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Go Home Huckabee's Kryptonite

THE PLANK OCTOBER 23, 2007

Huckabee's Kryptonite

BY TNR STAFF AND TNR STAFF

  Everyone (including Chuck Norris) seems to be getting very excited about Mike Huckabee--and with good reason. The guy is engaging, funny, and charismatic; he's also a (former) governor from a southern state. When Noam Scheiber predicted on this blog a few months ago that Huckabee's second-place finish in the Iowa Straw Poll meant that he--Huckabee--had finally arrived, I was skeptical. But it looks like Noam was right, and if the latest polls are any indication, Huckabee has a good shot at winning Iowa. Moreover, a Republican advising a rival campaign told me recently that he thought Huckabee could be the GOP's best bet to beat Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Clearly, this is the governor's moment.And yet, reading Amy Sullivan's excellent piece in Time today, I was reminded that not only is Huckabee a preacher, but he also enjoys referring to abortions in this country as a "holocaust."Now, it's certainly true that Bush's appeal to "values voters" helped him win re-election. And I agree with people like Ramesh Ponnuru and Ross Douthat who argue that the GOP's future lies not with its libertarian wing, but rather in appealing to social conservatives and the middle-class.However, this is not that conservative a country. And the last few years (where Democrats, too, have decided they can run as far left as they want on economic issues as long as they stay "family friendly") have tended to obscure the fact that there is a fragile and consistent pro-choice majority in this country. Moreover, we may be a religious nation, but in the final analysis I think it's highly unlikely that we are going to elect a president who frequently appears to be giving sermons, not speeches. Huckabee is an exciting figure, and I understand why grassroots voters and the media adore him. But I just don't think it's realistic to believe that he'll be the next president.

 --Isaac Chotiner 

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12 comments

No way will Huckabee ever be President.  But he would make a formidable candidate for veep.  In fact, I'll be mildly surprised if he isn't on the ticket.

- ratnerstar

October 23, 2007 at 10:25am

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I concur ratner. I have been reading a bit lately about Huck and he is an extremely affable guy whose intelligence is pretty obvious. However, his first vocation was preacher and he tends to get on the soapbox and hurl terms like "holocaust" when referring to abortion. This will leave a sour taste in the mouths of the vast majority of independents. He would be unelectable, I think, as the pres candidate. He would do well as veep though.

- awrobi01

October 23, 2007 at 10:31am

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Sorry to do this, but I'm just testing the new site, which I happen to hate.

--stgla

- stgla

October 23, 2007 at 10:49am

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Trying to get back up on this frigging horse.

Huckabee is nothing if not personable.  But I think he appeals to far too narrow a portion of the electorate, who have already enjoyed the peak of their influence (or, perhaps, exploitation?) under Rove.  And, while I think the American people are not, perhaps, as pro-choice as the Democrats may think, neither do I think that they will agree that abortion is a "holocaust."

And, at the risk of having my comment yanked because it is "off topic," I am really hoping that this new design grows on me.

- drdannyu

October 23, 2007 at 11:04am

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The hypothesis that Americans aren't willing to elect a personable Southern governor whose best speeches sound more like sermons would be a lot more convincing if Bill Clinton and George W. Bush hadn't just won four elections in a row.

<p>There are several Republican candidates who scare me as potential presidents. But Huckabee is the only candidate who scares me as a potential Republican nominee. I'm just not sure he's beatable.

- rhubarbs

October 23, 2007 at 11:20am

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My comments are required! How exciting! People never seem to require my comments in real life.

Huckabee strikes me (and, I think, quite a few people) as a genuinely good person, someone sincere but who can laugh at himself, honest and morally principled. Who wouldn't root for someone like that to triumph over people such as Romney and Giuliani -- I'd rather the good guy win.

So that's why I root for Huckabee -- it's on a contest level. When one thinks about what one wants in a president, I think it's clear he's not what one wants. Abortion is a subject about which reasonable people may disagree; however, he overstates his case. Evolution is not a subject about which reasonable people may disagree, and I don't want an unreasonable president.

In short, I'd like to see Huckabee triumph, but I wouldn't like to see the fruits of that triumph be national elective office.

DrDan, you certainly are dreamy-eyed!

- epicciuto

October 23, 2007 at 11:33am

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Gad, I miss being able to post a subject header.

Epic, I'm trying to add you as a "friend," because if there's one thing I lamented about TNR, it was that it didn't feel enough like my high school cafeteria.  However, I haven't figured out how to do so.  But here...here, on a thread ostensibly dedicated to Mike Huckabee (who, to his credit, acquitted himself well on "Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me"), I proclaim to the heavens that you are my friend.  (*Sha na na na*)

And, while I may like Mike on a personal level, certainly more than any of the "front runners," I don't want him appointing Supreme Court justices.

- drdannyu

October 23, 2007 at 11:43am

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Huckabee is the Republicans best general election bet because he can talk in code to the religious conservatives without sounds crazy to the rest of the country. He has a reassuring, folksy, brotherly manner to him. He's like a love child between Billy Graham and Ronald Reagan.

He scares me.

- adamvaught

October 23, 2007 at 11:48am

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Drdan's point about appointing Justices is the most bracing for me.  The two most likely to retire next are Stevens and Ginsburg; the latter may ride out another four years, but I doubt the former will.  A six-strong right wing majority for the next decade and change is too frightening to contemplate.

- adaglas

October 23, 2007 at 12:12pm

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I was pretty big on Mike Huckabee before. Thought he was the Howard Dean of 2008. Thought he might actually win the nomination. Despite the recent straw poll, I've changed my mind. The guy has NO money. None. He's had ample opportunities and he's still a piss poor fundraiser. Plus, he has the Club For Growth gunning for him. Whatever he manages to spend in Iowa, they'll triple it. And, while that straw poll result might have been rigged by the Romney supporters online, the press still ran with the "religious right divided" line. Grassroots social conservatives are flocking to him but the theocon elite are lining up behind Mitt Romney. If this keeps up, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Rudy Giuliani wins the Iowa Caucus.

The speech Huckabee gave at the Value Voters Summit was phenomenal, but he never gets that fired up and angry in front of non-Christian-Right crowds. If there is any kind of Huckabee surge from that, or another Huckabee surge I should say, it only goes to benefit Rudy Giuliani. A house divided wins him the Republican nomination.

- g.mcentire

October 23, 2007 at 8:50pm

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PS- And all that's not to say I don't still think Mike Huckabee is clearly the Republicans' strongest candidate. He very much is. But don't overlook his economic populism. Social conservatives make alot of noise, but they don't control the Republican Party; big business does. There's no way he'll ever be acceptable to them.

- g.mcentire

October 23, 2007 at 8:54pm

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And DrDan -- I hereby proclaim our mutuality of friendship!

- epicciuto

October 23, 2007 at 10:17pm

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