SUBSCRIBE NOW WELCOME BACK. Do you want to continue reading where you left off? New Republic subscribers can pick up where they left off no matter which device they were previously using. SUBSCRIBE NOW

Go Home Clinton The Independent Favorite? Pshaw.

THE PLANK JANUARY 2, 2008

Clinton The Independent Favorite? Pshaw.

BY JONATHAN CHAIT

 

I think the most interesting news about the Des Moines Register poll is that it shows, again, how much more appeal Barack Obama has with swing voters than does Hillary Clinton. Indeed, all sides now seem to agree that the outcome of the caucus will depend on how many independent or Republican voters, who strongly favor Obama, will actually caucus. It's reminiscent of the 2000 Republican primary contest between John McCain, who had enormous crossover appeal, and George W. Bush, the favorite of party regulars. (I'm quite confident McCain would have won easily had he acptured the nomination.)

My colleague Jonathan Cohn, alas, has taken a rare leave from his senses to suggest that perhaps Clinton has more swing voter appeal than Obama. Jon's argument is that Clinton tends to win among less-educated voters, who are probably more similar to the profile of swing voters in a general election. To his credit, Jon only floats the possibility, but the possiiblity makes little sense to me.

First, a swing voter can be whoever you want him to be. Any voter you can take away from the other party is a swing voter. Rudy Giuliani would appeal to secular hawkish swing voters, Mike Huckabee would appeal to downscale socially conservative swing voters. Etc. It may be true that Obama's appeal is strongest among educated moderates, but that surely trumps Clinton, who seems to have no appeal whatsoever to swing voters.

Second, I strongly doubt that you can generalize from divisions within the Democratic base to the general electorate. Downscale Democrats have a strong loyalty to Clinton and are more reluctant to support a new name. That's hardly the case among downscale swing voters. I don't think there's anythig intrinsic about Hillary Clinton that gives her a natural appeal to blue-collar voters. Her support is a function of being the more familiar and established figure.

--Jonathan Chait

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

Show all 8 comments

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

8 comments

Your point is very well taken, but I think it's equally specious to project from the Iowa experience to the general election for Obama--aside from a strong lack of negativity directed toward Sen. Obama (minor Clintonattacks aside), Obama has had the ability to do a great deal of retail campaigning, which plays to his major strength.  How that will project to the general election is anyone's guess.

- sprechs

January 2, 2008 at 12:59pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Michael Crowley observes:  "Although as one (deeply skeptical) aide to one rival candidate put it to me yesterday, 'If Obama can really turn out that many independents, he's going to win in a blowout, and I hope he's the nominee, because he'll kill the Republican, too.'"

But notice that the aide's skepticism is not directed at whether Obama really has support among independents -- only at whether he can successfully get those supporters to caucus.  But no matter what happens at the caucus, you can count on independents to vote heavily in the general election.  So that aide ought to hope Obama is the nominee, regardless of whether the independents actually caucus -- because "he'll kill the Republican" in the general election.

- liebig

January 2, 2008 at 1:27pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

The only real swing candidate out there is McCain hands down, and hence he is the candidate the Democrats have to fear the most. Obama or Clinton against Romney will come down to which side can have less bigotry, either case I see a record low turnout for Presidency. Edwards would clean Romneys clock but get cleaned by McCain. If it is Clinton vs. Guiliani I will move to Canada or hang myself.

- blackton

January 2, 2008 at 2:03pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

I agree with you entirely that the argument that Clinton's appeal to independents is pretty weak. It's hard to believe that the vast majority of those lower class voters who prefer her over Obama in the primary would dump him (were he the nominee) in the general for Huckabee, Romney or even McCain.

- BHLnyc

January 2, 2008 at 2:37pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

My colleague Jonathan Chait suggests , gently, that I am off my rocker for even suggesting that Hillary

- Anonymous

January 2, 2008 at 3:24pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

I'm crashing on a web piece for tomorrow, so I can't get too bogged down in this, but I did want

- Anonymous

January 2, 2008 at 4:47pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

In the great Jo(h)n wars of 2008, I'm afraid I have to take Chait's side . Moreover, I have a

- Anonymous

January 2, 2008 at 11:39pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Overnight all three of the leading Democratic presidential contenders began airing “closing messages

- Anonymous

January 3, 2008 at 10:42am

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

SHARE HIGHLIGHT

0 CHARACTERS SELECTED

TWEET THIS

POST TO TUMBLR

SHARE ON FACEBOOK

Close