THE PLANK OCTOBER 29, 2008
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My colleague John Judis is starting to show some concern about the election. Noam Scheiber blew past concern a little while ago, just reached angst, and seems to be heading in the direction of full-blown panic. And while I take some comfort in the repeated reassurances of Nate Silver, whose instincts have proven impeccable this election cycle, I'm following John and Noam down the worry path.
For a while now, I've thought Obama's lead in the polls was bound to shrink. And what I just saw on television makes that seem even more likely.
It was a clip from McCain's speech in Miami. Here, taken from the prepared remarks, is what he said:
Senator Obama believes in redistributing wealth, not in policies that grow our economy and create jobs. He said that even though lower taxes on investment help our economy, he favors higher taxes on investment for quote "fairness." There's nothing "fair" about driving our economy into the ground. We all suffer when that happens, and that is the problem with Senator Obama's approach to our economy. He is more interested in controlling wealth than in creating it, in redistributing money instead of spreading opportunity. I am going to create wealth for all Americans, by creating opportunity for all Americans.
Senator Obama is running to be Redistributionist in Chief. I'm running to be Commander in Chief. Senator Obama is running to spread the wealth. I'm running to create more wealth. Senator Obama is running to punish the successful. I'm running to make everyone successful.
Obama's surge in the polls over the last few weeks reflected a lot of factors, obviously. But a big one was the contrast in rhetoric. While Obama was hammering way about economic insecurity, McCain was constantly shifting his focus to issues like Bill Ayers and Obama's alleged support for terrorism. Now McCain, too, is focussing relentleslly on the economy.
It also seems like McCain has tweaked his message on the economy, at least in emphasis. Previously, McCain's primary argument was a simple pitch to middle class Americans: Obama will raise your taxes, even though you are struggling already.
But that didn't work so well, in part because voters had become convinced Obama's tax plan did more for the non-wealthy than McCain's did. So lately McCain has been focusing on a different part of his argument, one that was more implicit than explicit until now: Raising taxes will chill the economy for the sake of redistributing wealth. Thus, we get the line above: "is more interested in controlling wealth than in creating it."
Substantively, I don't think McCain's argument is right. The sorts of investments Obama proposes--on infrastructure, education, energy independence, and health care--are precisely what we need both to stimulate short-term growth and create the foundation for long-term prosperity. Paying for those inevitably requires higher taxes for at least some people, at some point in the future if not right away. (That's why I wish Obama weren't promising so much tax relief, at least permanently.)
Right or wrong, though, McCain's argument is both more focused and more relevant than it has been for a while. This is bound to improve his poll numbers. The question is by how much.
--Jonathan Cohn
FOLLOW THE DISCUSSION:
Judis (10/28): Start Popping The Corks
Scheiber (10/28): Why I'm Still Sweating An Obama Victory
Judis (10/29): More Cork Popping
Scheiber (10/29): Now John Judis Is Scaring *Me*
56 comments
Agree. If McCain concentrates on this message, a consistent winner; and highlights Obama's consistent cluelessness in terms of the strategic importance of Iraq, he'll have a shot. If he'd been doing this from the beginning, he'd be in the lead now.
- Robert Powell
October 29, 2008 at 2:09pm
Is this everyone here's first election? Watch Obama's numbers -- not McCain's. If those go down, then there is something to think about. If McCain's starts going up, big deal. Did anyone think McCain was only going to get 42% of the vote as he has often shown up in the polls; or even 46%? Come on. If this is a 51-48 election like 2004 but reversed, that is mighty nice. And, most of these polls are only useful if you understand their methodology.
And, finally, this is an electoral vote contest. I find it extremely hard for McCain to prevail given the map and Obama's ground game. So buck up; cheer up; keep fighting; and don't forget that the goal is to win -- I don't care if it is by one vote, not necessarily to decimate the other side (which, of course, would be nice).
- tgolomb
October 29, 2008 at 2:33pm
Actually, the polls just as might as well widen as shrink. McCain is sounding exactly the same as Bush did in 2000 and 2004, and the same as the Republicans did against Clinton. Just how is McCain going to create wealth? Capital gains tax cuts? Well, you have to have Capitals gains for that to take effect. McCain is just making empty promises without any proposals to back them up. Hell, the Republicans used the exact same arguments 2 years ago and got crushed.
John McCain thinks wealth is only for the wealthy, he is more interested in being Commander-in-chief than being steward of the economy. The Republicans have already driven the economy into the ground, using the exact same policies that John McCain is proposing. He is more interested in continuing on redistributing income upwards, by advocating the wealthy pay no taxes whatsoever on some kinds of income.
Anyway, I can go on. The only thing that can save McCain is Obama is black, nothing else.
The media will report the polls are tightening because without a horse race, there will be no ratings. But these long lines in all of the early voting states, and reports coming out of them, coupled with Obama's overwhelming advantage in money and the ground game to get to the polls make it more likely that people will be expressing suprise next week at how big Obama's win was, not how close McCain has gotten.
McCain has less than 6 million left, Obama has, what, over 100 million? Please, give me an effing break already.
- blackton
October 29, 2008 at 2:38pm
Another Reason the Polls Could Tighten :
People will find out that Obama is a fraud:
The value of the AVS system is to deny Card Not Present transactions (CNP) which are suspicious. This protects the merchant against charge backs for bad transactions. What is interesting to me is that the merchant acquirer has knowingly violated a basic CNP fraud prevention technique to accommodate a merchant (Obama Campaign). I think that both the Associations (VISA & MasterCard) would be highly interested in looking at the merchant acquirer that was processing these transactions. The value of ignoring the AVS responses is that multiple invalid transactions may be made without fear of being rejected by the authorization systems. This means that the real owner of the credit card account is willing to allow multiple transactions to be made on the account using different names and addresses that under normal conditions would be denied. The merchant acquirer has a complete listing of all transactions done and it would be very interesting to see how many transactions were conducted on the same account number using different names. I would think that this would be a Federal violation under the current campaign funding laws.
Thanks to Team Obama, millions of people now have to wonder whether they’ve been victimized by credit thieves. Some of us wonder if the thieves aren’t really working at Team Obama in the first place.
hotair.com/.../credit-card-experts-explain-the-extent-of-obamas-deception
- jacobt1
October 29, 2008 at 2:59pm
Look where McCain will be campaigning: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, Virginia. His new message will help raise the turnout in traditionally Republican strongholds in these states, but will not affect Obama's strength in metro Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, northeastern Ohio and northern Virgina. And I don't think he's doing much in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.
- drozenson
October 29, 2008 at 3:04pm
Not seeing the need to panic based on this speech. They've been calling Obama a socialist for weeks. It's not working. This speech isn't bad, but McCain has delivered many not-so-bad speeches. To say that a new stump speech few will actually see and that says substantively what McCain has been saying for some time without success is a potential game changer strikes me as pretty silly (especially on the day of the Obama infomercial, one of the chief aims of which, I'm sure, will be to knock down just such arguments). I sense a lot of reaching going on here. Ooo, McCain has a punchier speech! Ooo, the undecideds could break 80 percent for McCain! (No, they couldn't; that's absurd.) No complacency, etc., but come on! *Plausible* theories of a McCain path to victory only, please!
- jhildner
October 29, 2008 at 3:12pm
Good God I can't wait for this election to be over. If for no other reason than to be spared the perpetual worry and hand-wringing of TNR's staff. The bipolar display on the Plank and The Stump is enough to make anyone crazy, one day "McCain is Toast!" the next it's "Why McCain Will Win! Your Obama Celebration is Premature!!!". I know we're 21 months into this thing, just step back, breathe and take a second. For someone to write "[f]or a while now, I've thought Obama's lead in the polls was bound to shrink" and then act like Chicken Little when that comes to pass is the height of intellectual disconnect.
The polls have tightened, to be sure. What was a high single-digit/low double-digit lead a week ago (nationally), now looks like a 5-6 point lead. Smaller to be sure, but still rather substantial. More importantly, just a little over a month ago, people around here were praying for a "large" lead of 5-6 points. This election is going to be closer than I thought a week or two ago, and does give a moment of pause (and, in my weaker moments, concern), but it's not exactly like the Apocalypse is upon us. Day-to-day fluctuations are to be expected, and to an extent, the race may be trending back to the mean, but that still equals a (very likely) Obama victory.
Step back, see the forest for the trees and relax.
- mundye
October 29, 2008 at 3:17pm
"Black communist! Black communist!"
- WoodyBombay
October 29, 2008 at 3:20pm
Furthering a point that drozenson makes above. Look at where McCain will be campaigning: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, Virginia. What is true of all these states, save one? Each is a state Bush won, and some rather handily. In other words, outside of Pennsylvania (which has become McCain's Ardennes Offensive), McCain is on defense, trying to shore up states that Bush lost and where he finds himself tied or behind. Even if McCain manages to flip Pennsylvania (and it doesn't seem likely as of yesterday's polling), that is offset by his probable losses in VA, CO, IA and NM(possible) which would still give Obama the win.
Simply put, McCain is in desparate shape, and he knows it. He's playing defense when he needs to be on offense. Holding the line won't be enough.
- mundye
October 29, 2008 at 3:28pm
I definitely agree with blackton. McCain isn't blazing new territory here so it shouldn't be very hard for Obama to respond and knock it out of the park. McCain's new rhetoric is certainly a step up from the maverick approach where you just spout out whatever you think of at the time but it won't be enough to save him.
- Simon Greenwood
October 29, 2008 at 3:28pm
Give me a break with the WHINING and FRETTING!!! Must you really so faithfully conform to liberal stereotypes? Jesus F***ing Christ, you're giving us all a bad name, Whimpy!
- ryanmacd
October 29, 2008 at 3:28pm
togolumb, thank you. At least someone else on this site has a grip. I understand the concern given the dashed hopes involving the prior two elections but please......Take a breath people and look at the state-by-state polls, early voting numbers and, most importantly, new registrants. I just don't see the disproportion new democratic voters not showing up to vote with this kind of excitement.
As far as McCain "finding" his message less than a week before the election day is so comical it will be historic.
And Jacobt1, are you insane?
- mpintar2
October 29, 2008 at 3:31pm
Now accepting nominations for the:
TOP TEN REASONS THE POLLS COULD TIGHTEN:
========================================
10. On October 31, the GOP will find the tape of a secret interview in which Obama confesses to being a Mooslim Operative Secretly in Touch with Osama bin Laden since 1998.
9. ...
- icarusr
October 29, 2008 at 3:40pm
Here's a reason the race could tighten, if not the polls - vote flipping!
wvgazette.com/.../200810180251
- psantillana
October 29, 2008 at 3:45pm
Jacob, you silly little troll. The obama campaign's credit card standards are well in line with any other modern campaign. It relies heavily on the honor system, which is a problem, but not FEC illegal. They do as much background check as possible, and spurious donations are always purged. Hay out of nothing. I'm glad that's all the wingnuts have left.
- daschaer
October 29, 2008 at 3:48pm
You have answered your own question: and not to your credit.
McCain has a shot; it's long; it's unlikely; but he will not, all a tremble, like a Shaking Aspen, give Obama a shivery blow job. He'll go down fighting, but he won't go down on Obama.
But you are so journalisitically invested in Obama that you identify with those whose knees quiver at the unlikelihood of coronation. You brook panic.
You typify this journal. TNR's stake in his victory, unprofessional to the point of derangement, has caused it to lose its journalistic good sense, is incredibly unseemly and I am near to certain has every thing to do with every down trending indicie for TNR, whose ultimate bad fate would not surprise me, though not please me.
- basman
October 29, 2008 at 3:48pm
Suck it up you whiny bitches! I understand that you're desperate for something to write about, so how about looking ahead to an Obama transition? How about setting some goals for Obama's first term? You all remind me of nothing so much as pre-2004 Red Sox fans, who were just waiting for their team to screw up at any given moment. Quit thinking like a loser!
- marcellusw101
October 29, 2008 at 3:50pm
9. The bush admin continues to attack targets deep in Syria and Afghanistan, provoking an international crisis.
- daschaer
October 29, 2008 at 3:50pm
I agree that McCain has finally found a theme that could conceivably be successful. But it's also easily riposted, and it has kind of irked me since spring that Obama has not taken this on directly. Simply put, if you're one of the 100 million American households who are not very rich, McCain proposes to charge you higher taxes than Obama. If you're one of those 100 million households, Obama wants to cut your taxes by an average of $1,000 a year more than McCain.
McCain balances his higher taxes on the vast majority of Americans with huge tax cuts for himself and other exceptionally rich people. So McCain is offering higher taxes for you and me, but more than $100,000 in tax cuts for himself. (Incorporating his wife's most recent tax return, I calculate an annual savings of almost $150,000 for the McCain household under his plan.) That's redistribution upwards, and it also devastates McCain's personal honor and "Country First" theme. Taking a half a million dollars out of the federal treasury and pocketing it like an African despot during wartime is not putting country first.
If anything, McCain is putting the country club first. Anyway, I wish someone on Obama's side would get personal with the benefits McCain is proposing for himself in light of the paltry tax cuts (as well as some tax increases) he's offering to real Americans.
- rhubarbs
October 29, 2008 at 3:51pm
Don't worry. Obama knows how to cheat:]
Try as I might, I cannot really understand how even a minimum standard of voting security can be maintained when, as an Ohio judge did yesterday, you decide to let the homeless vote. If there is no address — how do you check whether someone has voted before or whether they are using a real name? I get that the judge is attempting to enable fraud on behalf of his campaign — but how does this pass even a minimum test of reasonableness?
Remember how Obama won all of those caucuses, starting with Iowa, where Hillary had been running ahead in polls? According to a bunch of eyewitness, including former candidate Joseph Biden, many Iowa caucuses were won on the strength of voters bused in from Illinois. I hold it against Hillary that she didn't protest at the time. Now, of course, there is no protection to be had. These Chicago Obama supporters can vote in their own district, then get on busses to Ohio where they are now free to cite a given park bench or doorway as their residence, and vote again. I guess that's easier than bringing out the dead, which was the traditional Chicago practice. Although I'm sure they'll be voting too.
corner.nationalreview.com/post
- jacobt1
October 29, 2008 at 3:54pm
icarusr:
6. Judge's ruling that states must accept "park bench" as a valid address on voter registration forms makes Wall Street executives eligible to vote again, swelling GOP electorate.
- rhubarbs
October 29, 2008 at 3:57pm
Does the National Review really believe that it's possible to commit massive multiple-voting fraud?
I don't expect jacob, who is a very stupid person and an easily duped bigot, to bother to think through the simple practicalities of _how_ such a fraud would be perpetrated. But I do expect anyone else who pretends to be a rational adult to do so, including even the staff of the National Review. To swing even a close election in a meaningful state like Ohio, you'd need to create in excess of 120,000 fraudulent votes. Work out in your head even the simplest scenario by which you would engineer such an activity, and it doesn't hold water. It literally cannot be done, and even assuming it could be, the chances of detection are 100 percent. Who would rent all the buses? From where? What about the drivers?
And even the Ohio "park bench" ruling only affects registration, meaning that in order to take advantage of the fraud, all those nefarious Chicagoans would have had to have submitted "park bench" registrations a month ago. And even with the "park bench" ruling, Ohio law still requires voters to present proof of identity at the polling place, so all those Chicagoans would also have to have forged identity documents from Ohio.
You have to be an embarrassingly stupid person to believe the rightwing scare stories about voting fraud this year. I mean, really; the whole thing assumes that you'll simply repeat any lie they feed you without spending even 10 seconds thinking it through for yourself. Why the hell even have a brain if you're not going to use it?
- rhubarbs
October 29, 2008 at 4:20pm
daschaer said,
"The obama campaign's credit card standards are well in line with any other modern campaign"
It's just not true. They intentionally disabled a basic credit card verification. Clinton and McCain left the default system in place. It's obvious fraud. The fact that it doesn't bother Democrats just tell us the Democrats are not about democracy.
- jacobt1
October 29, 2008 at 4:25pm
Icarus...
7. The Republicans own all the voting-machine manufacturers.
- cspencef
October 29, 2008 at 4:28pm
"McCain has a shot; it's long; it's unlikely; but he will not, all a tremble, like a Shaking Aspen, give Obama a shivery blow job. He'll go down fighting, but he won't go down on Obama."
I don't quite know what to make of your key image, basman. It does seem to me, however, that while going down fighting is an honorable and laudable thing, to go down fighting for a campaign that seems to promise the opposite of what you've stood up for in the past, is schizophrenic to say the least.
What makes me a little sad is the McCain I liked and even admired went down, not on Obama, but on the GOP evangelical base in order to be accepted as someone he isn't.
I feel like uttering an 18th century burst of contempt of some kind, on the lines of: Sir, the world hath no physick to make a man hale again who hath poisoned his soul. Or something like that.
- ironyroad
October 29, 2008 at 4:31pm
ick,
6. Videotape surfaces of Obama, Michelle and Rev. White together singing "Gonna get me a shotgun and kill all da whiteys I see...."
- mundye
October 29, 2008 at 4:41pm
Woody: It's "Black Muslim communist" not "Black communist." You really have to take better notes.
marcellusw101 wrote: "Suck it up you whiny bitches!" I owe you a drink for that one.
This morning on the way to work I was behind a guy in a '55 Bel Air sedan. Two-tone: cranberry and cream. Big cartoon white sidewalls and a three on the tree. Guy had thinning hair. Car looked sharp but wasn't cherry.
Those old cars seem to just glide along, terrestrial manatees lumbering through the turns while the driver shifts, maybe turning with a Detroit Lean, as Chrissie sang halfway between now and when that Bel Air rolled off the assembly line.
I had "Boy from New York City" (the Manhattan Transfer version) on the CD player. The morning was crisp and clear, the sun low, casting its stark late fall shadows. The election was the furthest thing from my mind, thank the Goddess. I caught a whiff of smoke--burning leaves, maybe.
- williamyard
October 29, 2008 at 4:46pm
Continuing to accept nominations for the:
TOP TEN REASONS THE POLLS COULD TIGHTEN:
========================================
10. On October 31, the GOP will find the tape of a secret interview in which Obama confesses to being a Mooslim Operative Secretly in Touch with Osama bin Laden since 1998.
9. The bush admin continues to attack targets deep in Syria and Afghanistan, provoking an international crisis.
8. McCain publicly declares that he won't give Obama a blow job just because Obama's winning. (Sorry Itzik, but you've become a parody of yourself; the line wrote itself.)
7. The Republicans own all the voting-machine manufacturers.
6. Judge's ruling that states must accept "park bench" as a valid address on voter registration forms makes Wall Street executives eligible to vote again, swelling GOP electorate.
5 ...
- icarusr
October 29, 2008 at 4:52pm
Rhubarb asks "Does the National Review really believe that it's possible to commit massive multiple-voting fraud?"
Of course not. Republican claims of voting fraud are simply a pretext for their organized effort to prevent large groups of qualified Democratic-leaning voters from voting. Not surprisingly, they believe that suppressing Democratic turnout is the only way they can win.
- WayneJM
October 29, 2008 at 4:53pm
ironyroad said:
"What makes me a little sad is the McCain I liked and even admired went down, not on Obama, but on the GOP evangelical base in order to be accepted as someone he isn't."
Shocked, Shocked for Barack! The cheapest out if your'e a previously McCain-friendly pundit who wants to endorse Obama is to say you like McCain but can't vote for him because you're revolted by his campaign. It's an out elaborately developed by Joe Klein at Time, and it's an out Anne Applebaum takes in Tuesday's WaPo. Applebaum claims she's not reacting against McCain's "campaign" but rather to "institutional" deterioration in his "increasingly anti-intellectual, no longer even recognizably conservative" party. But all the examples she cites come from his campaign (Palin) or campaigning that's not even his (Sean Hannity's anti-Obama telecasts).. ...
The problem with the "I'm repulsed" argument is that while it's eminently respectable it's unserious. The campaign will be over soon. There is no reason to think McCain has actually changed what he wants to do on, say, immigration. Applebaum doesn't offer even a speculative argument as to why, with the election safely behind him, President McCain would have to truckle to his party's anti-amnesty contingent. That's because he wouldn't. He'd be much more likely to make immigration the basis for his first and perhaps only foray into bipartisanship--in effect, truckling to the pro-legalization forces. Nor has McCain "spent the past four months running away" from his longstanding immigration position. He's spent the past two months reasserting it.
I think Applebaum knows this. She's not a fool. If she really thinks that McCain's pre-campaign immigration policies--or his budget policies, or his torture policies--are right for the country, then she should be for McCain. Even if he's trying to win by running anti-Ayers ads. Even if his supporters "repulse" her. It's hard to believe that this repulsion isn't a convenient cover for some unstated, perhaps unconscious, pro-Obama imperative (or maybe simply for the imperative to come to a decision). ...
www.slate.com/.../default.aspx.
- jacobt1
October 29, 2008 at 4:58pm
Continuing to accept nominations for the:
TOP TEN REASONS THE POLLS COULD TIGHTEN:
========================================
10. On October 31, the GOP will find the tape of a secret interview in which Obama confesses to being a Mooslim Operative Secretly in Touch with Osama bin Laden since 1998.
9. The bush admin continues to attack targets deep in Syria and Afghanistan, provoking an international crisis.
8. McCain publicly declares that he won't give Obama a blow job just because Obama's winning. (Sorry Itzik, but you've become a parody of yourself; the line wrote itself.)
7. The Republicans own all the voting-machine manufacturers.
6. Judge's ruling that states must accept "park bench" as a valid address on voter registration forms makes Wall Street executives eligible to vote again, swelling GOP electorate.
5. Videotape surfaces of Obama, Michelle and Rev. Wright together singing "Gonna get me a shotgun and kill all da whiteys I see...."
- icarusr
October 29, 2008 at 5:00pm
ironyroad said:
"What makes me a little sad is the McCain I liked and even admired went down, not on Obama, but on the GOP evangelical base in order to be accepted as someone he isn't"
Shocked, Shocked for Barack! The cheapest out if your'e a previously McCain-friendly pundit who wants to endorse Obama is to say you like McCain but can't vote for him because you're revolted by his campaign. It's an out elaborately developed by Joe Klein at Time, and it's an out Anne Applebaum takes in Tuesday's WaPo. Applebaum claims she's not reacting against McCain's "campaign" but rather to "institutional" deterioration in his "increasingly anti-intellectual, no longer even recognizably conservative" party. But all the examples she cites come from his campaign (Palin) or campaigning that's not even his (Sean Hannity's anti-Obama telecasts).. ...
The problem with the "I'm repulsed" argument is that while it's eminently respectable it's unserious. The campaign will be over soon. There is no reason to think McCain has actually changed what he wants to do on, say, immigration. Applebaum doesn't offer even a speculative argument as to why, with the election safely behind him, President McCain would have to truckle to his party's anti-amnesty contingent. That's because he wouldn't. He'd be much more likely to make immigration the basis for his first and perhaps only foray into bipartisanship--in effect, truckling to the pro-legalization forces. Nor has McCain "spent the past four months running away" from his longstanding immigration position. He's spent the past two months reasserting it.
I think Applebaum knows this. She's not a fool. If she really thinks that McCain's pre-campaign immigration policies--or his budget policies, or his torture policies--are right for the country, then she should be for McCain. Even if he's trying to win by running anti-Ayers ads. Even if his supporters "repulse" her. It's hard to believe that this repulsion isn't a convenient cover for some unstated, perhaps unconscious, pro-Obama imperative (or maybe simply for the imperative to come to a decision).
www.slate.com/.../default.aspx
- jacobt1
October 29, 2008 at 5:01pm
Hooray for jacob -- he manages to cut'n'paste the same text twice!
Next step -- tying his own shoelaces, with no help. Give him some space, folks!
- ironyroad
October 29, 2008 at 5:38pm
William,
After I hit 'submit' I realized it should be "Negro communist!"
And yes, leaving out Muslim was a faux pas. I think they're going with the old "Moslem" spelling nowadays, too. Looks more sinister.
- WoodyBombay
October 29, 2008 at 5:45pm
Memo to all pundits, columnists, and TV talking heads:
Puhleeeeze stop juicing the notion that poor old dottering McCain is going to have a last minute (pardon the word) "SURGE". Every day that goes by the old warmongering-commie baiter is LOSING ground in the polls. Admit it, guys, you're just scared we won't tune in on election night to listen to you yap about the voting results. But don't worry, we'll be there, if for no other reason to watch the GOP blood bath take place. It has been a long time coming & I, for one, do NOT intend to miss a single drop of it hitting the floor.
- frilz1
October 29, 2008 at 5:52pm
The polls for the Presidential race may be tightening once again, but that hasn’t stopped vulnerable
- Anonymous
October 29, 2008 at 6:12pm
Here's my problem, which nobody has mentioned. How solid is Obama's support?
Yes, he has the lead in polls but how much of that margin will peel away due to a not-only-Bradley effect in which voters are looking for any excuse NOT to vote for a black, relatively inexperienced, foreign-sounding, fairly liberal guy. How many of those Pennsylvanians standing in the doorway saying, "We're voting for the n****r" will change their minds on Election Day? How many usual Republicans and independents are waiting with baited breath for McCain and his party to win them back?
What if the foundation Obama's standing on is not very solid? Do these polls have internals which reflect how "strongly" a voter says they support the candidate? If so, how do these internals pan out? Just because people say they support Obama now doesn't mean they can't change their mind, especially when many voters' relationship to him is tenuous at best, and it's not just an issue of race though that plays a factor too.
- CharlesFosterKane
October 29, 2008 at 6:18pm
I second CharlesFosterKane. I hope Obama's field people are savvy enough to act wisely in his stead. They must instill confidence in their support of him. The precinct captain: take a moment to ask your neighbors how they're doing, can you help them out on Election Day--give them a ride to the polls, mind the kids for a minute while they're in the booth? Oh and by the way, you hope they're looking forward like you are to Obama changing some of the rules in their favor. Etc. Just a calm voice can do wonders.
- williamyard
October 29, 2008 at 6:37pm
Also, this is sort of an irrelevant point, but how many states are operating GOTV campaigns only through Democratic headquarters? Aren't there a lot of Obama supporters who would like to push their candidate without handing out flyers and prompting voters to support the whole Dem ticket? I know there's at least one: me. Though I'm sure I'll grumble and get out there anyway this weekend - maybe I can throw away the Shaheen flyers at the doorstep. (Also, humorous anecdote, when I showed up for a GOTV meeting recently, they segued into an admonition to recycle at the HQ office. Just to remind us we weren't at a Republican meeting, I guess.)
- CharlesFosterKane
October 29, 2008 at 6:48pm
Relax folks, we'll know all in a week. In the meantime, you can amuse yourself with jacob's national review feed.
- I Majorajam
October 29, 2008 at 6:52pm
5. Leaked memo from Obama to Axelrod outlining his plan for an immediate pardoning of O.J. Simpson...
- jmc@420
October 29, 2008 at 7:29pm
4. Ballots in key swing states are "accidentally" printed with misspellings of his first name and leaving out his last name: "Osama Hussein (D)".
Hey, wait a second - ARE they putting his middle name on the ballot?
- CharlesFosterKane
October 29, 2008 at 7:35pm
Or I guess that would be Hussein Osama.
- CharlesFosterKane
October 29, 2008 at 7:35pm
And make that "first name" not "last name"...damn, it was funny in my head.
- CharlesFosterKane
October 29, 2008 at 7:36pm
blackton said:
"Anyway, I can go on. The only thing that can save McCain is Obama is black, nothing else."
I just read Pollster.com's Charles Franklin's column for today, and I recommend it to those who continue to fret about race.
pollster.com/.../charles-franklin
continuing...
"The media will report the polls are tightening because without a horse race, there will be no ratings. But these long lines in all of the early voting states, and reports coming out of them, coupled with Obama's overwhelming advantage in money and the ground game to get to the polls make it more likely that people will be expressing suprise next week at how big Obama's win was, not how close McCain has gotten."
My political instincts tell me the tightening is foremost a sign the base is coming home to McCain, less so that Obama is "abruptly" losing support. It is the natural and expected thing that McCain's support should firm up in the final week, and, while it is possible that independents and undecideds will significantly move in McCain's direction over the weekend, that still would not turn the trick for McCain, though it could mean a tighter finish than has been apparent over the past weeks.
- tomeg
October 29, 2008 at 7:36pm
Forgot the summary: blackton is right, if we are surprised Wednesday morning, it will be because Obama wins solidly to a landslide. I just don't see any other likely outcome when you step back and consider longer term trends vs. statistical noise as the day closes.
- tomeg
October 29, 2008 at 7:41pm
This all so silly. And it it reflects a major failing of blogging as an institution: bloggers have to say something even when there's nothing interesting or important to say.
Here you have an entire blog, two blogs really, devoted to the presidential race, and for the past three weeks or so it's been fairly well evident what the outcome of that race would be. Speaking for myself, I've certainly begun to tune out and concern myself with other things, and it is apparent that the TNR staffers who post here have been struggling to find scraps of interest around Obama's steady and fairly boring march to the White House.
So now the end is nigh, and frankly I think you guys don't know what the hell to do with yourselves. So you create crises.
Take a break and figure out what you'll write about after Nov 4.
- aeromonas
October 29, 2008 at 8:54pm
tomeg said:
"The only thing that can save McCain is Obama is black, nothing else."
It's other way around. The only thing that can save Obama is Obama is black, nothing else. A white leftist extremist with Obama's associations and lack of accomplishments would never have a chance to be even a senator.
- jacobt1
October 29, 2008 at 8:59pm
Look, let's not doubt people's sincerity about their repulsion, which is pretty much defined as subjective opinion. I find Sarah Palin a repulsive know-nothing fundamentalist, representative of the very worst our country has to offer. John McCain, a man of intelligence and a set of rather interesting, nondogmatic beliefs, has embraced her. This is something that I will never, ever understand.
- mcorey.geo
October 29, 2008 at 9:35pm
Jacobt1
"The only thing that can save Obama is Obama is black, nothing else. A white leftist extremist with Obama's associations and lack of accomplishments would never have a chance to be even a senator."
You're wrong again. First, in terms of accomplishments, what has McCain accomplished that makes him your candidate? Campaign finance reform? That worked?. What else? What does McCain offer you? His lifetime of government service?
Secondly, Obama has been right on Afganistan, right on the deficit, right on taxes and right on the economy. He's right on Iraq too. The fact that people feel Iraq has strategic importance is of no moment. We need allies and we would like to have Iraq as an ally, but only after we get out of there can we build any kind of lasting relationship. We've got low taxes (and high spending) now. It's effect on GNP has been overcome by the lack of confidence people have in government and confidence in the economy. We can't go on waging wars and lowering taxes. We need sensible government. Also, by the way, a majority of Jews are not snobs.
- Nusholtz
October 29, 2008 at 9:37pm
Predictably, McCain doesn't specifically aver just how he's going to make everyone successful, but coming from the quintessential broken record, this comes as little surprise.
- kevincollins
October 29, 2008 at 9:40pm
This is one of the goofiest threads I have yet to read. The Republicans are in a panic, throwing out anything and everything they can think of in the hope that something, somehow, will change the outcome. It won't. Obama has closed the deal and this is all a bunch of flailing about. The only people who are going to believe McCain at this point are those who are going to vote for him. The largest part of the "undecideds" are people who are not going to vote at all. Of the rest, they will break somewhere near 50:50 and, even if they didn't, the percentage change that would represent is now too small to matter. There will be a Bradley effect that will likely make the final tally of the popular vote closer than now appears, but Obama will win the Electoral College easily. I am told, but haven't bothered to check, that Nate Silver's simulations show that 375 votes for Obama is the single most likely outcome.
All the huffing and puffing up there is either sheer neurosis or the last chance for the McCain diehards to get a thrill out of pretending to themselves and everyone else that McCain still has a shot. He doesn't.
- roidubouloi
October 29, 2008 at 9:59pm
McCain might be within striking distance of the presidency today if he had told the Rove clique to go screw themselves and gone with his instinct to name Lieberman as running mate.
I wouldn't have been inclined to vote for them, but I bet a lot of people would have been attracted to that ticket, and it would have preseved his reputation as a "maverick."
Instead he kissed the cold unfriendly ass of the Republican evangelical base, and bought himself a whole lot of trouble named Palin.
Nobody really forced him to do that. He became the GOP candidate in a situation where the Republicans were hiding in trenches after the meltdown of Romney and Guiliani. He could have had a clear field -- saying to the base, "Be with me if you want, stay at home if you don't want, but this is the way the journey is going." That would have won him independents big time.
I'll never understand it.
- ironyroad
October 29, 2008 at 10:01pm
Irony, I'm not so sure though I too would have much preferred that campaign. It might have cut into Obama's numbers somewhat but he could have stuck to his tried-and-true "McCain & Bush are the same on economics" line nonetheless. I think the Lieberman choice followed by McCain's still probable dramatics in the wake of the financial crisis would have made the "erratic" meme inevitable, and a lot of Republicans would still have jumped ship. They say they are dismayed by Palin and McCain's tone but really I suspect a lot of them are just excited by Obama; to the right-of-center who are not ideologues they see him as another Kennedy, Roosevelt, or Reagan and they don't want to be on the wrong side of history.
But at least McCain would go down with some dignity in your scenario.
- CharlesFosterKane
October 29, 2008 at 11:33pm
Nusholtz said:
" He's right on Iraq too. We need allies and we would like to have Iraq as an ally, but only after we get out of there can we build any kind of lasting relationship. "
You are the only person who know Obama's position on Iraq. FYI, He proposes to leave 50K troops in Iraq.
- jacobt1
October 30, 2008 at 12:39am
Jacobt1
I assume that you agree that we can't build a lasting relationship with Iraq until we leave and that getting out of Iraq is the way to go. Obama wants out of Iraq and wants to focus on retribution against Al Qaeda. By the way, contrary to your posts, the majority of jews are not snobs.
- Nusholtz
October 30, 2008 at 8:02am