

November 26, 2012 at 8:48am

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Who are "these people"? The Ikhwan " Why would I, an astute and canny observer of world politics, not have a "clue" about them?" That's why. You actually imagine you can understand these people's primary assumptions and interests, because you have knowledge of how "world politics" works. You are like one of the Athenians at the butt of Socrates's irony. There was a time in history when many people thought they understood about world politics and interests and analysis, and much to their surprise, they found out soon enough how mistaken they were about their savvy.

- Noga

November 26, 2012 at 10:30am

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I just meant that I wasn't sure if "these people" referred to Hamas, Gazans in general, or Morsi and the MB. I think it's dangerous to assume that all other assumptions and interests are subject to the same framework of principles and values as one's own, there I completely agree; but there's also a danger in turning them into some eternally enigmatic and mysteriously threatening complex that can't be understood. That's a recipe for either massive over-reaction or passivity.

- ironyroad

November 26, 2012 at 12:33pm

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The moderate Syria’s new opposition head: http://www.timesofisrael.com/syrian-opposition-leader-calls-zionism-a-cancerous-movement/

- Noga

November 26, 2012 at 4:01pm

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