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Go Home Frank Luntz's Well-informed Focus Group

THE PLANK JANUARY 10, 2008

Frank Luntz's Well-informed Focus Group

BY JOSH PATASHNIK

Fox News had a Frank Luntz focus group on just now after tonight's Republican debate. One of the participants actually just said, "You might say South Carolina is like the Dixville Notch of America." Aside from the fact that this analogy doesn't make much sense (wouldn't it be, you know, New Hampshire or Iowa?), are there that many actual, ordinary voters who know what the significance of Dixville Notch is? Isn't it just political junkies? Makes you sort of wonder (again) where he's getting his focus-group participants...

For what it's worth, everyone seems to agree that Fred Thompson had a great night. I sort of doubt it's even possible for Fred to resurrect his candidacy at this point, but if he does somehow manage to win South Carolina, I think it would really benefit...Rudy Giuliani. The biggest problem with Rudy's otherwise-brilliant Ohio State strategy (wait on the sidelines while everyone else loses and then rise to the top of the polls--sorry, Ezra) is that there aren't enough Pittsburghs and Oklahomas in the Republican race to knock off the favorites: anytime one candidate loses, another has to win, and the risk for Rudy is that someone (either McCain or Huckabee) will win both Michigan and South Carolina and there will be a genuine frontrunner by the time Florida rolls around. If Fred comes out of nowhere to South Carolina, the result would be chaos, and in that scenario it's at least possible to see Rudy winning Florida with 25-30 percent of the vote, doing well on Super Tuesday, and stumbling into the nomination.

--Josh Patashnik 

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11 comments

I think Colbert said it best last night when he pretended to be Giuliani, commenting on his opponents: "Those fools! They think they can win...by winning."

- ZACummings

January 11, 2008 at 2:23am

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Ha, ha!  I KNOW.  "Dixville Notch."  Only political insiders like us know references like that.  HA!  

If, um...some ignorant fools out there didn't know what that meant (not ME, mind you...I TOTALLY got the reference), how would some of you explain it to them?

- drdannyu

January 11, 2008 at 9:07am

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From Wikipedia:

Dixville Notch is an unincorporated small village, with a population of approximately 75, in the Dixville township of Coos County, New Hampshire, USA. The town is known for being one of the first places to declare its results for the New Hampshire Presidential primary and U.S. Presidential elections.[1] It is located in the far north of the state, approximately 20 mi (32 km) from Canada.

Now - if someone understands what Frank Luntz meant, that would be helpful.  Dixville Notch is famous for being the first of the first -- South Carolina is not first at all, so I don't get how it can be the Dixville Notch of America.  Anyone else get this?

Neil

- purcellneil

January 11, 2008 at 9:22am

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Neil:

Maybe the person meant to say the Dixville Notch of Dixie.  Now that would have been catchy and it would have made sense.

Another thought.  I didn't think it would ever happen again, but the Repubs might actually go to their convention without a pre-determined nominee.  If Thompson were to win South Carolina, that possibility grows ever more.  Wow, would that be a sight to see.  The GOP nominee would almost certainly be doomed, but it would be interesting, in  a political junkie sort of way.

- Brent

January 11, 2008 at 9:44am

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I'm guessing the person was implying that South Carolina is the first "real" primary test because it's a much larger state than either Iowa or New Hampshire, has a more diverse population, is the first state in the crucial South, is where the Civil War began (sorry, the War Between the States), is known for something callled "palmettos"....who knows? But sounds like a general slam at the corn farmers and New England Yankees, as in "now the race really begins".

Maybe it'll become contagious. As in, February 5th is the Dixville Notch of the national campaign and the conventions are the Dixville Notch of the general election and election day is the Dixville Notch of a new era in America! You get it.

- schrek2000

January 11, 2008 at 10:06am

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I think that there was a late-period episode of The West Wing that featured the President trying to hound votes in Dixville.  That's the only place that I can imagine a non-political junkie would have found out about this.

I had to look it up, too.

- kerouac9

January 11, 2008 at 10:11am

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Neil, thanks for taking the time to educate...um...those OTHER people.

And Brent, if there isn't a predetermined candidate going into the GOP convention (and I don't know if I dare hope for such a glorious, glorious possibility to unfold), I will actually tune in, every night, with a big bowl of popcorn to watch.

In that light, GO THOMPSON!  

- drdannyu

January 11, 2008 at 10:14am

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Dicks-ville Notch, perhaps? Some kind of obscure allusion to the feats of small-town swordsmen, or maybe the male, northern version of the Dixie Chicks...

Mr Yard, can you enlighten?

- teplukhin2you

January 11, 2008 at 1:53pm

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Not to thwart the Ohio strategy theory, Josh, but Pittsburgh is not a hotbed for drawing in Republican delegates. Democratic registration in the city outranks Republicans by a 5-1 margin, leaving few Republican voters.

And it was Frank Luntz, who before Ezra, made the point about the detracting use of sports analogies in politics in his book "Words That Work."

- Onnword

January 11, 2008 at 3:15pm

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Hmm, an undecided Republican convention.  Tasty thought.  Or perhaps the closest thing to blood sport you can get without pay-per-view.  I might even take the week off for that one...

kerouac9; didn't the West Wing episode actually change the name of the hamlet?  

As for Rudy's "Ohio State strategy," it only works if you "beat Michigan," and last I heard Giuliani was sinking even further in Florida, hence the new desperation ads...

- cspencef

January 11, 2008 at 4:24pm

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OK, a more recent poll has Giuliani not falling off so badly, but still trailing McCain, with Romney and Huck at his heels.  Still, not exactly "beating MIchigan"...

- cspencef

January 11, 2008 at 10:52pm

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